Prominent international figures are talking about the possibility of lifting sanctions on Russia. This talk is predicated on the Kremlin honoring its Minsk obligation in full. It is clear that Russia did not start the war in the Donbas and annex Crimea only to retreat. Vladimir Putin took as much as he was allowed to and could hold, and he has no intention to leave those areas. However, the sanctions are burdensome not only for Russia, but also for the West, which wants to weaken its pressure and is largely driven not by the desire to let Putin go but rather by the need to get some rest for itself. That is why some world leaders insist on holding elections in the Donbas, while trying to avoid talking about the presence of Russian troops and collaborators there.
The past two years have seen the OSCE becoming notorious for its willful blindness. Of course, we may not, in fairness, fail to mention the dangers which OSCE monitors are facing and the fact that many of them are really conscientiously doing their job, but still, it cannot be denied that this body is strongly influenced by Russia. Perhaps that is why the Russian side has already sent certain signals by agreeing to the so-called OSCE police mission being deployed in the occupied territories. Putin called this decision a “right one,” while the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov clarified that the presence of the mission should be approved by the militants as well. Actually, the Kremlin has been trying to force the government of Ukraine into direct dialog with the militants (which would mean their recognition) from the very beginning of the conflict, and it almost succeeded once (in June 2014). But then, the government was able to hide the shame of negotiations in Donetsk, when the entire world saw Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Medvedchuk, and Nestor Shufrych sharing a table with the gangsters’ bosses, due to the fact that the Ukrainian side was represented by unofficial envoys with unclear powers.
This time, it looks like Petro Poroshenko has taken the bait of the police mission by stating that this idea “is firmly held by the Ukrainian side.” Perhaps it happened because Poroshenko himself has long been eager to somehow “put to sleep” the smoldering conflict, that is, so to speak, to make it predictable, nicer-looking, and nominally invisible. In his turn, boss of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ Oleksandr Zakharchenko reacted quickly, promising to “execute by firing squad” any OSCE official who would bring “as much as a handgun” to Donetsk. For sure, Zakharchenko has no need whatsoever for another armed force in his bailiwick, because it would infringe on his monopoly power which flows from the barrel of an assault rifle. Thus, the gangsters obviously believe that Putin was “wrong” to describe the presence of armed representatives of the OSCE as a “right idea.” Given that unarmed members of the OSCE mission were fired upon by Russian terrorists a few times already, it looks likely that the organization’s armed guards would need armed protection themselves.
“I have nothing against deploying peacekeeping missions in the Donbas,” first Prosecutor General of Ukraine (1991-93) and Judge of the Constitutional Court (2005-16) Viktor Shyshkin told us, “but the problem is that Ukraine itself has not offered a clear definition of what is happening in the east of our country. If this is an internal conflict (although we know that this is a Russian intervention), why is Russia demanding anything? Should we tell the world that thousands of Russian soldiers who died in Ukraine and military vehicles which were hit on our soil are the proof that Ukraine has been facing Russian aggression, international missions will change their behavior accordingly. Meanwhile, as long as this conflict is labeled as an anti-terrorist operation, every Ukrainian soldier who hit an enemy tank while defending his country risks being accused of banditry himself.”
In fact, to send an armed contingent of the OSCE to the Donbas, the organization requires the unanimous consent of its 57 members. Of course, even if it happens, it will not necessarily mean that this contingent will reach its destination. And Zakharchenko’s words prove it. But the main conclusion to be drawn from the statements that were made recently on this subject is that the world is really tired of the Donbas, and Putin knows it. That is why we see regular gangster attacks that kill Ukrainian soldiers almost daily and serve not only to squeeze our blood, but also to exhaust the patience of the West.
“THE WEST IS NOT PREPARED FOR THE RISKS BEING IMPOSED BY THE KREMLIN TODAY”
Valentyn BADRAK, military expert, director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies:
“Any attempt to put the responsibility on the OSCE is a game that benefits Putin and the Europeans, but not Ukraine. Firstly, the OSCE has demonstrated its inability to be an effective mediator in this situation. Secondly, a military mission of the OSCE is, in fact, hardly able to cope with the conflict settlement task. Both the experience of the OSCE and the organization’s own traditions prevent it. Incidentally, the OSCE’s monitoring mission in the Donbas played a destructive role rather than a positive one. So, I do not believe that the idea to involve the OSCE can resolve the situation in this case. Why is approaching this organization attractive to the Europeans? Because they are ready to ‘talk away’ the problem, to freeze the conflict in this way. Europe will thus actually agree to resolve it in the favor of the Kremlin and knows that compromises it will require from Ukraine will be much larger than expected. Thus, Europe will resume economic cooperation with Russia, and the war being fought in eastern Ukraine will be simply ‘frozen.’ Unfortunately, the West is currently led by weak politicians and has a weak political position in the international arena. The West is not prepared for the risks being imposed by the Kremlin today. Because of this, the West will try to achieve a ‘closure’ on the Ukrainian issue in any way, so as to calmly move to solving its own pressing issues then.
“In addition, any mission’s chief precondition is the silence at the front, the absence of combat actions and bombardments. However, we are so far unable to achieve it because of the Kremlin’s actions. Using the OSCE, Putin will be able to change the game in a supposedly stabilized situation and ‘unfreeze’ the armed conflict at any time. Actually, he desires to have a frozen conflict so as to be able to launch it into a hot phase when the time is right.
“But there is one more thing which we forget, I mean Crimea. Freezing the conflict on terms imposed by Putin and agreed to by the West will actually postpone resolution of the Crimean issue for a very long time, or even indefinitely. For Ukraine, it is absolutely unacceptable.”
“RUSSIA HAS BECOME MORE ACCEPTING OF FOREIGN MISSIONS, AND IT IS WORTH CONSIDERING WHAT CONCESSIONS OUR GOVERNMENT HAS MADE TO GET TO THIS POINT”
Kostiantyn MASHOVETS, military expert:
“Ideally, deployment of an OSCE police mission should stabilize the situation in the Donbas by stopping bombardments and creating conditions for a political settlement of the conflict, that is, holding elections and fulfilling other provisions of the Minsk Agreements. But in practice, this will depend on the nature of the mission and how effective its control of the currently enemy-occupied section of the Russian-Ukrainian border will be.
“I believe that the West will not agree to lift the Russia sanctions until the Kremlin fulfils all the conditions of the Minsk package. It is unlikely to happen immediately after such a mission is deployed. However, we have heard signals that the West is ready to lift the Russia sanctions, and it is clearly disturbing. We should remember that to fulfill the Minsk Agreements, Russia must withdraw its troops from the Donbas. The government of Ukraine insists that the occupation regimes should leave the area together with Russian troops. But I see no particular desire on the part of Russia and bosses of the ‘people’s republics’ to leave these areas. Quite the opposite, they want to legalize their presence. Consequently, holding elections in such circumstances is pointless. These terrorists will never get recognition from the government of Ukraine or the wider world. Meanwhile, Russia will never be able to get our government to negotiate with representatives of the occupation regimes. It should be understood by the West as well. The Ukrainian military and political leadership would fall from power as soon as it is seen negotiating with the gangsters.
“I agree that the OSCE has a lot of flaws, in particular due to the powerful Russian lobby inside the organization. Of course, there is a risk that Russians will serve on the OSCE police mission. If this happens, the government of Ukraine will certainly reconsider its attitude toward this mission. Actually, until recently, Russia did not agree to the presence of any foreign missions in the Donbas. Now we see that Russia has become more accepting of it, and it is worth considering what concessions our government has made to get to this point.”
