It was reported recently that US president-elect Donald Trump was considering Mitt Romney for the position of secretary of state, the fourth highest office in the hierarchy of the US administration. Let us recall that Romney ran for US president in 2012 but lost to Barack Obama. He said during the Republican primaries this March that Trump had “neither the temperament nor the judgment” to be president, and accused him of bullying, sexism, and insincerity.
“They had a good meeting. It was a warm and substantive exchange, and I know that he is under active consideration to serve as secretary of state... along with some other distinguished Americans,” US vice president-elect Mike Pence said in an interview with Fox News when discussing Trump’s November 19 talks with Romney.
Trump also said on November 20 that he was considering General (Ret.) James Mattis for secretary of defense. Trump tweeted that Mattis, whom he met in New Jersey on November 19, “was very impressive yesterday. A true General’s General!”
The Day asked American experts to comment on possible appointments to key positions of secretaries of state and defense in the Trump administration, as well as Michael Flynn’s appointment as national security advisor to the president.
“ALL NAMES MENTIONED HAVE AN EXCELLENT UNDERSTANDING OF THE DANGERS OF MR. PUTIN’S REVISIONIST POLICIES”
John HERBST, Director, Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Washington, D.C.:
“LTG Flynn has been a long-time supporter of candidate Trump in his bid for the presidency. His appointment is no surprise. He is an expert on the problem of Islamic extremism and has done important work in this area. He has less expertise on other areas, including Russia and Ukraine. The appointment of Mike Pompeo, who has excellent security credentials, is a good sign of Mr. Trump’s willingness to reach out to establishment Republicans. Nearly all names mentioned as possible Secretaries of State and Defense – Bolton, Corker, Giuliani, Romney, Hadley – have an excellent understanding of the dangers of Mr. Putin’s revisionist policies and, also, the need to support Ukraine. It is not clear what President Trump’s policies toward Kyiv and Moscow will be, but if people with sound views take these critical jobs, and if VP-Elect Pence plays a role on these questions, the results could be good.”
“THERE WILL BE SANE VOICES INSIDE THE TRUMP TEAM...”
Adrian KARATNYCKY, senior research fellow, US Atlantic Council; Myrmidon Group LLC, Washington, D.C.:
“In the 2012 debate, Mitt Romney mentioned Russia in his argument with Obama, saying it was our number-one geopolitical foe, while the administration was being busy with the so-called ‘reset.’ In particular, he hinted that Russia was an adversary rather than a competitor. Romney thus had a very sober view of the potential threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia. And if he is selected as secretary of state, he will focus deeply on Ukraine and sustained promotion of reforms there. He understands that the core or the backbone of a country is created by its economic strength and orderly economic management. I think he will also be a strong voice for more aggressive policy regarding Russia and Putin’s aggression.
“As for General Mattis, he said in the first months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine that the crisis’s importance was underestimated by everyone in NATO and the American leadership. The general has proven to be a strong hawk, judging from his pronouncements. All this suggests there will be sane voices inside the Trump team, including General Mattis, who will implement a more hawkish policy on Russia.
“If we talk about the specifics of Trump’s foreign policy, they involve some measure of economic nationalism, a serious reassessment of trade agreements from a business perspective, determining how useful they really are for the US economy. I think it will bring about some perturbations in the system of allies and economic partners of America. Still, I believe that Trump’s policy will most probably call for those countries assuming the bulk of responsibility for their own destinies and economies, and America ceasing to be the guarantor of their well-being. He will seek alliances and compacts on bilateral terms, but even that may well benefit Ukraine should it take the right decisions and show itself as a reliable partner for America.
“Meanwhile, high spending on infrastructure projects will demonstrate his intention to restore America’s image a bit.
“We see that the only country that has avoided a major wave of populism is Germany, which has invested a lot in the development of its industry and created a more technologically advanced industry. I think that one of Trump’s priorities will be to restore traditional industries, which had prosperous workers late in the Industrial Revolution. And now, in times of post-industrial economy, they are suffering greatly. And it is this subset of disgruntled traditionally Democratic voters that switched to Trump, who promised to help them. At the same time, we will witness a fairly brisk recovery of America’s military strength. Trump wants to implement a 20-percent increase in the Armed Forces’ numbers, restore and strengthen the Navy, and attract new investments in the military-industrial complex.”
What are the reasons for such a military build-up?
“Trump believes if America’s enemies understood that it had a great military strength, they would never try to enter into conflict with America.
“Most trends are positive. There is a danger that Trump would try to seek a modus Vivendi with Putin, an agreement with the Russian leader. In my opinion, no member of his inner circle, which includes highly experienced politicians like Romney and Mattis, will allow Putin to outsmart him. So I think that over time, these supposedly nice words that were said between the two presidents and made Ukraine worry, they will not have any special, profound significance for relations between the two countries. The new administration will protect and strengthen America and, to quote Rudy Giuliani, deter Russia from more aggressive behavior, and at the same time look for opportunities to find a common ground in the anti-terrorist war on Islamic extremism.”
You have probably paid attention to experts saying there is a major difference between business deals and multilateral agreements. So what to expect from Trump, who promises to withdraw from multilateral international agreements?
“I think Trump will surround himself not only with people with business background, but also with generals. The latter do not think in terms of business, but rather those of security. For example, Romney, though a businessman, is more of an investor than an industrialist or a realtor like Trump. So, I think there will be a slightly different influence at work there. Instead of practicing the art of the deal, we will rather see sober and diplomatic trends becoming prominent. Of course, it should be noted that not everything will necessarily develop as predicted. Still, the focus will be on intelligent and strong American foreign policy.”
Some Ukrainian Americans advise Ukraine to send a security delegation to the US as soon as possible and negotiate with Trump. What do you say to that?
“I think it is unlikely that such a group will find it easier to get a meeting with Trump. Even if they come to the US, they have to show that Ukraine is a reliable partner on security and reform. It should move in the right direction, and in that context, any attempts to undermine the state through various forms of populism are unacceptable. All patriotic political leaders must be responsible and work to enhance the image of Ukraine as a country which has some core stability, a will to protect itself and ensure its prosperity through healthy policies and certain anti-corruption actions.”
By the way, the fact that Ukraine spends 5 percent of GDP on defense should be an argument in its favor...
“Yes, it is a good argument that could affect positively the assessment of Ukraine’s role in the security system which Trump will somehow try to stabilize. I think there will still be some respect shown for those countries that care about their interests and show that they are successful and have effective political elites.”
In an interview with a US TV channel, Giuliani did say the US would strengthen its Armed Forces to deter further Russian actions, but we have not heard anything on what the new administration will do to return Crimea to Ukraine.
“While curbing Russian expansionism and imperial tendencies is a US objective, General Mattis said in a congressional testimony that Putin had gone down the path of imperialism and nationalism, and he was finding it not easy to maneuver, since he had now become a hostage to the logic of his ideology. And here, people who will shape the foreign policy of America will understand that the US should not recognize one of Putin’s steps towards expansionism and revisionism, because such a policy would encourage, not deter him, contrary to what Trump’s closest associates say, and that group includes hawks.
“I think Trump will not lift sanctions on Russia and will extend them for another six months. At the same time, he will likely put pressure on NATO allies to fulfill their obligations and spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense. I think that such pressure on Trump’s part will contribute to rearmament in European countries that have been failing to reach that target and thus share the burden.”
