Lately, the number of provocations by the Russian Air Force in relation to the Baltic and Scandinavian countries has increased. In this regard, there are concerns about Moscow’s further actions, especially in former Soviet republics. There have been 68 of such incidents in Lithuania this year, and this is the maximum number in more than the past 10 years. Latvia informs about 150 “closing-in incidents,” and Russian aircraft have appeared in Estonia’s airspace 5 times this year, while only 7 such cases were registered over the span of the past 8 years.
The most outrageous fact of violation of Estonia’s sovereignty was the kidnapping of counterintelligence officer Kohver by the Russian FSB on the territory of this Baltic state. It happened near the border checkpoint Luhamaa on September 5, around 9 a.m. After application of force and threatening Kohver with a gun, FSB officers drove him away to Russia.
The Estonian counterintelligence officer is still kept in Russia and there is no intention to return him back. This incident reminds of the case of the Ukrainian pilot Nadia Savchenko, who was abducted from Ukraine and is now facing a trial for some alleged crimes.
The Day asked Karmo Tüür, political analyst at the University of Tartu (Estonia) to comment on the current provocations carried out by Russia, including the kidnapping of the Estonian counterintelligence officer, and explain how this is perceived in the Baltic States and what these states and Ukraine need to do not to become victims of Putin’s regime.
“RUSSIA IS NOW TRYING TO LET ALL ITS NEIGHBORS KNOW WHO THE BOSS IS”
“It is about a security officer working for the department of counterintelligence. According to the rules, he does not work on the territory of other states. Such officers are engaged in counterintelligence as such only, including the issues of contraband, corruption, and large-scale criminal activities. That is, by definition he could not be present in another country, the Russian Federation in particular, it is out of the question. He was abducted in Estonia, and perhaps, the FSB structures stand behind this, who cover up border guards in Russia and are involved in smuggling protection activities. And this very officer was engaged in fighting smuggling. He was detained by the very FSB workers he was fighting against.
“As for the general picture, it fits into a number of rather unpleasant activities round the entire perimeter of Russia’s border. Detention of a Lithuanian fishing boat, far too numerous violations of airspace not only in the Baltic States, but in Finland and Sweden as well. Besides, there were situations related to Kaliningrad. In general, the point is that Russia is now trying to let all its Western neighbors know who the boss is, that it can allow the kind of behavior others can’t. And the main provocative question messaged in all these actions is: so what? So what are you going to do? So what are you going to do next? With all the possible methods Russians are trying to prove to themselves and to the Western world that this Western community, various organizations, the European Union, and NATO are just shallow words. And in reality they cannot do a thing, they are frightened, they are incapable, and so on.”
ON THE LACK OF LEADERSHIP IN THE EU
We would like to hear your assessment of the West’s reaction. For example, Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaite said in an interview to The Washington Post that there is no leadership in the West to oppose Russia. What is your opinion on that?
“As regards the lack of leadership in the West. One of the most common mistakes in expectations pinned on Europe is that we allegedly do not have a strong leader. But it is impossible to have one, since the whole architecture of the European Union and the whole philosophy behind this idea is to not have a single strong leader who would speak for everyone and make decisions alone. So, in this sense, the words that we do not have a leader and we cannot act are true, this is exactly how things are, otherwise we would not be the European Union, we would not be that very Western civilization we are representing.
“As for the reaction itself, a rather slow, as for democratic government structures, preparation for the response can be observed. From the technical point of view, at the moment our border is being enforced and supplied with new equipment, and so on, so that we could apply maximum pressure against Russia for it to stop such actions. It sounds silly, but it is true.”
Do you see any consequences of the implemented sanctions?
“Sanctions were introduced in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, mainly because of Crimea. Such measures in relation to Russia were taken for occupation of territory, not even for what is going on in eastern Ukraine. At any rate, these sanctions provide a rather tangible result. And there are consequences in Russia already. The most tragic part is that the Russian government turned these point sanctions against the people by boycotting Western goods. So, these sanctions provide a reverse effect. And this can be felt in Russia already. This protest wave starts gaining momentum and takes on some strange, odd forms. Anyway, Russia is punished with sanctions not because it detained our counterintelligence officer, but for what it has done in Crimea. Russia, in its turn, is now snapping back, showing the Western countries that imposed sanctions on it that it is also capable of something, something non-systemic, of such actions to which Western countries cannot respond, because they are a part of the system.”
“IN ORDER FOR RUSSIA TO GIVE CRIMEA BACK, IT MUST STOP BEING AN AUTOCRATIC IMPERIAL RUSSIA”
How can Russia’s behavior be influenced? Several years ago the European Parliament condemned Nazism and Stalinism. Aren’t the ongoing events in Russia a result of its uncured Stalinism and the fact that it did not develop in the democratic direction?
“In order for Russia to be able to recognize and compare Stalinism to Nazism, it should stop being the country it is today. This is tightly connected to the following problem. Ukraine cannot get Crimea back, it is Russia that must give it back. In order for Russia to give Crimea back, it should become something different, it should stop being an autocratic imperial Russia it is today. It should represent something different. Obviously, now they are doing their best to evade turning the empire into a normal Western state. Such ideas are repelled by the majority of Russia’s population. Also, one of the problems is that the key figures of Russia’s political life, people who make crucial decisions, are 50 years and older, and they are coming back to their comfort zone now: their ideal is a strong authoritarian country, where everything is more or less subject to the rules of the underworld, and these rules fit them more than law. They strive to bring Russia back to the state it was in when they were growing up, which they find the most convenient, and in which they can act freely. Therefore, there is no way present-day Russia with its current leaders would admit its crimes and compare Stalin’s regime to the fascist one.”
What can the Baltic States and Ukraine do in this case? Which strategy or tactic should they choose to oppose Russia, which is trying to bring them back into subordination?
“Neither the Baltic States, nor Ukraine can affect Russia in a way that would change it. Russia must be changed by itself, its own people must reach it, they must change their worldview and idea of Russia, as we call it. What can we do? Something we can do for ourselves: learn to defend ourselves better. And not only by means of political slogans. No matter how unfortunate it is, we must literally learn to fight again. You have almost learned over there, so we will have to do it too.”
“THE COUNTRIES OF THE REGION, WHICH MOSCOW REGARDS AS ITS OWN, SHOULD SEND A VERY CLEAR MESSAGE TO MOSCOW THAT THEY ARE ABOVE ITS HEAD”
So, you see only one path: to build an army, build up arms not to let this red plague, which is brought by Putin this time, spread further?
“Red plague? This is from a different era. We need to come back to origins. Russia is striving to go back to its comfort zone now, to a strong authoritarian state with imperial regional ambitions. And now the countries of the region, which Moscow regards as its own, should send a very clear message to Moscow that they are above its head. That if it tries to bring them back under its control, it will suffer. This is the only thing that must be done. We cannot change the government in the Kremlin. It is not our problem, Russians must do it themselves. And we can do something for ourselves.”
Don’t the US and the EU have to play a certain role here too, to demonstrate firmness in support of our countries?
“Both ways. It is identical to when hostilities began in eastern Ukraine, no assistance could really be expected. Until you learn to fight for yourself, nobody is going to do that for you. The same applies to other countries: above all, we have to be strong enough ourselves, and therefore to be confident that firstly, we have will to resist all kinds of attempts to subdue us. Secondly, we must have a real opportunity to resist such attempts, and only then, at the third stage may we hope that our friends and allies will help us. This is beyond any doubt. But first we must do it for ourselves.”
