The American Wilson Center, named after the nation’s 28th president Woodrow Wilson, is the key non-partisan policy forum for tackling global issues through independent research and open dialog to inform political community about actionable ideas. It was after that president, known as a historian, political scientist, and the Nobel Peace Prize winner of 1919, that one of the US foreign policy concepts was named. According to the Wilsonian philosophy, the US should maintain political leadership and conduct economic expansion in Europe, based on a high level of economic development. These days, executive vice president of the Wilson Center Andrew Selee visited Kyiv. In an exclusive interview with The Day, he revealed his opinions on what was to be expected from Barack Obama both in the Syrian conflict and in case of the possible escalation of the situation in the Donbas, how the next US president would differ from the current occupant of the White House, and how think tanks ought to act to influence policymaking.
OBAMA IS STILL SCEPTICAL ABOUT RELATIONS WITH PUTIN
“President Barack Obama is a part of the Wilsonian legacy. Obama believes in international institutions, he is not an isolationist, he does believe in engaging abroad, but he is skeptical about what American hard power can do.
“Obama was elected as a reaction against George Bush, who was very interventionist, and so President Obama’s mandate was to keep the United States out of war. He has been very reluctant to engage in what could become military conflicts. I don’t think there will be a rapprochement with Russia or an attempt to make a strong alliance in Syria with Russia.
“There may be some greater coordination in Syria than has existed, but I don’t think you are going to see them withdrawing from the sanctions regime or softening the sanctions regime. Obama, in that sense, recognizes that there is a real long-term challenge of Russian aggression in Ukraine, and that it is a threat for a larger region. I think he will be firm on that, but at the same time he is not naturally disposed to entering into conflicts that could escalate. He prefers the deals with other forms of power, like sanctions, rather than military.”
“WHOEVER IS ELECTED NEXT WILL FEEL MORE FREE TO TAKE A TOUGHER STAND ON ISSUES”
“I expect whoever is elected next – whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican – will follow a more traditional US foreign policy that includes more use of hard power. I don’t think you are going to see the return to the President Bush period, where there was a great willingness to go with military force. But it has been a long time since the Iraq War, and the further we get away, the easier it is for the American president to not live in the shadow of the Iraq War.”
ON THE PHENOMENON OF DONALD TRUMP AND CHANCES OF MARCO RUBIO
“Thirty percent of Republicans support Donald Trump. So, we are really talking about 10 percent of the American population. I think Trump comes across as being honest. At the time when politicians are very careful about what they say, he says whatever he thinks. Whether that is real honesty or not, I am not sure. He has had different positions throughout his life, so I’m not sure it’s honesty in the way I would qualify honesty, but I think for certain voters he comes across as being not scripted, he’s not just reading a speech.
“The second thing is, we are living in a time when there’s a slow growth in the US economy, there’s a lot of uncertainty. This is the first time in modern American history that people aren’t sure that their children will be better off than they are. And I think Trump plays to a certain part of the American electorate that is upset with government and think that we need someone who’s got to come in and fix things. I’m not sure he can win the majority in the United States, given how many groups he has alienated, how many groups he has offended.
“I think Marco Rubio is a very talented upstander. He is a very talented politician. He has done very well in debates, he is incredibly smart. I think he is much more conservative than Jeb Bush or certainly Hillary Clinton. But he also is pragmatic. Much like Clinton, actually, in that sense, or Jeb Bush, who put practical decision-making ahead of ideology.”
“THERE IS NOT A LEADER ON THE SCENE RIGHT NOW WHO COULD BE CALLED A VISIONARY”
“I don’t know if we have a vision right now. I think we have good negotiation, we have people like Angela Merkel and Barack Obama, who have been excellent negotiators and used restraint and compassion in how they approach policy, and they have saved the world from a complete economic meltdown.
“But there probably is not a leader on the scene right now who could be called a visionary, at least in Europe and the United States. They are much more comfortable reacting, pragmatically, to specific situations than thinking what’s the broad vision going forward.”
“THE IDEOLOGY OF THE RUSSIAN WORLD IS A THREAT TO INTERNATIONAL ORDER”
“It’s a different ideology, but clearly it’s a threat to international order. You have seen a fairly strong sanctions regime. I think it’s what both Merkel and Obama are comfortable with, and they will continue to put pressure on. France and Italy have clearly been sending signals that they would like to see a different approach to Russia, but I don’t see any appetite in Washington for a change in policy. I don’t think the trust for the Putin government is there. I don’t think they feel that they would get anything valuable by closer collaboration with the Russian government in Syria, and they would lose a great deal in Ukraine and in the broader region. It’s not just Ukraine, it’s Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Georgia, it’s the region as a whole. I don’t think that Obama and his team look at all this. And I think the same is quite true about Germans: when they look at the situation, they don’t believe they would get a real coalition in Syria, and they know they will make a lot of countries vulnerable to Russian aggression.”
“IT WOULD BE VERY WISE TO THINK OF CREATIVE WAYS OF BRINGING THE U.S. AND UKRAINE TOGETHER”
“History repeats itself frequently in Ukraine. It has frequently been a battlefield for other countries and other ambitions. Russia in many ways is playing out its frustration at not being taken seriously as a superpower, and its domestic concerns in Ukraine.
“The Marshall Plan for education in Ukraine is going to be presented at the Wilson Center. One of the features that’s lacking in the relationship, is the US and Europe showing what is the benefit to Ukraine being fully part of Europe, part of the West. And this, for me, is a pending challenge. Now, obviously, we are to try when budgets are very tight in the United States and Europe (their economies are not good), it’s unlikely that it will be a real Marshall Plan, but it would be very wise, of course, to think of things that would be creative ways of bringing our countries together.”
ON SIMPLE LESSONS FOR THINK TANKS
“There are a few things that I’ll talk about. One is having clear goals and what you can accomplish – not just what you want to accomplish; that’s the usual learning I get from interviewing think tanks around the world.
“Another is knowing clearly who your audiences are. And I get a sense that in Ukraine there is a shift in think tanks, a very positive one, towards thinking not just of government as the audience for think tanks, for analytical centers, but also thinking of the larger public. How do you shape public narratives, how do you shape public ideas in a way that eventually shapes policy? Historically, we had to learn that lesson in the United States: we served to focus on government and then learned that we really needed to actually shape the way people understand things, the politicians would follow.
“And the third thing is simply how you get your voice heard, how you use human capital to actually create knowledge and get your voice heard. And there are some very creative ways, even for smaller organizations, to do very high-power research and dialog by using people like journalists, academics, independent writers who are available, to build a network and get ideas out. It’s how you think creatively, how you put people together.”
