The meeting of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev did not result in any official reports. So one can make an unambiguous conclusion from their one-on-one conversations in Bocharov Ruchei: the visit of the Ukrainian president was a disaster.
The Kremlin anonymous sources also confirm this: they have informed that “Russia emphasized the need to stick to the current [gas. – Ed.] contracts and the inadmissibility to politicize this issue.” However, as usual, the secret mixture of gas and politics turned out to be quite a dangerous substance. Despite the source’s assurances that the possibilities of compromise still exist, only few people believe in it both in Moscow and in Kyiv.
The Moscow attempts to attract Ukraine to the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan were abortive, too. Medvedev spoke about “the possible parameters of cooperation between Ukraine and the Customs Union” and did not accept Yanukovych’s suggestions emphasizing that his formula “three plus one” does not answer these purposes. According to the abovementioned source, this cooperation [with the Customs Union. – Author] is only possible on the principles of the full-fledged membership of Ukraine in the Customs Union. In turn, Yanukovych might have been uncompromising since he campaigns for the membership of Ukraine in the European free trade area. Briefly, it is the case of diamond cut diamond. And is this what follows the mutual vows about friendship and understanding?
Head of NUNS fraction and the Parliament Committee for the Fuel-Energy Complex Mykola Martynenko concedes that Russia is unlikely to revise the gas contracts before the presidential election. He has informed the UNIAN that “on the one hand, the concessions of the Russian government would be considered a weakness in the eyes of the Russian electorate. On the other hand, Moscow has clearly pointed out the groundlessness of the Ukrainian prosecutor’s accusations that the 2009 contracts are illegal, especially taking into account that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is one of their [contracts. – Ed.] initiators.”
Martynenko is sure that the economic arguments of Ukraine willing to revise the gas contracts are cogent enough. He makes the possibility to reduce the basic gas price conditional on the fact that the Ukrainian market is the largest European one for Gazprom whereas the company Hazprom-zbut of Ukraine owns 25 percent of the market. Besides, the major part of the gas supply to Ukraine occurs in the summer. The MP calls upon the Ukrainian officials not to waste their energy and taxpayers’ money for the flights to Moscow but concentrate on the energy saving, gas supply diversification and development of the new energy sources. Moreover, he suggests “following the example of the Western companies that proceed against Gazprom.” “If Russia does not want to compromise, our government should have the courage to resort to arbitration,” Martynenko said and continued: “To do this the Ukrainian government needs the political will and the ability to fight fire with fire...”
However, today we can only guess what a fencing happened in Bocharov Ruchei. It is possible that Medvedev had to accept the backstroke. On the same day the Crimean weekly Sobytiia wrote that Sevastopol authorities, who were recently re-staffed by Yanukovych, had revised the price formula for the Russian Black Sea Fleet location. The Sevastopol authorities are going to introduce the new rent price starting from 2012 and this has been already sent to Kyiv and Moscow. When speaking on the local television the deputy mayor of Sevastopol Volodymyr Arabadzhi told about two methods. The first one shows that the city is underpaid by Kyiv for the location of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Besides, according to Arabadzhi, the city receives money for the infrastructure development from Moscow. “We have developed the second method and proved it right at the inter-departmental commission for the Black Sea Fleet. Previously, head of the Sevastopol budget commission Petro Kudriashov informed that the sum of money Sevastopol received as the compensation for the Russian Black Sea Fleet location [in 2011 the city expects to receive 41.2 million hryvnias. – Author] is to total at least 200 million hryvnias in 2012.
Besides, just before the Sochi talks they announced the decision of the court providing that the Ukrainian executive service was permitted to return the hydrographic objects in Crimea that had been previously used by the Russian military personnel...
It is possible that these circumstances complemented considerably the list of contradictions (the Customs Union and the integration or merger of Naftohaz of Ukraine by Gazprom) between the Ukrainian and Russian governments and drove the talks into a corner providing the pretext for the next gas war between the two countries.
The new crisis in the Ukrainian-Russian relations has troubled the world. Director of the East European Gas Analysis consulting agency Mikhail Korchemkin (the US) writes in his Live Journal: “The new conflict was started deliberately [by Russia. – Author] in order to eliminate the doubts about the construction of the new gas pipelines [not passing through Ukraine – Author].” Really, the Ukrainian government is squeezed between Europe and Russia protecting Tymoshenko. Under such conditions, Europe, which was given a rise to doubts about Ukraine, is tempted to support Russian gas streams.
The gas politics cause the escalating anxiety among the domestic energy experts. “I feel that [yet I cannot prove my feeling with facts. – Author] that Naftohaz, the Ukrainian Fuel-Energy Ministry and Gazprom have already developed certain models how to correct the contracts,” Volodymyr Zemliansky, independent expert, told The Day. “It means that they have nearly come up with a compromise. However, since the political situation is hopeless, everything depends on the politicians now. For everything is happening at the presidential level, the economy becomes secondary. The silence after the negotiations means only one thing: they have not found a starting point for a political decision.”
President of New Energy Alliance Volodymyr Borovyk mentioned in his interview to The Day: “The talks in Sochi should be considered futile, not to say disastrous though the Ukrainian president went there with a hope or even certitude in coming up with a compromise. He declared this before the talks. Later he told to the close journalists that the compromise was possible based on the out-of-court agreements. This never happened. The talks have demonstrated that Russia, as usual, during the whole period of the Ukrainian independence wants to get not just a lot, it wants to get everything. It does not accept Yanukovych’s formula for the Ukrainian participation in the Customs Union, which implies only the full-fledged membership. And even if Ukraine enters the Customs Union, Gazprom will merge with the National Stock Company Naftohaz of Ukraine and not integrate as Russia says. So today, there is no way out of this situation yet it can be found in other aspects. Let the arbitration tribunal settle our dispute. We should hire a strong law firm that will uphold the interests of Ukraine since there are the precedents for this in the world... Gazprom is in a complicated situation today since Europe has decreased its gas consumption. According to some predictions, it will lose its markets due to the renewable energy programs’ implementation. The European consumers will get discounts because they are more persistent in seeking the fair prices as compared to Ukraine. It is possible that Gazprom will try to compensate its losses on the Ukrainian market, which is too expensive for the friendly relations. But where is it, this friendship?”
