We wrote as recently as last week that August is very suitable for Russia to escalate its aggression against Ukraine. The Kremlin did not take long to appear, launching informational attacks and provocations. First, on August 6, it was reported from Luhansk that an attempt was made on the life of Igor Plotnitsky, leader of bandits in the so-called “LNR.” Who is to blame? Of course, a Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group (RSG), as Plotnitsky himself mumbled in a post-surgery stupor. On the very next day, August 7, Crimea saw the events that immediately brought about a lot of versions. One of them is from the occupiers. What does it say? Yes, a Ukrainian RSG has infiltrated the peninsula.
Then, after a pause, most likely in connection with the visit of Turkey’s President Erdogan and certain agreements, first the FSB and then Russian President Putin himself spoke on August 10 about Ukrainian RSGs which were allegedly going to organize terrorist acts in Crimea in order to destabilize the sociopolitical situation on the peninsula. The Russian security service announced that it “had broken up a spy ring of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence” in Crimea, which left two Russian military servicemen dead. They also say they arrested Yevhen Panov, a Ukrainian born in 1977, who they allege serves at Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and was responsible for organizing terrorist acts.
Putin did not stint on such familiar cliches as “Ukraine has turned to terror,” “It’s an attempt to divert the attention of their own people from a difficult economic situation,” “Russia will not leave as it is,” and “under these circumstances, it is pointless to meet in the Normandy format, all the more so in China.” Putin even held a Russian Security Council meeting on this occasion.
The Ukrainian leadership immediately reacted to the Russian accusations. National Security and Defense Council Secretary Turchynov said that all the FSB’s claims about Ukraine hatching terrorist plots in Crimea were hysterical and deceitful. “This provocative nonsense of the FSB is an element of the hybrid war Russia is waging against this country,” he noted. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense and Security Service have also rejected the Kremlin’s disinformation leak. President Poroshenko commented on this in no uncertain terms: “Russian accusations that Ukraine launched terror attacks in the occupied Crimea are equally cynical and insane as its claims that there are no Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. These fantasies are nothing but a pretext for more military threats against Ukraine.” After consulting with army and police chiefs, the President of Ukraine instructed them “to fully alert all units in the vicinity of the administrative border with the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and along the entire line of contact in the Donbas.”
Whatever Moscow’s further plans may be, the information attack and provocative actions about Crimea clearly show that the Kremlin is applying informational, diplomatic, and military methods to pressure Ukraine and the West again into making concessions. The Russian leadership is also taking advantage of a favorable international situation: the war in Syria, the events in Turkey, Brexit in the UK, the migration crisis in Europe, and the upcoming US presidential elections. Besides, it is summer now, many are on vacation, and the whole world is riveted to the Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Russia has already used August for its aggressive actions more than once – in Chechnya in 1999 and in Georgia in 2008. What can be expected from the Kremlin now, and what can Ukraine say and do in response?
“I THINK THESE WORDS OF PUTIN ARE QUITE ALARMING”
Roland FREUDENSTEIN, Deputy Director, Wilfried Martens Center, Brussels:
“Firstly, I see no logical reason why Ukraine should organize terrorism in Crimea, for this will predictably give Russia grounds ‘to respond.’ So, it is absolutely clear to me and to most people in the West that the incident is a put-up job of FSB pros. This raises a question: what’s next? At worst, Russia will see it as a pretext for attacking the areas to the north of Crimea in order to seize a certain territory or at least to make some ‘punitive forays.’ It may also carry out artillery and air strikes on Ukrainian targets.”
“THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM IS STILL IN THE NORMANDY FORMAT”
Maksym ROZUMNY, Director, Russian Federation Problems Research Center:
“In my view, the root of the problem is still in the ‘Normandy format,’ for Ukraine suggests meeting in a very unfavorable, to Russia, situation – at the G20 forum in China. For Putin, it is not a very pleasant conversation because, going to visit China, he sets other priorities. This might impair the situation, when he is a ‘peacemaker’ in Syria, has mended fences with Erdogan, and proposes far-reaching plans of Eurasian cooperation. Now the question of aggression against Ukraine and the ‘Normandy format,’ in which Russia fails to meet its commitments, are a challenge of sorts, a problem which he could try to solve in this way. At the same time, Putin may be in fact fed up with the ‘Normandy format,’ from which he is trying to withdraw because he feels uncomfortable among his partners – Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko – and no longer wants to have to conduct pointless and futile talks. All the more so that Hollande and Merkel are going to contest elections and Poroshenko is losing political support, which may lead to a certain crisis and reshuffle of power in Ukraine.
“The situation in Crimea is more and more unfavorable to the Kremlin – the peninsula remains chronically underfunded, and its status in the Russian frame of references is changing for the worse. An alternative to this is militarization, the situation of a ‘besieged fortress,’ and exhortations to Crimeans that they should be grateful because they ‘have no war.’
