Iryna Bekeshkina, a sociologist with an immaculate record, heads the Democratic Initiatives Foundation. Her DIF was among the first to start practicing exit polls. Ms. Bekeshkina also has the rare talent of making short and absolutely clear statements. This lady has apparently long since crossed the threshold between sociology and political analysis.
In the following interview with The Day, Ms. Bekeshkina comments on what Yulia Tymoshenko and Yurii Lutsenko should expect; why the Party of Regions needs Petro Poroshenko; on the mule-headed ambitions of the current administration in making its decisions. Needless to say, my first question concerned the latest political developments in Russia.
Last week’s number-one political event is Putin’s victory, of course. We hear a lot about a rigged presidential election, yet the overall impression is that 45 million Russians sincerely cast their ballots for Putin’s third term as head of state.
“I absolutely agree. Of course, there were acts of fraud but they weren’t systemic, considering some five percent difference between the results of the two exit polls and official outcome. Most likely those falsifications are to be blamed on local ranking bureaucrats’ overzealous initiative, rather than on orders from ‘upstairs.’
“Polls held in Russia showed that Putin would win the first round of the presidential race, so his campaign staff simply didn’t have to resort to wheeling and dealing. Putin won, even in Moscow.”
The campaign results were amazing in the Russian Federation’s republics, like 93 percent of votes collected in Dagestan.
“Indeed. Moreover, Chechnya registered 99.61 percent turnout and 99.76 percent ballots cast for Putin, closely followed by the Karachay-Cherkess and the Ingushetia republics. All this makes one wonder about certain phenomena reaching much farther than a given election campaign. If and when Russia decides to become a democracy, the road will be far more winding and thorny, compared to other countries [in Eastern Europe]. Russia is an empire made up of different components. It is far more diversified compared to Ukraine.
“In Russia this problem was resolved in a simple manner. Practically all of the RF republics were auctioned off to the local ranking bureaucrats, in return for their loyalty [to the Kremlin]. Should Putin decide to rule his country by law, all those local ‘elites’ would relentlessly resist.
“I don’t know about the presence of any observers in those RF republics. From what I know, most observers were liberal intellectuals from St. Petersburg who had apparently registered a lot of transgressions during the elections in Moscow and St. Petersburg.”
Our Party of Regions had been looking forward to the presidential election in Russia, expecting Putin, as Russia’s new president, to make the gas talks easier.
“Putin will, of course, start by showing his fellow Russians that he is a real macho. The big question is at whose expense. I think that it will be at the expense of Ukraine.”
Getting back to Ukraine, there are interesting events taking place “upstairs,” with Strong Ukraine being expected to merge with the Party of Regions, also talks being underway with Baloha. Any comment?
“This is another clean-up operation in the electoral field. All those ‘upstairs’ wish to adopt Russia’s power model. This won’t work in Ukraine, period. Ukraine is protected against authoritarian governance precisely because it is divided [into the Russian- and Ukrainian-speaking regions], something media frequently refer to, with polls showing that most Ukrainian respondents want an iron fist without a velvet glove, very much like what’s happening in Russia. On the other hand, the presence of two such iron fists means that neither is strong enough. That was precisely what saved Ukraine at one time. Therefore, a clean-up mission could be carried out in only one half of Ukraine. Among the Party of Regions’ electorate are people who don’t want to cast their ballots, period. There were lots of voters who remained ‘undecided.’ To them candidates like Tihipko – with his five percent of votes – remain nonentities. Baloha? Another one with a small percentage of votes, being supported by Transcarpathia, his ‘voivodeship,’ despite the man’s current political affiliation.”
What about Petro Poroshenko? He is being actively promoted by Ukraine’s economy ministry. Why do you think President Yanukovych has suddenly decided he needs Poroshenko on his team?
“That’s another electorate clean-up operation, but one with objectives reaching as far as the year 2015.”
Really?
“That’s right. I believe there is this possibility. At one time Yulia [Tymoshenko] buried him politically, but the man is apparently a strong politician. He will doubtlessly be on the Vinnytsia majority slate and he stands every chance of forming his Solidarnist (Solidarity) faction at the Verkhovna Rada. He gets one hundred percent support at all kinds of talk shows. I don’t mean that he will win the next presidential campaign; I mean that he is very likely to become another highly competitive politician – although I would be surprised to hear him say he will run for president.”
Valerii Khoroshkovsky. How would you explain his mind-boggling career, considering the possibility of his presidential candidacy?
“My answer is a definite no. Ukrainians will never cast their ballots for Valerii Khoroshkovsky – and I will decline further comment.”
Because of political glamour?
“He isn’t one of our men. This character isn’t on anyone’s side. I guess one shouldn’t bother to look far for reasons behind Khoroshkovsky’s current appointment. Ukraine’s economy is in a bad way. Those ‘upstairs’ were looking for a good manager.”
Few if any Ukrainian politicians would be willing to assume responsibility for European integration under the circumstances, especially after [ex-Interior Minister] Yurii Lutsenko received his prison term. Weren’t you shocked?
“I was shocked because it was a slap in Europe’s face after Yulia [Tymoshenko’s] trial. It was a senseless and shockingly predictable political move. The worst thing a government can do is make a stupid decision. After Yulia [official Kyiv] ought to have released Lutsenko from jail, by soft-pedaling the case, reducing it to material damage, considering the term the man had actually spent in jail, making him pay a sum and setting him free. I mean a deal could be made, considering that nothing is done in Ukraine under its lamentable legislation, then some bureaucrats would proudly say: ‘You can see that our courts of law issue sentences in strict accordance with our legislation.’
