Russia’s federal TV channels showed with great pomp a march in Grozny, which the local boss Ramzan Kadyrov staged in protest against the publication of cartoons in the French magazine Charlie Hebdo. He claims the march gathered over a million people, while the police name a more modest figure of 800,000.
Like all the authoritarian rulers, Kadyrov likes doing things in a big way. If you stage a march, you must gather at least a million. But he failed to match France’s three million protestors, although for an opposite reason. After all, Chechnya is not France. Yet the video footage looked impressive – besides, some scenes were shown several times. They overdid it, for even laymen noticed a montage.
The population of Chechnya is 1.35 million people, of which 280,000 live in the capital itself. The portal Caucasian Knot points out that there was a campaign in the republic to persuade people to take part in this event. The Mufti of Chechnya had a meeting with the imam and qadis (sharia judges). Residents were told it was obligatory to attend the rally. In Grozny, taxis were free of charge until 3 p.m. on the day of the march. Incidentally, swarms of heart-shaped red balloons were launched during the march. It is a symbol that came from the West which this march also showered with curses. One of the speakers even called for giving up iPhones because they are made in the West. Kadyrov, who stood next to him, was smiling approvingly. In spite of his hatred for the West, he is not going to give up the iPhone.
Even if everybody, including toddlers, came out on the march, this accounts for a mere 25 percent of the announced number. Kadyrov said there would also be people from other North Caucasus republics. This is doubtful because of, above all, technical difficulties. Every time 35,000 fans try to come to Grozny for a soccer match, this results in a transport collapse on the roads to the capital and in the city itself. In reality, only a half of the out-of-towners manage to watch the match.
Now about other problems. It was announced there would also be protesters from the neighboring Ingushetia and Dagestan. This also raises a doubt.
Well before the Grozny march, a more modest procession, “Islam against Terrorism,” was held in Ingushetia on January 17. Officially, about 20,000 people took part in it, which is quite a realistic figure. Is there any point for Ingushetia residents to go to Grozny if they have already had a similar event? Moreover, due to rather tense relations between the two republics, the Magas government would hardly fund or otherwise support this kind of journeys. There is almost the same situation with Dagestan, so it is unlikely that there will be an influx of protesters from there.
What stands behind this soap bubble of publicity? There are two vectors here – in Moscow and in Grozny.
Tellingly, the Russian capital’s city hall did not agree to a rally in protest against the insult to religious feelings, and the Muslim clergy themselves are more inclined to see this as only a potential danger. 13 Tverskaya Street arrived at a conclusion that the planned rally would be of a provocative nature and decided to disallow it. It is also reported that the Moscow authorities instructed the law-enforcement bodies to find out “why and for what purpose these individuals want to hold this rally.”
There are two aspects here. Firstly, a pro-Islamic action in Moscow can trigger a counter-protest of Russian nationalists. This may well have unpredictable consequences. Nobody wants a new Biryulevo.
Secondly, the Moscow rally would have looked rather artificial, taking into account the real situation and, to put it mildly, a controversial attitude to those of North Caucasian descent. Besides, it is two residents of Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan, who offered to organize this rally, which immediately made this event undesirable. In an atmosphere of paranoia-like fear of uncontrollable actions, rallies, marches, and any other assemblies, the Kremlin bans them all, even those in support of its policies. It is only allowed to hold what has been prepared by the government or the organizations it controls. Everything else is the work of the devil.
However, while it is undesirable to hold this kind of protests in Moscow, as well as in Kazan, Ufa, and other regions with a sizable Muslim population, Kadyrov can be allowed and even advised to do so.
For Putin, the march in Grozny and the announced mind-boggling number of participants are of great foreign-policy importance as a demonstration of strength and capabilities. After the terrorist acts in France, Putin is tapping his reserves at the Muslim front. Political scientist Nikolai Mironov believes that Moscow uses mass demonstrations in Chechnya to show the world the Kremlin’s potential force. “It is our hello to the Europeans. Let them see that we have force in our fists.” This force is being shown against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict and international confrontation.
At the same time, Russia is demonstrating to the West and, first of all, Europe its capabilities in fighting Islamist terrorism and fundamentalism – look, we put things straight in Chechnya, broke the terrorists’ neck, and can help you now. You won’t do without Russia. If you go on imposing sanctions on Russia and defending Ukraine, we will do the way the USSR did. For example, the KGB supported, via East Germany’s Stasi, terrorists from the Rote Armee Fraktion (“Red Army Faction”). We can do these well-known things again.