“On our part, the president and the foreign ministry have made statement, and not only our diplomats, but also our allies have drawn the attention of the world community to this problem. It is a right reaction, and we must expose the Russian aggressor’s true face and ways of behaving on the international arena.
“Now about the reaction of our Western partners to the situation: as Russia is so far waging an informational campaign only, the West is reacting, accordingly, in term of information. Some diplomats and politicians have made statements, which is sufficient at the current stage. When the Kremlin’s actions become clearer – whether it is about a tougher occupational regime in Crimea, Moscow’s new attitude to ‘Minsk’ on the diplomatic arena, etc, – I hope our partners will show a more consistent and specific reaction.
“Aggravation of the situation caused by the Russian and militant forces is of a cyclic nature and, in all likelihood, it will traditionally reach its peak on the eve of Independence Day.”
“RUSSIA IS GAINING TRUMP CARDS TO EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE ON OUR LEADERSHIP AND WESTERN LEADERS”
Serhii HALUSHKO, Colonel, Deputy Chief, Information Technologies Department, Ministry of Defense, Ukraine:
“Suppose Russia opens hostilities from the Donbas and Crimea. But what then? The answer to this question will be a ‘cold shower’ for the aggressor because, as a result, they may get a number of unacceptable tasks, problems, and uncertainties. I think that, in spite of Putin’s voluntarism, their brains work, and common sense must foresee these problems.
“It’s a proven fact that the Russians have several scenarios of an open and large-scale attack on Ukraine. The question is when they can implement them, for this requires favorable condition inside Ukraine, such as total destabilization of the domestic political situation, mass-scale protests against the current government, disorder and confusion in the uniformed services, etc. Once this set of options exists, at least hypothetically, one can begin to take some actions against Ukraine, but this is not on the agenda now.
“An uneasy conscience betrays itself – Putin blabbed out that the ‘Normandy format’ is ‘pointless’ under these circumstances. It is to his benefit to foil the Minsk negotiations which are more and more reaching a deadlock. Ukraine is meeting its share of commitments, while demands to the Russian side are being put off or reworded under any pretext, or some new conditions are being put forward, which looks like beating the air. For this reason, it is easier to blame the Ukrainian side for the failure of talks – Russia is gaining trump cards and arguments to exert further pressure on our leadership and Western leaders involved in the conflict settlement.
“Besides, there is a political lull in Russia before the upcoming elections, while the crowd is demanding ‘bread and circuses.’ So, the Kremlin is keeping the Russians in vigor and shows what the Russian leadership is doing. We are also on the eve of the 25th anniversary of Ukraine’s independence – it is a symbolic holiday on which the outside world will focus its attention. There will be a military parade. So Russia will try to find as many pretexts and reasons as possible to thwart celebrations – quite in the style of the Russian leadership.
“As for the likelihood of aggression precisely in August, I’d like to wish Russian generals to read Russian military history more attentively. There were many blitzkriegs in military history, but how many of them ended successfully?
“In theory, a ‘lightning war’ is possible, but is the Russian army strong enough to wage blitzkriegs? Does it have enough pinpoint weapons and long-rage firepower systems? They may have an advantage in conventional weapons, but do Russian citizens support this and are the military eager to do so? What will play its role is not only military, but also political and human factors associated with the particularities of mentality and the way the Russian leadership makes decisions.
“It is an open secret that Ukraine is now holding a series of national and international military exercises. It is quite obvious who is viewed as a hypothetical enemy and which variant of his actions is being foreseen. Therefore, our military are actively bracing for these scenarios in headquarters and in the field.
“As for the FSB-captured Yevhen Panov, I must say that Russian security services have often been capturing Ukrainians on their territory or on that of Ukraine, leveling charges against them, and attaching to them the label of a ‘special services’ agent,’ a ‘saboteur,’ or a ‘terrorist.’ It is quite in the spirit of Russian ‘law-enforcement system’ traditions.
“Even if Panov was arrested on the territory of Crimea, we must note that he has already been in fact demobilized and is free to cross the state and administrative borders of Ukraine. This person used to serve in a mechanized infantry battalion (it is a proven fact) and cannot therefore be a career military intelligence officer. Specific acts of sabotage on the enemy-controlled territory can only be carried out by ‘armchair experts’ and a very limited number of professionals who have the experience of serving in commando, airmobile, field reconnaissance, and special-purpose units. So it is totally wrong to say that a mechanized infantry serviceman is a saboteur and a terrorist.
“He might as well have been going to Crimea for some personal reasons, as some Ukrainian citizens do. For this reason, the occupiers can capture any Ukrainian in Crimea and level any charges against him or her – it is not a problem for the aggressor to assign blame to somebody.”
