On September 1 the Russian and terrorist troops really ceased fire in the Donbas, for the first time since the Kremlin committed aggression against Ukraine. Of course, there is some sporadic fire, but the situation radically differs from what it was earlier. President Petro Poroshenko also said the other day that the adversary is carrying out this part of the Minsk Agreements. What does the ceasefire mean and how can the situation develop further on?
No. 1. To begin with, we would like to emphasize that, as it often happens in Ukraine, politicians and the mass media have “forgotten” to recall the real people who keep the ball rolling. Responsibility for ceasefire and all the military issues is the domain of the security subgroup, with Yevhen Marchuk at the head, of the Trilateral Contact Group. It cost Mr. Marchuk incredible efforts to make a ceasefire deal so that children could begin their school year as always. Incidentally, Marchuk participates in the Minsk process exclusively on a voluntary basis.
“I thank our military and diplomats (it is also a front for them),” Iryna Herashchenko, head of Ukraine’s humanitarian subgroup, writes in her Facebook. “And I’d like to believe that our Minsk group is also making a small and modest contribution to this. The hottest place now is the security subgroup, where Yevhen Marchuk adequately represents us. I will tell you it is a generation that is always in shape. It is an honor to learn something from them.”
The next task the security subgroup is facing is to finalize the text of an agreement on withdrawing weapons with caliber under 100 mm in the Donbas. These negotiations are still underway.
SEPTEMBER 8, 2015. MINSK, BELARUS / Photo from Iryna HERASHCHENKO’s Facebook page
No. 2. We opposed the “Minsk format” from the very beginning, but we should take into account the existing realities of today. Yes, the current leadership has allowed itself to be led into a trap. Firstly, instead of making real changes and dropping the old rules after the Euromaidan, it has in fact remained part of the old “Kuchma-Yanukovych system.” The proof of this is the appointment of Leonid Kuchma, the architect of an oligarchic clan system, as chief negotiator in Minsk and member of the Constitutional Commission. Accordingly, this country saw the same problems in the new conditions rather than reforms. Meanwhile, Moscow has been consistently implementing its long-prepared plan to destabilize Ukraine.
So, Ukraine has found itself in dire straits. It must break free from this situation, all the more so that Ukraine has already made commitments within the framework of the Minsk Agreements. What is the latest news in this context? The Normandy Four leaders expect the negotiators to make a deal on the terms and conditions of local elections in the war-affected Donbas areas on the basis of the Ukrainian law. UNIAN quotes the German federal government’s spokesman Steffen Seibert as saying that an agreement to this effect was reached as a result of a phone conversation between Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel and presidents Francois Hollande of France, Petro Poroshenko of Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin of Russia.
“All the parties welcomed the fact that the ceasefire agreed on September 1 and brokered by the Trilateral Contact Group is still widely observed and called for redoubling efforts to further improve the security situation, including unlimited and secure access of OSCE monitors to the Donbas conflict zone, the full withdrawal of heavy weapons and completion of the withdrawal of under-100mm-caliber weapons. In the coming weeks, the parties should agree on the terms and conditions of local elections in the war-affected areas on the basis of Ukrainian legislation and OSCE/ODIHR standards,” Seibert said.
The four leaders also confirmed that they are ready to meet in early October in the Normandy Format at a Paris summit. But this should be preceded by a meeting of foreign ministers on September 12 in Berlin. Ukraine’s chief goal now is to force the Kremlin to meet its commitments under the Minsk Agreements.
No. 3. It is very important how Ukraine itself is making use of the ceasefire. Alarmingly, the government has not yet imposed economic sanctions against certain Russian entities, LIGA Business Inform reports. “As of September 8, 2015, no special economic and other restrictive sanctions were imposed against individuals and legal entities of the Russian Federation in the procedure set out by the Law of Ukraine No. 1644-VII ‘On Sanctions’ dated August 14, 2014,” the National Security and Defense Council notes. This is occurring at a time when our country is asking the entire world to punish Russia with sanctions. Naturally, this kind of double standards cannot build trust with either the Ukrainian public or our international partners.
COMMENTARY
“OUR SCENARIO IS TO FORM AN ANTI-PUTIN COALITION, INCREASE SANCTIONS, AND STRENGTHEN THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE”
Volodymyr OHRYZKO, ex-foreign minister of Ukraine, Kyiv:
“It seems to me that the Kremlin has decided to somewhat change its tactic in connection with two moments. Firstly, it was pompously announced about Putin’s participation in the upcoming anniversary session of the UN General Assembly, where he will try again to project the image of a fighter against terrorism and a peacemaker, etc. So it would be absolutely illogical to intensify armed provocations and attacks in the period between early September and the beginning of the UNGA. Secondly, Putin is trying to lay a certain groundwork for avoiding accusations of conflict escalation and, on the other hand, he wants to show that Russia is really not implicated in this and, moreover, is a guarantor of settlement.
“I think this short period of lull will only last until Putin comes back from New York.
“If we analyze the course of negotiations in the security group which deals with these matters, we will see that as long ago as late June the Ukrainian side put forward concrete proposals about how to withdraw weapons of a caliber fewer than 100 mm within days or, at most, weeks. But we must say today that the talks held, particularly, on September 8 and 9 produced no results. In reality, the Russian side – via its puppets DNR and LNR – is not interested in achieving peace in the Donbas. This is why they employ the tactics of foot-dragging and continuation of endless and fruitless negotiations. Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian side, which has made proposals on this matter before, is not to blame.
“Therefore, in my view, we should draw no far-reaching positive and peaceful conclusions from the current lull. We are still in for a very difficult period of fighting at the front in the literal sense of the word and at the diplomatic front. So, I would not think of a scenario to change our tactics. It should remain the same: to form an anti-Putin coalition, increase sanctions, and strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is a combination of the responses that can force Putin to really retreat.
“It is Ukraine that should decide to impose sanctions against Russia, for it is strange to demand that others impose sanctions, instead of doing so on our own. I think the political line towards increased sanctions must be pursued further on.
“Obviously, when such a highly-professional individual as Yevhen Marchuk is involved, this will, naturally, much raise the quality of the documents under discussion. It is no secret that specialists should be invited to do this kind of work, for politicians often fail to see the underwater reefs, which a specialist will identify at once. So, the involvement of such a ‘heavyweight,’ of course, helps us speak with the Russian side in the language of facts, professionalism, and reason.
“But it is clear that Russia is not exactly interested in achieving a result that would suit all the sides. Russia is eager to see Ukraine hoist the white flag. Therefore, even though we have professionals and a desire to make a deal, this is not yet a solution. And it is still important for us to enjoy solidarity on the part of the West, increase our fighting capacity, and impose joint sanctions against the aggressor. Only this combination can have a cumulative effect on Russia.”
