Six-month-old Sergei Avetisyan died in a hospital in Gyumri, Armenia’s second largest city, on Monday. The baby was the sole survivor of a family killed by gunfire, but not for long. Russia’s and Armenia’s best physicians fought for his life but failed. In a way the baby’s death was symbolic, marking the last phase of former Russia-Armenia relationships.
The horrendous murder of the Avetisyans was not the first one involving personnel of Russian Military Base 102. The others had come to pass without much public outcry, so the base commander and his Moscow superiors must have expected this one to blow over likewise. In this case, however, the outraged residents of Gyumri took to the streets, which took even the bureaucrats in charge of the federal channels by surprise, and it was some time before they were instructed from upstairs how to portray the event. No one could have expected such public outcry, considering that a large part of the able-bodied population of Gyumri were employees of the military base and there were practically no other employment opportunities in the city. Therefore, such a reaction was hardly likely, yet that’s exactly what happened.
Armenia, of all Russia’s allies, appeared the most loyal one, its government willingly taking orders from Moscow. Without a common border with Russia, being semi-isolated and on the verge of all-out war with Azerbaijan, Armenia and its political leadership had little room for maneuver. Historically, many in Armenia tended to regard Russia as their protector and guarantor.
Interestingly, there are twice as many Armenians living abroad than in their homeland. The Armenian diaspora carries a lot of economic, financial, and political clout. Most Armenians abroad (save for those in Russia) are Western-minded and often have a dim view of Russia. This is especially true of the Armenian diasporas in US and France that are especially influential, considering that there are many wealthy people there. A tangible part of Armenia’s budget comes from money transfers and contributions from the diaspora.
Naturally, the Armenian establishment is de facto divided into the pro-Russia and pro-Western parts, with Nagorno-Karabakh being the only issue where they see eye to eye (even though they have different views on the way out of this crisis).
Pro-Western Armenians at home would wish to weaken the strength of relations with Russia, in which the position of Yerevan is that of a satellite without any voting rights. They are encouraged by the sharp change of course on the association with the EU and membership of the Eurasian Union.
The pro-Russian forces stress the national security of Armenia which is actually surrounded. They are making every effort to convince Armenian society that the country will be lost without Russia’s protectorate – that there will be no chance to defend Nagorno-Karabakh anyway. Accordingly, it is necessary to keep following Russia’s course in the near future, and then figure out what to do next.
Under the circumstances those upstairs in Moscow saw no reason for worry. They told themselves that Armenia had no other way to go. Then the Gyumri incident blew in their face and laid bare a totally different aspect of the heretofore cozy Moscow-Yerevan relationships.
To think that the murder of an Armenian family by a Russian deserter was what triggered off the crisis would be a mistake. Everything is much more complicated as the bilateral relations had long been on a downward curve, but real problem started after the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Russia’s rapprochement with Azerbaijan began last spring as annexation trends in the Kremlin’s politics became clearly apparent and tangible right after the events in Crimea. This process was taking place largely parallel to and even simultaneously with the bettering of Moscow-Ankara relationships. This was especially important for Moscow as it wanted to maintain its influence in the Middle East. However, of no less importance was Turkey’s loyal attitude toward the status of Crimean Tatars. Due to historical reasons and in terms of mentality, Ankara regarded itself as their protector, and problems to that end were the last thing Moscow wanted.
Moscow’s sale to Baku of heavy armaments worth billions of dollars is a sign of a degree of rapprochement, too. Needless to say, Yerevan wasn’t happy about the deal, but there was nothing the pro-Russian Armenian government could do but swallow the bitter pill – and even pretend that nothing out of the ordinary had happened.
Most CIS leaders are in a state of panic envisioning their Maidan. Strange as it may seem, Armenia is likely to be the first to have it. The domestic divergences are too strong and the split within the national elite is too far gone.
Events in Gyumri are a clear indication that Armenian society is no longer placing hopes in Russia as the sole guarantor of Armenia’s security and territorial integrity. For the moment the public outcry is aimed at the Russian authorities and Armenian ranking officials. But that’s for the time being. Experience shows that such protests against specific problems quickly embrace general issues. As it is, the Armenian political leadership is depressed and confused. They can’t and won’t raise their voice at Moscow because they are really scared. On the other hand, there is no reason to expect the situation to just blow over.
There is definitely some change of political moods within Armenian society. An increasing number of active citizens feel dissatisfied with the current situation, so it is safe to assume that an Armenian Maidan is a matter of time. Another incident like that in Gyumri and President Serzh Sargsyan will stop playing chess.
Even a slight dissociation between Armenia and Russia would have serious geopolitical consequences for both the South and North Caucasus. Moscow would simply have nothing to replace Yerevan with. Moscow’s current rapprochement with Baku is short-lived and opportunistic. In the long run, after the end of the Ukrainian crisis, Moscow-coveted multipolarity in the Azov-Black Sea region will acquire visible features. It is by no means a given that the countries of that region will seek Russia’s protection. On the contrary, the centrifugal forces, including in the Eurasian Union, will gain momentum. Armenia is Russia’s last bastion in the South Caucasus. If, as a result of military defeats, sanctions, drop in energy prices, and other problems, Russia weakens and eventually withdraws from Ukraine, the current geopolitical structure in the South Caucasus will collapse. This will be followed by a domino effect, all the way from the North Caucasus to Central Asia. If Armenia walks out of the Russian zone of influence, the whole CIS space will turn into a few lines in a history textbook, period.