“What actually happened was pure absurd, proving that the current Ukrainian administration is totally exposed to mulish emotions, that those ‘upstairs’ can order anyone who bothers them to be thrown behind bars.”
There are political analysts who keep trying to prove such political decisions logical and work out a few moves ahead.
“It’s hard to figure out what is happening ‘upstairs’ in Ukraine, considering that we keep making plans relying on the left hemisphere while they keep sticking to the right hemisphere.”
One of the popular opposition campaign statements reads that Yulia Tymoshenko and Yurii Lutsenko will be let out of jail only after the opposition wins the next election race. Even if they do, how would these inmates be released from prison?
“Even if the opposition wins in terms of party slates, they will lose the game in the majority electoral districts. Remember the difference with the party slates back in 1998?”
Why should they fail in the majority electoral districts? If they had a single candidate, the western and central regions of Ukraine would surely cast their ballots for him, wouldn’t they?
“A single candidate is a very unlikely possibility, in the first place. Second, there will be more than a ruling-party-opposition-candidate competition (considering a more or less predictable scenario, with the former collecting most votes in the east and the latter in the west of Ukraine, even granted varying votes in Ukraine’s central regions). There are business interests involved. These interests are beginning to have their effect on the local electorate districts.
“Kyiv is certainly the opposition center, although I’m not sure that Kyiv will vote for Dovhy, even though the man is visiting Kyiv apartments, handing out presents. Lutsky [another candidate] is following suit in Sviatoshyn district. In other words, this campaign is on a favor-collecting basis. People in a given electoral district will cast their ballots for those who can help solve their pressing problems, like allowing or forbidding local grade schools’ renovation. Therefore, I think our opposition will never become a majority.”
It’s anyone’s guess how they’re going to get Tymoshenko and Lutsenko out of jail.
“Right. In the very little likelihood of their being able to build a majority, how would they go about getting Tymoshenko and Lutsenko out of prison? By ordering the court to change its ruling? All our courts of law are taking orders from President Yanukovych. None will be released unless ordered by a court of law.”
What are the chances for Tymoshenko and Lutsenko?
“European courts.”
Their rulings are actually recommendations.
“I believe that the current Ukrainian administration will come to its senses, that those ‘upstairs’ will be really scared by what is happening in Russia, even though this administration is showing less progress than the previous one. This administration has very strong business interests that must be shared with Russia. One can only hope that those ‘upstairs’ in Kyiv will finally realize that being left alone with the big bad Russian bear is a bad idea.”
In other words, Putin may become the decisive factor that will force Ukraine to continue on the road leading to EU membership, come what may.
“Well, there is a deadlock. Siding with Putin would end up with Russia absorbing Ukraine, considering that their ill-earned capital is even more aggressive and stronger than that of Ukraine. Europe would be happy to sign all the required agreements with Ukraine, but this would call for Ukraine’s proper conduct, respect for the European values – that boil down to the notion of democracy.
“Democracy means that those currently in power may lose it overnight. In other words, Europe is prepared to accept Ukraine, provided Ukraine’s current administration is prepared to step down, if and when. It isn’t. Once out of jail, Yulia Tymoshenko would start campaigning, meeting with people, making statements.”
A number of members of the Party of Regions told me the court ruling would have been different, had that protest rally numbered 30-50 thousand.
“Right. People get disillusioned, including Tymoshenko fans, but once their personal interests are affected, they leave their homes and take part in protest rallies. You don’t have to pay them.”
You mean people are prepared to protest against sausage prices, rather than fight for an idea?
“No one will fight for an abstract idea. Most will fight to protect their personal interests.”
Back in 2004 people gathered on the Maidan to protect an idea. They had no “sausage interests” in mind.
“Those people felt offended by a rigged presidential election. They realized that other rigged campaigns would follow, that Kuchma’s regime would live forever, unless they stop it, there and then. Few care to remember all those arrogant falsifications, and the way Yushchenko was poisoned.”
Viktor Yushchenko cuts an interesting political figure. It takes special talent to rise so high and then, suddenly, drop so low.
“Yushchenko is an incredible phenomenon, further proof of my dumb-wise-politician thesis. A stupid politician as head of state poses a threat to that country. I would say that this is worse than corruption, but when corruption is coupled with political stupidity, the result is an even bigger threat to the state. Anyone involved in corruption knows that killing the goose that lays the golden egg makes no sense.”
We have new politicians. Vitali Klitschko wants to run for Kyiv Mayor and he will be Popov’s number-one adversary, all things considered. What do you think?
“Polls are thin ice in this sense, considering their varying data. Everything depends on the slate. There is no formal list of nominees. Sociologists are working on it as ordered and paid for. However, putting together various data, Klitschko is ahead by a small percentage, but his electorate is mostly young, and young people prove to be unreliable voters, I mean some of them will simply forget about casting their ballots. There is also the undecided percentage, so the overall situation is absolutely unpredictable.”
The election date is important, isn’t it?
“Of course. There is a big difference between such elections being held in summer, with most college/university off on holidays, and during the parliamentary campaign, with the Party of Regions faction promoting Popov. In fact, I believe that Popov could win if he weren’t a member of the Party of Regions which is markedly unpopular with Kyiv public.”