According to Gregory Shvedov, editor-in-chief of Caucasian Knot, Kadyrov’s rally-organization activity is in line with Moscow’s foreign policy. “Mass rallies help the Russian leadership in international debates. This march demonstrates to the world community that Russia follows a different way and has different views; and it is not always demagogy when someone speaks about different values that do not fit in with European democracy,” he says.
As Russia’s economic and financial situation is deteriorating, Putin needs, like a breath of fresh air, that Europe lift or at least ease its sanctions. At first glance, the Paris terrorist acts were supposed to make European capitals move towards Russia. But things went the other way round. Brussels has not even discussed the lifting of sanctions. The resumption of hostilities in the Donbas triggered a reaction that is directly opposite to the one Moscow expected.
As the show of force in the Donbas has flopped owing to heroic resistance of Ukrainian soldiers and the success of the so-called militia and Russian servicemen fell short of expectations, Moscow needed a different demonstration – in Grozny.
Moscow’s plans are also playing into the hands of Kadyrov himself. Konstantin Kalachev, chair of the Political Expert Group, notes: “Kadyrov’s statements that Muslims will never allow anybody to insult the name of the Prophet Muhammad mean that Chechnya is not enough for him. He is obviously laying claim to being an informal leader of all the Russian Muslims.” By resorting to such mass-scale actions, the Chechen leadership tries to raise the prestige of their region among the other regions of Russia. No other governor in Russia will claim that he can rally a million people. Moreover, he is doing his best to show personal loyalty to Putin.
Accidentally or not, a few Chechens, citizens of Russia, were arrested in France as part of counter-terrorism measures. It is not quite clear who sent them to a remote country, although it is quite logical to suspect an FSB operation. It is being made clear to the West that Arab terrorists may be reinforced with those from Chechnya. So, some decision should be made about Ukraine, as Moscow suggests. Otherwise, the Kremlin will make use of the Chechen weapon.
In principle, Moscow has rather a simple way to withdraw from the Ukraine crisis – to leave the occupied territories and begin to move towards Europe. Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko also shares this point of view. “Frankly speaking, I think Russia should also be a member of Europe. This would shape a totally new security system in the world,” he said at the University of Zurich.
They would like to go to paradise, but sins are holding them back. The Kremlin so far prefers to show force – on the Donbas battlefields and on Grozny’s squares. And Russia still has a long way to go to Europe.
COMMENTARY
“RUSSIA HAS FAILED TO FIND ITS PLACE IN THE WORLD”
Semen NOVOPRUDSKY, independent journalist, Moscow:
“This march was, undoubtedly, approved by the Kremlin, but in this case the federal authorities did not attach much importance to it. This is an action of fake democracy because all the problems associated with this march have nothing to do with real Russian life. For this kind of cartoons are legislatively banned in Russia, and Russia has a law on insulting the feelings of believers, even though it is rather vague and indistinct. But this march would have been of at least some importance if its organizers (and I think the organizer was Ramzan Kadyrov himself in Chechnya rather than, say, the Presidential Administration in Russia) had been wise enough to say that Islam opposes people who kill for cartoons and who committed this act of terror. But, as this was not said, the march was a pompous and partly mindless move.
“But, on the other hand, this action is important because it was reported that the police had arrested five Chechens, Russian citizens, in a French town on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. Some Western media presume that the current Chechen government may be involved in this act of terror. It is obvious and has been confirmed by many that Chechens are taking part – with Kadyrov’s public consent – in the hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.
“Strategically, Russia does not have an earthly chance of having its own identity outside Europe or becoming part of Asia – at least within its present-day boundaries. Incidentally, Kadyrov willingly uses Western-made gadgets and is very active in social websites. But Chechnya is not a mirror of the whole Russia in this case.
“Maybe, one of the reasons why Russia is involved in the Ukraine conflict and is slipping to self-isolation is the fact that the country has failed to find its place in the world and the current Russian elite is afraid that this place is within the framework of Western civilization. In other words, in terms of consumption standards, the Russians, at least the active part of them, are much closer to European culture and identity than to those of, say, Asia. But the majority of Russians are, as before, in a state of slumber – they are indeed unaware of their identity. This means we have this kind of passive majority, while the active minority is pro-European one way or another. The trouble is that this country is in the grip of a really acute crisis of elites and a crisis of political identity. Russia does not know its place in the world, and what it has been doing in the past year was obviously not conducive to this knowledge.”