There is yet another aspect. The war in the Donbas is tapping heavily into all of Russia’s resources. Their concentration in the Ukrainian direction has left other no less important peripheral components on the Russian border in a state best described as no-man’s land. This is already taking its toll. That was why the Donbas separatists were ordered to step up hostilities and received supplies and materiel. Meanwhile the Kremlin is looking for a way out of an impasse. Hence the result, all the way from Donetsk Airport to Gyumri.
One shouldn’t expect a U-turn in Armenian politics overnight, perhaps during the next elections. The geopolitical situation at the nodal point of the instability arc depends on the outcome of the Donbas armed conflict and anti-Russian moods in Armenia. Looks like crucial changes will take place before long.
ARMENIAN SOCIETY OUTRAGED BY HEINOUS CRIME
Gagik HAMBARYAN, political scientist, Gyumri:
“Russian troops have been deployed in Armenia since 1991 when this country proclaimed national independence. There have been no withdrawals. Eventually, treaties were signed whereby these troops were to stay in Armenia almost until 2050. We all know that a military base is a living organism, that crimes and other wrongdoings can take place there. Until now the population of Gyumri treated this with understanding. This one is not the first crime perpetrated by Russian servicemen. In 1999, three drunk Russian soldiers opened fire in the city center, at the market, killing two and seriously injuring seven individuals. Later, Russian servicemen caused tragic traffic accidents, running cars over civilians. In 2013, two children died in a village near Gyumri because of the Russian military’s [criminal] negligence; the children were blown up by a land mine the Russians had left after a military exercise. Everybody knew that the guilty servicemen were transferred to Russia to be meted out punishment, but no one knew where they were court-martialed and what kind of punishment they suffered.
“This crime is truly hair-raising. First, a family of seven was murdered… Second, the residents of Gyumri and all of Armenia were shocked to learn that an 18-year-old soldier raised his hand against a 2-year-old girl and a 6-month-old child. All we demand is that [the guilty party] Permyakov stand trial in Armenia, under our Criminal Code, on charges of murder in the first degree. That’s the main point. Also, I must point out that anti-Russian moods have grown stronger in Armenia because of the Russian leadership’s clumsy behavior and Russia’s shortsighted foreign policy.”
ARMENIAN SOCIETY DEMANDS PUNISHMENT UNDER ARMENIAN LAW
“Moscow is to blame in the first place because of its idee fixe: all criminal proceedings must be under their control. And this considering that Russian soldier Permyakov committed this heinous cold-blooded crime on Armenian territory. Moscow is allegedly concerned that a trial over Permyakov in Armenia would be politicized. I must say that the Russian side is at fault because it does not want to make any concessions. Armenian society demands only that he be meted out punishment under Armenian law because he committed his crime on Armenian territory. The Russian side insists that he is a Russian national, so he must stand trial under Russian legislation. This assumption is beneath criticism. Dozens of Armenian nationals commit crimes in Russia, yet the Armenian leadership has never demanded extradition and trial under Armenian legislation. For example, in 2013, Grachya Arutyunyan caused a road accident in a Moscow suburb, killing people. Or take the Armenians who committed a crime in Arzamas. Were they tried and convicted in Armenia? They have been convicted or are being tried in the Russian Federation, on charges pressed under Russian legislation. Moscow leadership should realize that Armenian society is keenly aware of all this and that the people of Gyumri will not tolerate any unlawful activities of the Russian military in their city. As for anti-Russian moods, I must point out that, despite all this, the issue of withdrawing the Russian military base from Armenia is not on the agenda. It has never been. Moscow should be more flexible and make every effort to resolve the situation. Armenia is its sole ally on whose territory a Russian military base is deployed.
“As for possible consequences of this heinous crime committed by a Russian soldier against an Armenian family, there is a degree of cooling of relations between Russia and Armenia. I don’t think, however, that there will be any drastic changes in these relations because of the infanticide Permyakov; such abominable characters do not determine the relations between our peoples. We have always had friendly relations and I hope we will continue to have them. But to repeat myself, it is important for the population of Armenia and the people of Gyumri that Permyakov stand trial in Armenia, under Armenian legislation.
“The Prosecutor General of Armenia forwarded a letter to his Russian counterpart Yuri Chaika requesting that Permyakov be prosecuted in Armenia, otherwise this will eventually damage Armenia-Russia relations. This crime cannot be forgiven. No one is going to lynch Permyakov in Armenia, but everyone wants him prosecuted under Armenian law and meted out punishment for murder in the first degree.
“This crime was perpetrated by a monster in human form. In Gyumri, in Armenia, for any normal human being, raising one’s hand against a 2-year-old girl, a 6-month child, let alone killing a child, is beyond comprehension. This crime has outraged all of Armenian society.”
