The word “Family,” which was once aptly used to characterize Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s inner circle, now seems to be more and more applicable to those who surround Viktor Yanukovych. The Security Service, the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Defense, the National Bank, the State Tax Service, plus the Ministry of Finance now – all these entities are run by the people associated with the current head of state or his sons. “It is already clear that the ‘family interest’ is so far limited to the two most important spheres – money and security. I do not think it needs to be explained why it is money and security: somebody must protect the achievements of the topmost person and his entourage in the financial field,” journalist Vitaly Portnikov says in his column on neswru.ua.
“THE VERTICAL CHAIN OF COMMAND STILL HAS A MARGIN OF SAFETY”
Oleksandr MARTYNIUK, chair of the Leon Analitik non-governmental analytical center at the Kyiv Institute of Sociology; head of the Volyn regional organization of the Reform and Order party:
“The nature of these two subjects of Ukrainian public life is very similar, if not identical. Both of them – the so-called Family and big-time oligarchs – have reached the current status by means of the same methods and are guided by similar values and approaches. So a conflict between them may be artificial to a large extent, it may be in a latent phase for a long time, only coming to a head when an attempt is made to critically redistribute resources, usually in the Family’s favor.
“What would benefit the Ukrainian people, still the main donor for the two above-mentioned entities, is not just a conflict between them or a struggle with variable success but a lightning war of mutual extermination. But if we drop the criteria of romantic public expediency and only rely on analyzing the course of events, then it appears that the feudal-administrative-style vertical chain of command with President Yanukovych at the head still has a margin of safety before it has reached its peak and begun to ruin. A few more portfolios to reshuffle, a few more levers of power to grab, and the pendulum will begin to swing back. The oligarchs and the entire big business will be funding and supporting all than can counterweigh the Family, including the opposition, civic movements, and informational instruments. For, otherwise, they will be in for the role of hired managers in the businesses that had completely belonged to them just The Day before.”
“WE MAY FACE THE PROSPECT OF MONARCHIC-STYLE PRESIDENTIAL POWER”
Viktor PASHCHENKO, Associate Professor, Political Science Department, Oles Honchar National University, Dnipropetrovsk:
“The president is fully capable of bringing oligarchs under his control. He has concentrated complete political power in his hands in the two years of his presidency. First of all, he established control over the uniformed services. Besides, he controls parliament and the local authorities – oblast and district administrations. The oligarchs cannot oppose this in any way, except perhaps for the mass media, but the latter are scattered and do not form a united force. Besides, the general public by no means favors the oligarchs. If the president chooses to put a certain oligarch inside, society will only applaud to this. The system of government the president has formed on the basis of the Family allows him to be afraid of nobody. The oligarchs are vulnerable in that the rights of property are not in fact guaranteed in Ukraine. Our oligarchs feel unquiet because property can be redistributed by means of the state apparatus. It is not ruled out that Ukraine will thus face the prospect of an almost monarchic-style presidential power under which the president may give and take back offices at his own discretion.”
“BOTH SIDES ARE NOT INTERESTED IN AN OVERT FACE-OFF, BUT…”
Ihor TODOROV, Professor, independent expert, Ukrainian Association of European Studies, Donetsk:
“Yes, we can see old capitalists being ousted, to some extent, by new ones, but this can also be interpreted as the ‘addition’ of the new ones to the old ones. Cabinet reshuffles undoubtedly show the increased clout of the president’s inner ‘family’ circle. Yet it is perhaps too early to ask ‘who will change who first.’ Both sides are not interested in an overt face-off. The old capitalists know from their own experience that big business needs peace. But excessive aggressiveness of the ‘young ones’ can provoke them to take a tough stance against this ‘illegal seizure.’ Sadly enough, this kind of showdown promises our compatriots no good.”
“THOSE WHO WILL CURB THEIR APPETITES WILL WIN”
Dmytro OMELCHUK, lecturer, Taurida National University; Candidate of Sciences (History):
“This resembles, in a way, the Russian process because the president will have eventually to somewhat tame the oligarchs for the country’s and people’s benefit, and this will be very correct from the angle of this country’s development. For such a radical property-based stratification, as it is in our country, will sooner or later cause acute social tension. But still we cannot compare ourselves with Russia because we do not have an equally strong president. Our oligarchs will sooner replace the president than allow themselves to be destroyed. It is difficult to forecast the mechanism, but this can occur without an impeachment or social unrest. For example, if the Party of Regions remains united, it may nominate a different person in the next elections. I don’t think the president will necessarily be removed ahead of time: the oligarchs may achieve their goal by simply forcing him to stop halfway and then replacing him with another one. In other words, there may be a third option, too.
“But I am sure that, after all, the oligarchs themselves will have to change their attitude to the Ukrainian state very soon. The point is the old practice of pumping out funds and the enrichment of the few at the state’s expense leads to a deadlock and collapse, including that of the oligarchs themselves: this adversely affects competitiveness and social stability. Ukraine is losing positions on the world arena. So the war between the leadership and the oligarchs will be won by the rich who will force the president to stop and cease his onslaught but will then have to curb their appetites, too. It will be very difficult for the oligarchs to take this step. But they will have to do so. Meanwhile, owing to his universally-recognized inability to ensure social justice in the state, the president is losing foreign support and respect of the world community, which gives more chances to the oligarchs and the people who work with them.”
“EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE VOTER… SO FAR”
Ihor HULYK, political expert, Lviv:
“I would put the question as follows: how long will the Ukrainian voter be passively watching this shuffling of the governmental deck” If he turns out to be patient enough, the ‘family oligarchs’ will eventually choose a successor, as was the case in Russia, and this successor will therefore be spawning Ukrainian ‘Khodorkovskys’ – the ‘fat cats’ that will hinder him from dominating the entire country. This is the saddest possible forecast because, firstly, this will mean that all the Ukrainian business elite can do is copycat Russian scenarios, and, secondly, it will take too long a time for democracy to develop in this country.
“But The Day’s question is also topical. Judging by the Party of Region’s ratings that painfully resemble the fall path of a shot-down aircraft, the oligarchs will be searching for reserve baskets to put their eggs in on the eve of the parliamentary elections. In other words, new political projects are suppliers of potential parliamentary fighters. The president has formally distanced himself from his political ‘cover,’ laying the nominal duties and responsibility for the PR destiny at the premier’s door. By persistently keeping Azarov in the office of prime minister and, at the same time, dishing out the key Cabinet posts to the Family’s people, Yanukovych is trying to moderate the efforts of capital in a purely administrative way.
“The only problem is the extent to which this way can ‘cut off oxygen’ to the moneybags who are striving to capture foreign, including European and Russian, markets. Should the ambitions of the ‘out-of-the-system’ (read: out-of-the-Family) oligarchs reach out very far, they will be trying to hinder the formation of a pro-presidential parliamentary majority. If they succeed in this, why not think over a new zigzag in Ukraine’s political setup – getting back to a parliamentary-presidential republic? In this case the Family will be doomed to defeat.
“But let me say again: all depends on the Ukrainian voter. For this reason, the coming parliamentary race will also be a Rubicon of sorts for many of today’s moneybags: neck or nothing. With this in view, they will spare neither expense, nor effort, nor promises to fully discredit the government, ridicule its lack of professionalism, antisocial stand, and archaism. The ricochet will inevitably hit the Party of Regions and show Yanukovych that far from all problems of state-formation can be solved in a family circle.”
“INDEPENDENCE WILL PLAY A NASTY TRICK ON THE PRESIDENT”
Ostap DROZDOV, author and host of the political program “In the Clear,” ZIK TV channel, Lviv:
“With all my disrespect for Yanukovych, I must say he is now the most objectionable and dangerous figure for the oligarchs because he wants to replace the system of clan-based oligarchy with that of family-based oligarchy. To put it roughly, Yanukovych is essentially reducing and narrowing the clans. From this angle, he is a worthy continuer of the Maidan traditions, for the formation of family cartels in Ukraine was one of the gains of the [Orange] Revolution. Kuchma was, from this viewpoint, just a genius of collective oligarchy, to which capital as such, not family membership, was the admission ticket. Yushchenko upstaged this system and founded family-based oligarchy. Yushchenko’s presidency was an hour of triumph for his family: he appointed his children’s godfathers Poroshenko as Security and Defense Council secretary, Tretiakov as Presidential Cabinet chief, Martynenko as parliamentary faction head, Burdiuhov as his representative in the Crimea, Chervonenko, Pavlenko, and Bilozir as governmental ministers, while his brother Petro and nephew Yaroslav also found a place in the ‘orange’ sun. So why should we wonder at Yanukovych who has only picked up the baton?
“Yet the situation with the president is more than paradoxical. As of today, odd as it may sound, Yanukovych is the most independent politician. His pattern of coexistence with oligarchy is a typical barter (quid pro quo). Throughout his presidency, Yanukovych has been incessantly buying himself off the oligarchs. For example, he wrote off a 24-billion debt of Akhmetov’s and Firtash’s fuel and energy businesses. This alone is enough to live a trouble-free life in Mizhhiria. For this reason, Yanukovych is quickly separating from the Kuchma model of clan-based oligarchy and becoming a lone wolf of sorts. I forecast that this independence will play a nasty trick on the president. Once Yanukovych stops buying off the oligarchs, he will be in for the destiny of an outcast. It is not ruled out that in a few years’ time Akhmetov, Firtash, ‘Yura of Yenakievo,’ and the company will ‘shape’ a different president. Yatseniuk or any other oppositionist will be a treat for the clan-based oligarchy. So, in my view, Yanukovych begins to assume the features of a bold hero who has deliberately fallen out of the oligarchic team and is trying to become an ace on his own. The ‘Donetsk guys’ are so far patiently watching this, trying to squeeze as much as possible from Yanukovych’s presidency. But things have changed: they have lost control of him.”
Interviewed by Serhii STUKANOV, Donetsk; Mykola SEMENA, Simferopol; Tetiana KOZYRIEVA, The Day, Lviv; Vadym RYZHKOV, The Day, Dnipropetrovsk; Natalia MALIMON, The Day, Lutsk
