The parliamentary elections in Turkey which took place on Sunday brought several surprises for international observers as well, and for the pro-presidential ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). First, although this conservative Islamic force won in these elections, it lost absolute majority in parliament. With 99.9 percent of ballots counted, the party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won 41 percent of votes. So, it will have 258 out of 550 seats in parliament, although it had expected to win 330 seats.
Another surprise was the fact that the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP), which broke the 10 percent electoral threshold, won 13 percent and 79 seats. The second place in the elections was taken by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which scored 25 percent of votes. It is followed by the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which earned 16.5 percent. These parties will have 132 and 81 seats in the parliament, respectively. The elections’ turnout was 86 percent. The reason is that the elections in Turkey are mandatory.
According to the observers, such results of the elections attest to the fact that the voters didn’t support the intentions of the ruling party to change the constitution of the country. Although the surname of the president of the country Recep Tayyip Erdogan was not in the ballots, the elections were perceived by many people as a referendum on whether to give him broader authority or not. For this the AKP needed constitutional parliamentary majority of 60 percent or 330 seats.
REUTERS photo
The Day asked experts to comment on the results of the elections in Turkey and how it may influence the foreign policy of Ankara.
Amanda PAUL, political expert, program director of the European Policy Center, Brussels:
“The result [of elections] has dramatically shaken-up the status quo in Turkey. This result not only ends Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dream of creating an executive presidency, it has also demonstrated that Turkey is still a democracy, where elections can change governments despite the significant back-pedaling in terms of democracy over the past few years.
“The HDP’s success is particularly significant and opens a new chapter in Turkey’s history for the Kurds.
“The AKP’s loss of votes is a consequence of the AKP’s increasingly authoritarian governing style, the corruption allegations against senior members of the party, and the crackdown on the freedom of media and individual rights and its isolationist foreign policy. This change in mentality began with the Gezi Park protests two years ago and has become contagious among the youth and the middle class, breaking old stereotypes related to animosity between Turks and Kurds, intolerance to certain ethnic, religious or LGBTI groups, et al. Thus the majority of Turkish society has again chosen the European path, with its democratic values and principles, rather than the illusionary neo-Ottoman politics of AKP.
“However, it will probably prove very difficult to form a coalition government because of the different ideologies of the parties, hence new elections are also possible.”
Ihor SEMYVOLOS, Executive Director of the Center for Middle East Studies, Kyiv:
“This means that a considerable part of society, which for some or other reasons was unsatisfied with Erdogan, finally got a chance to change the political process. But, as for me, the problem is that nationalists are not able to come to agreement with one another in order to carry out new policy. So, most likely, Erdogan will be able to create a new coalition.
“Apparently, Erdogan’s policy does not meet the interests of the majority of the population, mostly the middle class, for which many reforms have been conducted and to whose interests he always makes references.
“Clearly, the results that have been achieved by the opposition are not enough to change Erdogan’s policy. Most likely, this elections result is a signal for Erdogan to change some vector of his policy, including his foreign policy.
“It should be noted that many Turks did not understand Erdogan’s policy concerning Crimea and Crimean Tatars. Apparently, Turkey’s policy concerning Russia must become more clear-cut, it must have more solidarity with the Turkish people, Turkic people, and be better coordinated with the European Union and NATO. In other words, Erdogan is expected to have a more critical policy concerning Russia.
“Anyway, Turkey’s home policy and foreign policy will change. Another thing is that the course towards Islamization will slow down, and the foreign policy regarding Russia will apparently be more clear-cut. These are two crucial moments that may arise and erase the Erdogan regime.”
