Parliamentary elections have been held in the Netherlands, in which an all-time high number, 28, of political parties took part. But this is not the only particularity of the public vote in that country which is the only EU state not to have yet ratified the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. For this very reason, Kyiv is not indifferent to the elections in the country of tulips, where the far right populist Party for Freedom (PVV), whose leader favors withdrawal of the Netherlands from the EU, has gained popularity lately.
There are several particularities of this year’s elections.
Firstly, there is in fact no electoral threshold for parties in the Netherlands, which adds to the intrigue of the parliamentary elections. This means that 10 or even more parties can win seats in the legislative body.
Secondly, this year’s elections are being held against the backdrop of a dispute between the Netherlands and Turkey. It will be recalled that the Dutch government banned Turkish officials from attending rallies on its territory in support of the referendum on granting more powers to the president of Turkey.
Thirdly, the Dutch will count all election ballots by hand to thwart hacking.
Fourthly, it is expected that the greatest surprise in these elections will be the result of the “Greens” and their new leader Jesse Klaver who has managed to raise this party’s rating from 3 to 11 percent. Klaver resembles the Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau very much, and the media often portray him as a smart “playboy” in politics.
Fifthly, the parties are competing on the basis of their world-views rather than programs. As a Ukrainian diplomat told The Day off the record, the world-view-based competition is about whether the Netherlands will remain the foundation of the European Union and continue to reap all the benefits of international cooperation, which the current Premier Mark Rutte, leader of the right liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), favors, or, as Geert Wilders, leader of the far right populist Party for Freedom, says, “we will bring back Holland to the Dutch, and Brussels will dictate us nothing.”
So it is the abovementioned VVD and PVV parties that are chiefly vying for representation in a 150-seat parliament. The parties Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and Democrats 66 (D66) can also count on a considerable number of seats in parliament.
The latest polls show that VVD managed to leap forward first of all because most of the Dutch approved of the way Rutte behaved during the conflict with Turkey. This political party is expected to take 27 seats, followed by D66 (20), the Greens (20), CDA (19), and Wilders’ PVV (16).
These data suggest that it will take at least four parties – the centrist D66, the Christian Democrats, the Socialists, and the Greens – to form a coalition government. Incidentally, these parties have already announced their unwillingness to cooperate with Wilders’ party.
REUTERS photo
RUTTE “STOLE THE SHOW” FROM WILDERS
Sijbren de JONG, strategic analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, told The Day that these parliamentary elections are “arguably the most important in years. Europe is facing a Brexit, is grappling with populist and malign interference from outside powers (i.e. Russia) in its electoral processes. In the Netherlands, the rise of Wilders’ Freedom Party has been steady over the years. His firebrand populism is a real danger to the traditional political parties. People in the Netherlands appear to be angry about a lot of things, despite the fact that when you look at the numbers, our country is doing very well actually. Wilders plays on people’s fears and emotions, and he is successful in doing so. There is a risk that tomorrow we will wake up with Wilders’ party being the largest.”
Yet the expert believes that even if that is the case, he will have a very hard time forming a coalition. His party’s positions are so diametrically opposed to what other parties want that he will have to compromise – something he is unlikely to do.
In his words, intervening in the settlement of the Dutch-Turkish conflict, Rutte, Foreign Minister Koenders (PvdA), and the vice prime minister acted “statesman like” and stole the show from Wilders.
ANOTHER “STRENGTH TEST” FOR THE EU
On her part, Keteryna Zarembo, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Politics, said the particularity of the Netherlands elections was a competition of the two opposite forces: Geert Wilders’ far right Party for Freedom and the current premier’s moderate pro-European Party for Freedom and Democracy. She thinks that, ironically, the Dutch-Turkish diplomatic scandal can help Rutte’s party win a few points in the field usually held by nationalists – by taking advantage of anti-immigration sentiments of this political party and its voters.
Ms. Zarembo believes that these elections are another “strength test” for the EU. In her opinion, the victory of the Party for Freedom will mean a new surge of populism, including a likely Nexit. “On the contrary, the victory of Rutte’s party will show that the EU is able to contain the epidemic of populism. As Euro-skepticism is in general historically typical of the Netherlands, the victory of a pro-European party in that country would be a strong positive signal for the future of the EU. Against this background, it is worthwhile to take note of a gradually growing rating of the party of Rutte who was even ‘written off’ the Netherlands’ political Olympus at a certain moment,” the expert emphasizes.
RUTTE WILL BE FORMING A THIRD GOVERNMENT – RUTTE 3
The Day’s interlocutor thinks that polls unambiguously show that Rutte will be forming a third government – Rutte 3. In his words, the economy is in a good condition now, there are signs of growth, a lot of restaurants and stores are opening, and small- and medium-scale business is developing. So the choice will be either to support the tendency towards economic growth and stability or to put the blame for the likely problems on Muslims, refugees, and migrants. “It seems to me the Dutch are more pragmatic and will proceed from what they consider positive,” the diplomat said.
Of course, he stressed, the victory of Rutte and the formation of a coalition with the parties that support him is very important for us, for this will make it much easier for the Senate to approve the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement which the lower chamber of parliament has already passed.
