From now on, sociologists have their professional holiday, Sociologist Day. It is marked on November 14 in many educational institutions of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and other European countries. We phoned Volodymyr Paniotto, a well-known sociologist, director general of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, to greet and ask him answer a few topical questions.
Mr. Paniotto, what is the attitude to Sociologist Day in your professional milieu?
“We are undoubtedly pleased to have this holiday. Naturally, sociologist greeted one another. The Sociological Association of Ukraine also sent greetings to all its members. But I would not say it is a popular holiday. For example, there were no special conferences on this day.”
There were, naturally, some problems with Korolevska, but how would you rate the performance of sociological science in these elections in general?
“On the contrary, there were no problems with Korolevska. Sociologists forecast the Ukraine Forward party’s rating as 2 percent, but she in fact gained 1.6 percent as a result of the elections. So, as the phrase goes, there are no problems.
“But if I were to rate the work of sociologists in general, I would say it was quite successful in the case of the proportional system. The proof of this is exit polls and preliminary surveys conducted by professional sociological companies. Of course, we forecast a greater percentage for Vitalii Klitschko’s party, but the problem here is not in sociologists but in the fact that we still have an embargo on the publication of sociological survey data. The current term is 10 days, not two weeks, as before, but even this is too long a time. There is no such thing in European countries. If we publish the poll results 11 days before the voting, this means this information was gained the week before – in other words, we gain the latest data three weeks before the elections. Dynamics may have essentially changed over this period of time. Besides, what affected Klitschko’s rating was his irresolute position (reluctance to join the opposition) in the last weeks.”
What about the first-past-the-post system?
“As for surveys in the first-past-the-post constituencies, they proved to be not so successful. There are just not enough sociologists to carry out surveys in such a large number of constituencies. Besides, we should not forget that 30-40 percent of the populace does not know at all their first-past-the-post candidates a week before the elections. People make a decision right at the polling station. This brought about an essential difference between the results of preliminary surveys and those of the elections.”
The result of Freedom was also unexpected.
“I do not know why it was presumed that Freedom was on the parliament entry borderline. We never said this in the last one and a half months. Our surveys showed 7 to 8 percent for this political party. I also wrote several times that any radical party faces such thing as hush-up – therefore, Freedom will win more votes. Besides, it tended to show growth. Incidentally, some of the people who were going to vote for UDAR sided with Fatherland and Freedom in the last minute.”
