The separatists have been shelling positions of the anti-terrorist operation forces in the Donbas with increasing intensity lately. The daily number of attacks, some of them involving Grad multiple launch rocket systems, has climbed to over 150, the level not seen for months. All these violations of agreements on ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy artillery and tanks are occurring in full view of the OSCE observers.
What is the West’s response to it all, then? In particular, what of Germany, which, as a party to the so-called Normandy format, joined France to effectively force the Ukrainian government to sign the Minsk 2 accords on February 12, and keeps putting pressure on Ukraine to ensure its compliance with all the 13 points of that agreement, but does not try to influence Russia in the slightest, even as the latter funds and arms the militants, and sends so-called “volunteer soldiers” to swell their ranks?
Foreign Minister of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier described in an interview with Bild am Sonntag on August 16 the situation in the east of Ukraine as “explosive,” and stated the need to bring to the negotiating table representatives of Ukraine, unrecognized Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, and the OSCE mission!
“There is a lot at stake. If both parties in the conflict do not return to the peace process, a new military escalation spiral could be triggered at any time,” Steinmeier was quoted as saying by the Reuters news agency.
This statement by the German minister is totally at odds with the previous arrangements that did not provide for such format of communication between Ukrainian authorities and the unrecognized terrorist organizations. On the other hand, President of Poland Andrzej Duda suggested in a call with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, made on August 15, a new format of negotiations on the conflict settlement in the Donbas, involving the most powerful countries in Europe and Ukraine’s neighbors, including Poland.
Meanwhile, former foreign minister of Poland Radoslaw Sikorski’s August 17 opinion piece in Financial Times criticized individual European states’ attempts to solve troublesome issues on their own. “On Ukraine, the EU is not even at the negotiating table. Instead, Germany and France – neither of whom shares a border with Ukraine – have taken it upon themselves to manage Russian aggression, with only partial success,” he stressed.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs told The Day they were studying the statement by the German foreign minister, and therefore could not comment on it yet.
The Day turned to experts asking them to comment on the statement by the German minister positing the need to bring to the negotiating table representatives of Ukraine, unrecognized Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, and the OSCE.
Edward LUCAS, senior vice president of the Center for European Policy Analysis, London:
“If a robbery is going on, you do not tell the householder and the criminal to sit down and discuss their differences peacefully. You call the police. The moral equivalence that the West draws between the lawful government in Kyiv and Russia’s proxies in the east is revolting and dangerous.”
John HERBST, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, member of the Atlantic Council; Washington, D.C.:
“It is inconvenient for Mr. Steinmeier to acknowledge the plain truth that the fighting in Ukraine’s east is a hybrid war initiated and conducted by the Kremlin. Without Russian leadership, financing weapons and soldiers, there would be no conflict in the Donbas. To acknowledge this plain truth would make it very hard for Mr. Steinmeier and his party to continue arguing for a weak policy toward Moscow.
“I understand President Duda’s frustration with the current format for talks. Germany and especially France have not always been strong and forthright mediators ensuring a fair process. For instance, massive Kremlin violations of Minsk 1, which should have led to additional sanctions, instead led to a new ‘ceasefire,’ Minsk 2, with terms even less favorable to Ukraine. That said, despite pressure within the EU, Germany led the way for the renewal sanctions given Moscow’s refusal to implement the terms of Minsk 2. That is important and positive.
“That said, a new framework along the lines suggested by the Polish president would be better than the current one. But given the shortsighted preference of the White House to let the Europeans – meaning the Germans – lead the way in what is clearly a major international crisis, the likelihood of a new negotiating approach in the short term is unlikely. But if the Kremlin overreaches, for instance, and launches a major offensive to take Mariupol, the White House and its European allies might respond with greater support for Ukraine, including defensive, lethal equipment, and more sanctions on Russia.
“The US has expressed concern regarding the recent uptick in aggression by Moscow’s proxies in the Donbas; but unless that uptick leads to a major acquisition of more Ukrainian territory, we are unlikely to see a change in Western policy.”
Hanna HOPKO, chair of the Verkhovna Rada Committee for Foreign Affairs, Kyiv:
“Ukraine has long been on the path of peaceful settlement and complied with its commitments as befits a reliable partner. If there is a need to get the parties to make the deal, it is Vladimir Putin who should give a clear signal to his separatist terrorist stooges that their criminal actions will only drive Russia into even greater isolation.
“Ukraine draws the world’s attention to Russia’s disregard for its obligations under the Minsk Accords. The transatlantic unity must force Russia and its terrorist stooges to finally stop deceiving the world and begin to fulfill the initial provisions of the Minsk 2 by ceasing shelling and withdrawing heavy armaments. The matter of providing Ukraine with certain kinds of lethal defensive weapons has developed from a matter of preventing further Russian aggression into a matter of making the Minsk 2 work, as these accords are violated all the time by the militants and Russian soldiers who shell Ukrainian positions with heavy artillery and tanks.”
“Therefore, Steinmeier should start discussing with his EU counterparts a new package of sanctions and urge Putin to stop his mercenaries’ activity on foreign soil. The world has not recognized the separatists. Russian propaganda has failed to achieve it. If Steinmeier cannot calm Putin down and force him to comply with the Minsk 2, let him go to eastern Ukraine and engage the separatists at the negotiating table.
“Poland’s interest in resolving the crisis in the east of Ukraine and avoiding escalation stems from that nation’s historical memory. It is also important that we have seen contact established between the newly elected Polish president and the president of Ukraine. A bilateral meeting is being prepared now. This also means that the economic interests of Poland have made their impact. Ukraine borrows from Poland the best business practices as well as experience of reform and decentralization. We know that Poland will elect a new Sejm this October. We are interested in strengthening relations between our two countries’ executive and legislative branches.”
