Victors are not judged. Under the accords reached between the heads of the Ukrainian and Russian governments, Gazprom has agreed not to mete out any penalties to Ukraine for its failure to accept the contracted amount of gas from Russia. The company has signed a supplement to the contract that will take effect on January 19. It provides for lowering gas supplies to Ukraine in 2010, from 41.6 to 33.75 billion cubic meters. After receiving this encouraging signal Ukrainian public opinion may well shift in favor of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, provided certain nuances of her meeting with the Russian counterpart in Yalta are forgiven.
Naftohaz Ukrainy’s CEO Oleh Dubyna is optimistic and rules out any conflicts like what happened in January 2009: “This year we will celebrate the New Year at home. We now have positive relations (with the Russian side), and all settlements are being timely made; today we know how we will live next year. Everything will be fine.” He adds that Ukraine has over 29 billion cubic meters of natural gas in its underground storage facilities. This amount is fully paid for and is Ukrainian property. In his own words, Naftohaz Ukrainy has carried out the government’s directive to sign agreements and allocate gas quotas for all heat-supplying companies. “We have one hundred percent gas contracts made with all heat suppliers, so there will be enough gas. We have secured one hundred percent gas supplies in Ukraine,” he assured journalists. At the same time, he complained that municipal heat suppliers are lagging behind with payments for the amounts of gas consumed and that the population and industries are making timely payments, practically in full, but far from all this money finds its way to Naftohaz Ukrainy.
The Russian side, after taking this step as promised, could not refrain from reproach. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev (who now and then plays the bad cop) said that “(gas supply — V.K.) preferences for Ukraine amount to between 75 and 100 billion dollars.” Although he did not specify the period or mention what Russia received in exchange (invariably low transit costs), this statement makes it clear that Ukraine is forever indebted to Russia. To this end the head of Ukrainian state continues to insist on an “exclusively market price-setting formula for Russian gas transit via Ukraine. Viktor Yushchenko believes that this will increase the transit price from 1.7 to 4.5-5.5 USD per 1,000 cubic meters per 100 kilometers of pipeline. This will allow Naftohaz Ukrainy to improve its present complicated financial situation.
Presidential candidate Arsenii Yatseniuk does not expect much from the revised gas contracts, saying that “Russia doesn’t and won’t have the slightest intention of rewriting the contract” and proposes to “actually change the agenda, replacing contract with a joint energy policy.” How will this benefit Ukraine? Yatseniuk believes that this policy will make it possible to “have a different price (for gas supplies), acceptable transit terms and conditions, and an interest in alternative gas supply routes.”
The gas expert Oleksandr Narbut told The Day he was happy about the current situation and noted that a precedent of revising the January 19 gas contracts had just been set: “It turns out that even certain oral agreements made between the prime ministers over the past two years can actually be implemented. There is no cause for worry now… If only Naftohaz Ukrainy didn’t have to honor its current financial commitments for November and December now that this company has so many debtors and lacks funds, with the government having a similar situation with its Treasury bills. Therefore, it is too early to sit back and relax. I think we’d better quit fanfare and concentrate on a quiet analysis of Naftohaz Ukrainy’s financial plan for the next year. Everything points to this company having to pay some 10 billion dollars for Russian gas in 2010 and the question of how to earn this sum remains open because the next year’s transit tariff remains anyone’s guess and whether the sum advanced by Gazprom for 2010 gas transit will be revised according to the new tariff. Nor are the prices for gas supplies to the population are clear.”
Serhii Yermilov, head of the National Agency for Rational Use of Energy Resources (NAER), told The Day that “the situation with gas supplies has been resolved by both sides in a civilized manner; otherwise Ukraine would face more problems. This situation has been settled for this and next year. He believes that what is left is “one issue — timely payments for gas supplies” and that this depends on consumers, local authorities, and of course, the government’s close supervision.”
Yermilov further believes that an opportunity to lower the amount of gas supply per GDP unit — in other words, the amount to be purchased abroad — is explained by the Ukrainian industries having sharply lowered their output in conditions of crisis. He pointed to the importance of energy-preserving and efficiency-enhancing measures, but was unable to provide nationwide statistics because the results will be summed up only toward the end of the year. The NAER expert said progress made in separate, most energy-consuming regions offers every reason for optimism. It has been estimated in Donetsk oblast that new technologies will allow to consume 20 percent less gas by the end of the year as compared to 2008.
