From now on, November 9 may well be marked in Russia as a major official red letter day, on a par with May 9, the Soviet “Day of victory over fascist Germany during the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45.” At least, this is how Russia’s media are responding to Donald Trump’s victory. Russians may conveniently celebrate it, starting on November 4, marking the “Day of Popular Unity,” followed by November 7, marking the “Day of the October Revolution of 1917” (when the Bolsheviks carried out their coup d’etat in Petrograd [St. Petersburg, later named Leningrad, and finally receiving its original name under Boris Yeltsin. – Ed.]. Russia’s major official dates in November may well be crowned by the Donald Trump Victory Day, with Russia’s tricolor unfurled from the top of the White House on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, Washington, D.C.
On November 9, Russia-1 Channel broadcast the regular Solovyov Soiree, this time in an atmosphere strongly reminiscent a children’s daycare center celebration. One was reminded of the way a baby starts in life, not knowing what will come next, and unable to realize that each passing day marks a step taken toward the inevitable finale. No use trying to find any rational reasons behind that festive atmosphere on the Russian channel. Those who took part in the talk show, as well as any sober-minded individuals in Russia, realized that the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States boded not well for Mother-Russia.
One thing that could explain this festive atmosphere was the gloating delight reaching in several directions. Vladimir Solovyov started by saying Ukraine was one country that hadn’t slept the night Donald Trump won his victory, and that, from now on, President Poroshenko knew not what he had to do next. Political analyst Sergei Mikheyev added that Ukraine had lost the game, considering Mr. Trump’s statement to the effect that he was prepared to recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Russia-US expert Zlobin countered angrily that Mr. Trump was prepared to discuss, not recognize the fact. To which Solovyov countered, equally angrily, that it made no difference.
No celebration is good enough without a celebrity. Solovyov said the celebrity was Vladimir Zhirinovsky, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, in that he was the only one who had believed in Mr. Trump’s victory. “No one has believed in Donald Trump’s victory; everyone was sure Hillary Clinton would win, no one but Vladimir Zhirinovsky,” Solovyov solemnly proclaimed and said Zhirinovsky was Russia’s Nostradamus and Baba Vanga put together.
Zhirinovsky responded by drinking champagne right there in the TV studio, saying he was the first to have sent congratulations to Mr. Trump, and ending by stating that the American people had taken its destiny in its hands for the first time in its 240-year-old history, that the planet Earth would, from now as one, rotate round the Moscow-Washington axis, that all sanctions imposed on Russia would be lifted.
In actuality, Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s gift of prophesy is explained by the fact that the man has been coming up with hundreds of absolutely crazy forecasts on a daily basis. Some of them were bound to come true, and each time, he would reassert his status as a prophet. On that particular occasion, Zhirinovsky said the United States would “discard their concept of world supremacy and trust us to take care of the world [order]”; whereupon Russia would “build a railroad reaching as far as Bombay”; that “Americans will retreat from Iraq and we will enter it immediately.”
It also transpired that Donald Trump had won, because he had been supported by Vladimir Zhirinovsky. “Twenty million watched my address in English on television. I said the Americans shouldn’t vote for that woman and they listened to me,” he declared, adding, “Why do I like Trump? Because he is like me. We have the same kind of electorate.”
Toward the end of the talk show, Vladimir Zhirinovsky got really excited, lashing out at Israeli expert Yakov Kedmi, yelling, “Now everyone will keep silent with the Russian tsar sitting in the Kremlin! We’ve made every one of you! Russia has made this world, China, Cuba, Israel!” He ended by calling for quitting the bottle and sex. Then, he remained silent until the end of the show.
Getting carried away probably best describes the Russian talk show’s atmosphere, including the moderator. Vladimir Solovyov light-mindedly described what lay in the offing for Ukraine: “There will be a democratic state… that will realize all the gorgeous advantages of Customs Union membership.”
Russia’s political elite appears to be into a game, with zero sum, whereby the worse for one’s partner, the better. They don’t know any more sophisticated games with solidarity and cooperation rules, so they are using a worse-for-the-West-better-for-Russia tactic. By the same token, what causes grief in Ukraine or any of the Baltic states should be cause for festivities in Russia, right then and there.
The fact is that the election of Donald Trump as President is bad for the West in general, and for Ukraine and the Baltics in particular. However, the extent of how bad may turn out to be smaller than expected, considering Mr. Trump’s campaign rhetoric. The man might well act differently.
The fact that his election is bad for Russia is clearly apparent now. Mr. Trump has said that one of his priorities as head of state would be the lifting of restrictions on national oil, shale gas, and other energy resources. Even the experts under Vladimir Solovyov’s able guidance can’t but realize that this would lead to a drop in world oil prices. Even Satanovsky and Mikheyev can assess the resulting damage to Russia’s budget.
Mr. Trump is going to increase military spending, and Vice President-elect Mike Pence, ex-Indiana Governor and Tea Party movement supporter, made an unambiguous statement addressing Russia during a debate vs. Tim Kaine: “We ought to deploy a missile defense shield to the Czech Republic and Poland which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama pulled back on out of not wanting to offend the Russians back in 2009.” That was an altogether different kind of rhetoric compared to the previous one, when the West was insisting that NATO was not aimed against Russia.
Refined neocons and politically correct Democrats have been replaced by what some tend to describe as “ham-fisted rednecks on Capitol Hill.” Vladimir Putin may well discover that Donald Trump is a far more unpleasant conversationalist than Barack Obama was – and than Hillary Clinton would have been. Compared to Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin is like a smalltime criminal compared to an underworld boss. Barack Obama has never led Vladimir Putin to understand that Russia is below par compared to the United States, in economic and military terms. He has never used arm-twisting tactics.
Donald Trump does not know about delicacy and politeness. He has always used raw strength and weight to his best advantage. He isn’t likely to make Russia an exception from the rule; if it gets in his way, he will simply step on it and move on, without turning to take another look.
Donald Trump’s election is bound to alter the world order, most likely making it less stable or predictable. There will be less understanding, empathy, and confidence, with more on the side of instinct and limited individualism. Most likely, there will be a degree of regress in human civilization, something frequently seen in world history. Humankind will survive this, the way it has survived far more serious problems.
Most likely, today’s festive mood of Russia’s Putin regime will be like one’s alcohol-induced euphoria followed by the next morning’s severe hangover.
