The Queen has signed the Article 50 Bill, clearing the way for Theresa May to formally start talks about leaving the European Union. Now, the Prime Minister can officially inform Brussels that the UK is leaving the EU and start the two-year process of British-European “divorce.”
THE WHOLE PROCESS OF BREXIT
When British people voted for leaving the European Union, because they wanted more economical and political independence of their country from Brussels, they just activated the mechanism of a long Brexit process.
First of all, Parliament members voted on two changes to the Article 50 Bill before deciding whether to approve the legislation as a whole.
On March 13, the Brexit Bill passed through Parliament without amendments they wanted to include into the bill.
On March 16, the Queen has given her formal approval, making Theresa May free to start Brexit.
Past year, Ms. May promised to activate Article 50 by the end of March 2017.
The Prime Minister said that she would come to the House of Commons (where she has the majority) and announce it officially.
March 31 – is the last day for Teresa May to start talks under a timetable she proposed at the Conservative Party conference past year.
In April 2017 all European leaders will meet for the first common Brexit discussions. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already confirmed her readiness for such meeting.
“NO DEAL IS BETTER THAN A BAD DEAL”
The biggest problem in the British-European “divorce” is economic instability for Britain.
All EU members must make their contribution to the union’s shared budget each year. The annual sum for the UK has been 7-14 billion euros (7.5-15 billion dollars).
After the Brexit referendum, EU officials said that the UK should pay as much as 60 billion euros according to the potential block of a “divorce bill.”
The UK, meanwhile, says that the EU owes it 10 billion euros.
Teresa May said that leaving the European Union Britain will leave the single market as well and within two years of negotiations her government will create a new trade agreement with the EU, as the country’s biggest trading partner. The EU officials think it is unrealistic.
Thus, French Finance Minister called such plans an improvisation: “We are in a situation of improvisation. All of this shows how helpless the British government is in the face of a situation that some of them didn’t want.”
The Prime Minister also pointed out that her aim would be the “greatest possible access” to the EU markets through a comprehensive free trade agreement and Britain would continue to pay into the EU budget for “specific EU programs” of its choosing. Critics say it could take many years to achieve.
At the same time, Teresa May has declared her readiness to walk away from Brexit negotiations without agreement package, insisting that “no deal is better than a bad deal.”
But if there would be no deal at all, a rise of tariffs and other trade barriers could make it much more costly for British firms to trade with the EU creating a hole in the United Kingdom economy.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said it would be normal to leave the EU on World Trade Organization terms.
On the other hand, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis said: “Leaving under WTO rules would mean tariffs of 30-40 percent on agricultural exports and 10 percent on cars, the loss of EHIC health insurance cards for travelers and passporting rights for financial sector firms, as well as departure from the EU-US Open Skies arrangements for air transport.”
SCOTLAND’S SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM
But the economic issue is not the only one problem for Britain. There is a strong risk of another referendum on Scotland’s independence.
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that a so called “hard Brexit” can cause to economical catastrophe for the UK what makes a second referendum on Scottish independence more possible. Her statement seems totally logical, taking into account the fact that in the Brexit referendum 62 percent of Scottish voters decided to remain part of the EU.
Sturgeon needs the British parliament’s approval to hold a second independence referendum. But the Prime Minister has clearly expressed her mind against another referendum.
Nevertheless, such talks about Scottish independence can complicate Teresa May’s negotiations with Brussels.
THE RIGHTS OF EU NATIONALS IN THE UK
The group of three million people created a statement where they demand from Theresa May to guarantee the rights of the EU nationals in the UK after Brexit. They want the rights of European workers in Britain to be protected before Article 50 is activated.
In their turn, British officials have quickly reacted to this statement. A spokesman for the Department for Exiting the EU said: “We have been clear that we want to protect the status of EU nationals already living in the UK and the only circumstances in which that wouldn’t be possible is if British citizens’ rights in European member states were not protected in return.”
CAN THE BREXIT STILL BE STOPPED?
The Prime Minister promised Parliament a vote on the final deal that the government creates with the EU.
But the most interesting is that now she may not keep her promise because the Brexit bill has been passed without an amendment that requires a “meaningful vote” about Brexit issue. It is not clear what power the parliament actually has in influence on the results of Brexit negotiations.
Before the Parliament passed the Brexit bill, the House of Lords insisted on the two amendments in the bill. One to ensure that the EU citizens living in the UK would maintain their rights, and another to give parliament a “meaningful vote” on the final terms of exit which Prime Minister’s government agrees with the EU.
The House of Commons, where Teresa May’s Conservative Party has a majority, rejected those amendments and asked the House of Lords to reconsider them. And the unelected upper house (the House of Lords) decided to do as their elected counterparts (the House of Commons) wanted. As a result, the Brexit bill has been passed without these amendments.
Still, the Parliament remains supreme. If Article 50 is going to be ineffective and the parliament is able to secure a majority against the Prime Minister, any MP can introduce a new bill and force Teresa May to stop the Brexit process.
Even if today such turn of events seems totally unrealistic, the past clearly tells us that anything can happen.
Viktoria Kriukova is a student at the Institute of Journalism, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
