By Valery Zaitsev, The Day
The election's results did not surprise anybody. The speedy take-off of the Green Party and Labor Ukraine bloc were predicted by the polls already in February.
There were no big sensations, but still there were some. Elections turned out to be the dead end for a number of politicians, such as Volodymyr Yavorivsky, Viktor Musiyaka, Volodymyr Lanovy, Stepan Khmara, and Vasyl Stepenko. A big number of natural gas sector players, among whom were Intergas representatives, made it to the Verkhovna Rada. However, Intergas head and Presidential aide Ihor Sharov did not get enough votes. People supported bankers and financiers, but rejected the chairman of the Interbank Currency Exchange Vadym Hetman. The Ukrainian National Assembly is no longer in Parliament, but two representatives of the radical Fewer Words Bloc including leader of the Social National Party Oleh Tiahnybok will be an equal substitute.
The newly elected deputies have to decide on their relations with the government and the President. They will also have to elect a speaker. Some predictions could be made even now, considering the division of the forces in the Parliament.
The Party of Power
It took the Central Election Committee 72 hours to announce that the People's Democratic Party has 4.99% and Agrarian Party has 3.67%. This shows that the authorities failed not only to win the election, but also to fake the results properly. But could it have been any other way? People here are angry at the authorities. And it riles them even more, when they hear politicians swear the salary and pension debt will be paid off immediately after the elections. The Agrarians did not make it even in three days, but the People's Democratic Party (NDP) list headed by Prime Minister Valery Pustovoitenko managed finally to get over the four percent barrier. Of course 4.99% is not the 40% Pustovoitenko hoped to garner in the very Left-leaning Luhansk oblast (I wonder how many percent did he want to receive in all?), nevertheless, he considers it possible to say that the current government intends "to serve the people of Ukraine" until President Kuchma's term expires, which means another year and a half.
He does not seem to have sufficient grounds for such a hope, because with the NDP and Agrarian deputies, elected through the majoritarian districts, the pro-government bloc in the parliament is unlikely to have more than 35 seats. We could probably add to this opposition deputies from Rukh (up to 50 seats). However, even together they do not make a blocking minority. In other words much will depend on Centrist forces and the opposition.
The Left
All Leftist parties considerably increased the number of seats they had in the Parliament. Communists may count on 125 deputies in their faction, the Socialist and Peasants Party bloc 40 seats, and Progressive Socialist Party 17 seats. This may seem impressive, but Leftists will not constitute a majority in the Parliament. And their positions on many important questions differ from one another.
Hromada
Not many people doubted that Dnipropetrovsk oblast would be able to secure for Hromada enough votes to get over the four percent barrier. The President, government, and the state prosecutor's office aided it by putting Hromada under the fire of criticism right before the elections. Hromada received 4.68% and is able to create a faction with its deputies, elected through the majoritarian districts.
Hromada is likely to support limiting Presidential control over the Cabinet of Ministers and early Presidential elections. However, the Left and Hromada may fail to collect enough votes for such grandiose plans, since the Constitution would have to be changed. Together they can count on up to 190 seats.
The Center
The Green Party is the dark horse in Parliament. They are unlikely to limit their activity with environmental protection. The party's deputies are mere politicians and businessmen. Since most of them do not know anything about the grand parliamentary politics, they will take some time to get used to it, and, of course, their position will not be radical.
The situation is different with the United Social Democrats represented by Yevhen Marchuk and Leonid Kravchuk. They have been in the game for years. The group of Social Democrats may become a very attractive magnate for deputies, who would not want to join either the party of power or the opposition. Due to a number of reasons democrats do not insist on conducting early Presidential elections and therefore are a lesser evil for Kuchma and Pustovoitenko than the Communists and Hromada.
We should keep in mind the Article 106.8 of the Constitution of Ukraine, which grants the President the right to dismiss Parliament, if it fails to start sessions within 30 days. Considering the President's old "love" for the legislature and huge money invested into the election campaign by every deputy, I am certain they will manage to find a solution.
Photo by Valery Myloserdov, The Day:
The government box where the Communists want to be. In this last Parliament they only caucused there
