They say it does not pay to make predictions. But this maxim does not seem to apply to Ukrainian politicians. We may have all forgotten that, according to the estimates of the Orange revolution leaders, Ukraine was supposed to join NATO next year. Likewise, two to three years ago Ukraine was seen as being very close to launching negotiations about its accession to the EU. Now no one can say when Ukraine will join the alliance or even when we are going to switch from the Action Plan to membership in NATO. Our European prospects look even more distant.
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych decided to offer his own forecast the other day. At a press conference following his trip to Luxembourg he expressed the hope that within the next 10 years Ukraine will succeed in raising its social standards to the European level, which will help the country in its European integration. According to him, European integration is the current stage in Ukraine’s relations with its strategic partners. “This work requires careful, correct formulations that will define Ukraine’s path during these 10 years,” Yanukovych was quoted as saying by Interfax. In his opinion, “stable industrial growth...gives us an opportunity to raise social standards and approach European standards.”
The Ukrainian leader positively evaluated his participation in the meeting of the Ukraine-EU Cooperation Council and said that “from words about partnership we moved on to practical issues.” As reported, during the meeting both sides signed agreements on readmission, a relaxation of the visa regime, and trade in certain steel products. Yanukovych also said that the future Ukraine- EU treaty now under discussion will offer new tools for cooperation and bring Ukraine closer to joining the EU.
Valerii CHALY, deputy director of the Razumkov Center:
“I can only support the prime minister in his forecast and desire to reach a level of socioeconomic development that would allow us to speak about EU membership. The main thing is that this needs to be put into practice. For several years now over 50 percent of Ukrainian citizens have believed that we are capable of joining the EU within 10 years, which is an even more ambitious goal. But there are a few “buts.” We used to have many programs for European integration, not bad ones at that. (The current government has no such program.) There is only one problem — implementation. It is not enough to declare this kind of wish-one needs to clearly define a countrywide program of measures to be carried out. Of course, this cannot be done if the political elite has not articulated a distinct joint position on EU and NATO integration, which would be based on Ukraine’s national interests. It also has to convince Ukrainian citizens that this is a realistic direction that unites all branches of government and all political and business groups. Today the situation is favorable because the issue of European integration is supported by the majority of the population. Therefore, there should be no delays in taking real steps and increasing social standards. And this will not be done because of populism or looming elections but through economic reforms and increased efficiency, which will only later be followed by raised social standards. Until this is done, it is unlikely that any forecasts will be realized.
“Economy is closely tied to politics. We cannot talk about joining the European Union without reforming the economy of the country and without adopting European standards for economic competition, energy conservation, and environmental protection, nor is this possible without overcoming political corruption and without an effective judicial and political system. Furthermore, one should not speak about the possible implementation of European standards without first applying them to the governance of the state and its territories, without a proper attitude to people, and without a view of the state service as being ordered by the citizens who finance it by paying taxes.
“As far as Ukraine’s prospects are concerned, let us remember that, according to the World Bank, in July 2006 the average per capita GDP calculated using the method of purchasing power parity was $25,011 in the EU, $8,420 in Turkey, and $7,080 in Macedonia (both countries are EU candidates). Among the countries participating in the European Neighborhood Policy Ukraine is not trailing behind with its $6,720 per capita, or 29.9 percent of the average European level. Speaking about Ukraine’s lag, we can compare our country, for the sake of example, with Romania and Bulgaria. Both are EU members and have a GDP of $8,940 and $8,630 per capita, respectively. In other words, Ukraine is not lagging behind so drastically. If the current growth rate persists, Ukraine will indeed be capable of catching up. However, besides purchasing power parity, there are other indices according to which Romania and Bulgaria are ahead of Ukraine.”
Hryhorii NEMYRIA, director of the Center for European and International Studies, Kyiv:
“Unfortunately, Yanukovych has repeated the mistake that Ukrainian politicians have made countless times already. He gives a date and a goal, but the means for achieving this goal remain unknown. To determine what European standards are, you need to say what exactly you have in mind. For example, social standards may be interpreted within the framework of the Lisbon Strategy, but it may just as well be something else. What Yanukovych had in mind is not known. It is a mistake to give a date and a goal when it is not clear what this goal is, and what the main means for achieving it are. Evidently, Yanukovych just made a purely populist claim that dovetails neatly with his phenomenal thesis about switching to practical rhetoric. I think this statement is the first example of what Yanukovych meant when he spoke about practical rhetoric. In this case, this practical rhetoric is connected, in my opinion, with the elections campaign that has de facto begun in Ukraine. But it has nothing to do with the policy aimed at Europeanizing Ukraine.
“I believe that Ukraine’s Europeanization is synonymous with Ukraine’s modernization. The prime minister would have to explain what this is all about. For example, is it a contradiction that we have separate certification standards that are different from the European ones, and at the same time we are trying to integrate into the EU? These standards were deliberated in parliament not so long ago and again separate Ukrainian standards were approved. In fact, this is a source of corruption when a mismatch in standards is being explained by the presumable superiority of Ukrainian standards over European ones. This is an example a thesis on EU integration contradicting real political steps that the coalition is taking with the support of the Cabinet of Ministers.
“Yanukovych’s slogan of “building Europe in Ukraine” was borrowed from Oleksandr Moroz, but it hasn’t been tested yet. Then a number of issues arise, for example, “Did the changes in legislation make this law more European?” No. We took four steps back from the standards that existed even during the parliamentary elections in 2006. The second question and the second test are about the principled position of the current government toward the need for creating special economic zones, which are in fact black holes and tax havens. Is this what it means to build Europe in Ukraine? Or is it perhaps the construction of some other system of a controlled economy with a selective approach to various businesses? Or take the management method, when during cabinet meetings the prime minister says that, if the price for bread is not lowered by the following week, three ministers will be fired. Is this part of constructing Europe in Ukraine? Is this Yanukovych-style controlled democracy?”
Michael EMERSON, an expert at the Center for European Policy Studies, Brussels:
“It would be good to know what Yanukovych meant by European social standards. If he is talking about raising the standards of political government, democracy, and corporate management, that would be a very good idea.
“As far as purely social standards are concerned, they embrace many spheres, for example, health protection. It would be wonderful to raise standards in this area as well. As far as reaching the average European standard of living is concerned, this will take more than 10 years.
“If Yanukovych meant reaching the average standard of living of EU members during this period, then this is most likely populism. To actually reach this level, Ukraine will have to have a comprehensive economic policy, good governance, separation of government from business, and suppressed corruption. And this is the most ordinary order of actions.”
