It is known that Yanukovych went to Sochi not only to support Ukrainian athletes. There was a meeting with Putin as well. The conversation took place behind the closed doors, and there was no public statement released afterward. The Kremlin press service informed there was one meeting between Yanukovych and Putin, but as some media say, it is possible that the presidents have met multiple times. It remains a secret what they agreed upon. No statements or information leaks to mass media happened after the meeting.
♦ Experts are lost in guesses. Instead, politicians on both sides of the barricades offer their versions of arrangements between the two presidents. The Party of Regions (MP Chechetov in particular) is convinced that Yanukovych and Putin talked about current issues, which removed a lot of matters from the agenda, and certainly must “provide a stimulus for further intensification of cooperation with Russia.” But they admit off the record that Putin’s main demand for the next tranche to take place is the appointment of the new Cabinet of Ministers.
♦ “Not the matter of changing the Constitution, but the appointment of the government will be the main topic of the next plenary week,” the Party of Regions MP Mykhailo Chechetov tells The Day. “The president must propose a candidate for the prime minister’s post. Consultations on the matter are still in process. I think that this candidate will represent the majority and about 250 MPs will vote for him.” “It will be a good signal for the economic life of the country, which came to a halt in anticipation of the new government, it will finally liven up,” Chechetov says.
♦ However, on the eve of the president’s departure, the opposition stated the main goal of Yanukovych’s visit to Sochi was coordination of the new prime minister’s candidacy with the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. Head of the Presidential Administration Andrii Kliuiev, acting Prime Minister Serhii Arbuzov, acting vice prime ministers Oleksandr Vilkul and Yurii Boiko, MP Petro Poroshenko, Party of Regions MPs Serhii Tihipko and Anatolii Kinakh were named among the possible candidates. The oppositionists say their assumptions might still be true, and that according to their sources, Yanukovych failed to reach the expected agreement with Putin.
♦ “If Yanukovych arrived with necessary information, an extraordinary parliamentary session would have surely been convened, and we would have already had the majority vote for the prime minister’s candidacy, proposed by the Family,” says Batkivshchyna MP Yurii Stets. “Everything happened not the way Yanukovych planned.” “Yanukovych does not make any decisions without Putin’s command. Yanukovych now is Putin’s spokesperson, just as the opposition is speaking for Maidan,” the MP sums up.
The same applies to the situation in the parliament. Recently, Batkivshchyna MP Andrii Shevchenko stated that “Tihipko’s group” allegedly appeared within the Party of Regions, which is “ready to oppose Yanukovych.” “There is a possibility of MPs who wish to express their standpoint leaving the Party of Regions,” Stets confirms. “This is not the easiest process, but a new majority can form soon. It will take place not just for one voting. People formalize in order to leave the Party of Regions faction and act independently.”
♦ “It is Batkivshchyna that is falling apart now, but not the Party of Regions,” Chechetov objects. A lot of MPs want to leave the faction, and Yatseniuk’s positions weakened significantly. Batkivshchyna wants to make it look as if the Party of Regions is having difficulties, but they will fail. We are a united team. There have been no movements, and there will not be any,” Chechetov says.
♦ As The Day’s sources in the Party of Regions inform, it is possible that an extraordinary session of the Verkhovna Rada is convened this Thursday. The Party of Regions MPs were warned they should stay close to Kyiv, and everyone received a text notifying they should come to the Verkhovna Rada on Thursday if it becomes necessary. The indicated reason is voting for the candidacy for the prime minister’s post.
No specific names are announced to MPs. But The Day’s sources in the Party of Regions assume that Poroshenko might be the candidate.
Will Yanukovych and the opposition agree to this (Poroshenko is a potential opponent at the presidential election for Klitschko, Yatseniuk, and Tiahnybok, considering that his rating grew considerably during the past few months)? We will be able to find out soon.
VOICE FROM Facebook
Oleksa HAIVORONSKY:
“What a straightforward and open text (http://gordonua.com/news/politics/Illarionov-V-techenie-nedeli-Rossiya-n...). And the main point, the plan presented in it is absolutely logical and expected for those who made right conclusions back during the fall and consider disturbances in Kyiv (including ‘maidan,’ deliberately provoked by the Kremlin agents) to be slow and steady steps of Moscow in removing Yanukovych and taking control over Ukraine. ‘European integrators’ and those who sympathize with them are not a goal, they are mere collateral casualties. The main game in this hunt is Viktor Yanukovych. One can even feel some sort of humanitarian compassion towards him in the given situation.”
COMMENTARY
“RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP IS NOT INTERESTED IN ANY STABLE GOVERNMENT IN UKRAINE”
Semen NOVOPRUDSKY, independent journalist, Moscow:
“The meeting between Yanukovych and Putin did not draw a wide reaction in Russia. Network media assess it as of “zero effectiveness” for Yanukovych (in the best case), or perhaps, even as a negative one. Attention is paid not to the meeting itself, which was closed for press, but to the fact that Yanukovych was seated far away from Putin [at the Olympics opening. – Ed.].
“Considering the fact there were no loud statements in Russian mass media, the meeting did not end well for both Yanukovych and Putin. There is also an important and bold statement by the Russian Ministry of Finance, in which a doubt is expressed as to the Ukrainian president’s ability to form a competent government. The statement notifies that the Ministry of Finance will give the promised loan to Ukraine, but it would like to know who it should contact. This statement obviously could not have been an independent initiative. It is quite possible that Putin starts thinking about the real change of the government in Ukraine.
“It is hard to speculate on what they could be agreeing upon. It would be interesting to understand what exactly they discussed. Let us assume, Yanukovych asked if Russia supported him during the presidential election. In my opinion, it is pointless for Putin to give a positive answer to that now, because he is trying to bind any Ukrainian government with the issued loan. The loan to Ukraine was given in a way that makes it impossible to contest in international courts. There cannot be any other tranches if the situation develops in a way that Putin does not find satisfactory. There was no increase in Putin’s trust in Yanukovych, it has always been low. There is a feeling Putin will try to keep Yanukovych on the hook, but it is not clear what other concessions Ukraine can make. The next stage is Russia’s attempt to lay claim on the territory. The geopolitical concession Yanukovych made is marginal in the current situation between Ukraine and Russia. Giving more would mean giving away business and the country in general.
“Considering this, Putin has a reason to watch the events in Ukraine without really helping, because chaos and destabilization in the country might provide favorable environment for the future attempts to tear the country apart. This does not exclude the fact that in the consciousness that is typical for the Russian politic elite and Putin in particular, the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not a value.
“Is Moscow expecting a violent scenario? It is hardly likely. If we recall the violent option, which Russia really used in Georgia (during the Olympics in Beijing), it happened when Russia was in a fundamentally different economic situation. It is absolutely obvious now that Russia has no reasons (including the economic ones) to aggravate relations with the West. The other thing is that violent scenario could become possible if Crimean authorities and leaders of some other regions promoted separatist sentiments. But for now, it is unlikely.
“Russian leadership is not interested in any stable government in Ukraine.
“The majority of Russians are not worried over the situation in Ukraine. Ukraine is following the political path that Russia is yet to find. Ukraine is painstakingly trying to form the statehood that is not formed in Russia as well. Russia can support the state of a post-Soviet latent republic that finishes up Soviet legacy.”
Interviewed by Ihor SAMOKYSH, The Day
