The situation around the supply of French helicopter carriers Mistral to Russia is taking an unusual turn. As is known, many NATO members, as well as Ukraine and Georgia, oppose the supply of these most up-to-date amphibious assault ships being built at the STX France shipyard in Saint Nazaire. What prompted them to take this attitude was a statement of the Russian military that Mistrals could have helped them complete the aggression against Georgia in a matter of hours. Kyiv has also expressed to Paris its concern over the supply of helicopter carriers, one of which has already been named Sevastopol and will be based in the Black Sea.
The United States is very actively coming out against the supply of Mistrals to Russia, offering to buy out these landing ships for NATO. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the now former Secretary General of NATO, has been repeatedly saying that it is no other than France that should make a decision about the supply of Mistrals with due account of the current security situation in the region. It was not in fact until the EU and the US imposed new sanctions on Russia that French President Francois Hollande announced on September 4 that the decision on the delivery of two helicopter carriers would be made in late October, depending on the situation in Ukraine.
However, Interfax AVN quoted the other day a source in the Russian shipbuilding industry as saying that the first amphibious assault ship Vladivostok of the Mistral class would be handed over to Russia on November 4, 2014. In his turn, Igor Sevastianov, deputy director general of the Russian Defense Export Authority, told ITAR-TASS that the acceptance statement would be signed in Saint-Nazaire in late October – early November 2014.
Then Poland suddenly decided to intervene into the Mistral supply story, presenting its bargaining chips. It is in fact a Polish ultimatum. In other words, Warsaw is threatening that France may be denied a six-billion-euro antimissile defense contract should it supply Mistrals to Russia. The likely delivery of Mistrals to Russia may make it difficult for Poland to choose French suppliers for the installation of its own antimissile shield, Poland’s Defense Minister Tomasz Siemoniak told the newspaper Rzeczpospolita. “We are taking a dim view of this agreement [on Mistrals]. Nobody has even hidden this fact from our French partners. I do not want to play the role of the one who sets conditions to France. I am sure France will make a wise and crucial decision, remembering that it is a NATO member and knowing the opinion of its other allies,” Siemoniak said.
Last June Poland chose the French weapons-making company Thales and its US rival Raytheon as two final bidders for a new antimissile defense system. Under a 5.8-billion-euro-worth contract, it will take 10 years to do the job. Earlier, Poland had decided to earmark 33.6 billion euros for updating its military equipment within 10 years, which includes purchase of the antimissile shield, armored personnel carriers, submarines, and drones. It will be recalled that the French-Russian deal is estimated at 1.6 billion dollars. And Paris will perhaps have to think twice before making the final decision on the supply of Mistrals.
What do French people themselves think of the Polish ultimatum? Is the French defense sector afraid to lose an almost 6-billion-euro-worth Polish contract?
“FRANCE CANNOT AND MUST NOT ASSIST RUSSIA, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN ITS ATTEMPTS TO DESTABILIZE UKRAINE”
Tatiana KASTUEVA-JEAN, manager of the Russie.NEI.Visions program at the French Institute of International relations, Paris:
“The Mistral sale deal has become a real thorn in the side of French-Russian relations as well as in the relations with such countries as the US, Poland, and the Baltic States. The deal, made during Nicolas Sarkozy’s presidency as part of rapprochement with Russia, was aimed at finally closing the cold war page. That was an act of trust on the part of France with respect to Russia, for which the former immediately came under the criticism of its EU and NATO partners, first of all, the Baltic countries and Poland. The Ukraine crisis has totally changed the context of this deal. France is facing a very difficult dilemma today. It is actually facing a choice between the two options: bad and very bad. The bad one is not to sell the Mistrals. This mostly involves economic and reputation-related risks. It is about a large amount of money (1.2 billion euros) to be paid to Russia, to which a fine will be added. This will also impede the creation of jobs at the Saint-Nazaire shipyard. In the contest of an economic crisis and a very sensitive problem of unemployment in France, this decision will not add popularity to President Hollande. It should be noted, though, that the shipyard manager claimed in a summer interview that his list of orders was full until 2018. Failure to sell the Mistrals will also close the Russian and perhaps some other markets to French arms-makers. Besides, this will impair France’s military budget which depends on the export of armaments. The other option – to carry out the contract and supply the Mistrals – is still worse. As a NATO member that guarantees the security of the Baltic countries and Poland, France cannot afford to sell the Mistrals without tarnishing its political, military, and strategic reputation. France cannot and must not assist Russia, directly or indirectly, in its attempts to destabilize Ukraine. The price of such a decision will also be the loss of the Western bloc’s solidarity and the loss of, this time, the Polish market of armaments, judging by the ‘Polish ultimatum.’
“For these reasons, France was not exactly rushing to make a final decision. The latter was postponed in the eve of a NATO summit under the pressure of American and some European partners. The more the decision was put off, the more additional difficulties were added to the problem. The point is that 400 Russian naval servicemen have been training in France at the first to-be-supplied helicopter carrier since the early summer. Yet a decision will still have to be made, and the moment of choice is coming up.
“France is under pressure from both the outside and the inside. Various political forces (first of all, the increasingly influential, judging by the latest election results, National Front, a far right party), the economic and military circles, and many experts favor the sale of Mistrals. But there are many opponents, too. Last summer, Saint-Nazaire saw rallies for and against the sale. French society is divided in half. What final decision will France make? It is so far impossible to say exactly what the final choice will be. As long as the situation in eastern Ukraine remains somewhat frozen by the ceasefire agreement and the law of the special status of some eastern regions, and there are no radical changes and ground-breaking events which could tip the balance, both options remain open. Unfortunately, we must say clearly that Ukraine should be prepared to see the Mistrals being handed over to Russia in the long run. This will undoubtedly have a very negative effect on the French-Ukrainian relations and the image of France in Ukraine.”
