Savchenko’s sentencing has made the issue of her return to Ukraine an urgent matter again. President Petro Poroshenko expressly stated his willingness to exchange her for Russian soldiers who are being tried in Kyiv. Ukrainian diplomatic department said that the exchange would take place by the summer. This haste is somewhat hard to understand, and such matters are probably intended for domestic consumption.
Injustice and clear political motivation behind Savchenko’s sentence is no reason to succumb to emotions.
The entire situation around the Ukrainian officer has two important aspects that are sometimes disconnected and often contradict each other.
The first of them is the humanitarian aspect. The Russian authorities have turned Savchenko and other detained citizens of Ukraine into hostages and assets to blackmail the Ukrainian government with. Moreover, the Kremlin was deliberately showing disregard for basic legal norms, even the Russian law itself, which it saw as a demonstration of their strength and, accordingly, impotence of the Ukrainian authorities, as well as, by the way, of the international community, primarily Europeans and Americans.
The second aspect is political. In principle, the Kremlin has absolutely no use for Savchenko. Her case was no propaganda coup. On the contrary, it brought a lot of trouble, since Russian propagandists were repeatedly exposed as peddlers of overt and hastily assembled lies.
On the other hand, the more the world speaks and acts to protect Savchenko, the higher her hostage value becomes to Vladimir Putin and his gang. If all these people are so eager in their demands to see her released and exchanged, it means that quite a lot can be traded for her.
Despite the importance of this humanitarian issue and the need for a prompt release, it will not play any role at the moment or in the near future. The Kremlin does not care about it at all, and we should take this fact for granted. They will not release Savchenko for free.
We should focus on the political aspect. The government of Ukraine should be careful and very cautious, because many intentional pitfalls await us on this road.
First. The Kremlin’s strategic objective is its return to the G7 (G8) and the recognition of Russia’s geopolitical interests by the West. This includes not only neighboring nations, but also Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, especially the Balkans, the Middle East, and possibly North Africa. Russia wants to have a free hand in its zone of influence, including the freedom to use military force.
Tactically, they aim for the recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and the lifting of sanctions, combined with the West ruling out Moldova, Ukraine, or Georgia’s admission to NATO under any circumstances.
Second. Russia would agree to negotiations on the fate of Savchenko and other issues relating to Ukraine only with the US. The Kremlin is absolutely unwilling to see an equal partner in Ukraine, and it will do everything to keep Ukrainian matters discussed exclusively by Russia and the US. This applies to Savchenko’s fate as well.
Third. It is clear that Savchenko is not the stumbling block, but rather just a part of the game or a trade asset. Incidentally, she is not even that important in that role for the Kremlin. However, we also see an attempt to protect the private interests of some senior Russian officials. It has led to an attempt to exchange Savchenko for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout or pilots caught transporting drugs, all of them now detained in the US. In other words, the Kremlin is trying to repeat the scenario which saw Soviet dissident Vladimir Bukovsky exchanged for General Secretary of the Communist Party of Chile Luis Corvalan. On that occasion, a short satirical poem by Vadim Delaunay made rounds in the USSR:
They swapped a hooligan
for Luis Corvalan.
Where can you find such a bastard
to swap for Brezhnev?
To quote Cheka chief’s Latsis statement in the cult Soviet series The Adjutant of His Excellency, “If so, Shchukin [chief of the White Guards’ counter intelligence service. – Author] is repeating himself.” Similarly, the Kremlin is repeating itself.
In fact, Russia’s offer to exchange Savchenko via the US is not technical in nature, but rather a piece of farsighted politics, which is very negative for Ukraine.
Of course, everyone wants to get Savchenko released as soon as possible. However, there are a number of important circumstances that force Ukraine to reject Russia’s terms.
FIRST. Any exchange means Ukraine agreeing that Savchenko and other our citizens were properly convicted and got legally justified sentences. This absolutely should not be done. By doing so, we strengthen the Kremlin’s hand, despite having best intentions. No decisions of Russian courts may be recognized by Ukraine, as they are all politically motivated. So, these were kangaroo courts. Savchenko should be released without any conditions. Ukraine should force Russia to do it.
SECOND. Russian officers who are on trial in Kyiv were detained on Ukrainian soil in arms. Their crime is obvious, and the court must establish the details needed for determining punishment. The recent statements mean that we agree to exchange the guilty for the innocent. This should not be done as a matter of principle, based on the legal and diplomatic criteria.
THIRD. No talks about Savchenko and other our citizens should be conducted through third parties, and no exchange for prisoners held by third parties should be effected. The negotiations, involving only Ukraine and Russia, should be centered on unconditional release of Ukrainian citizens in exchange for extraditing Russians who committed crimes on Ukrainian territory to serve their sentences in Russia. No pardons and other legal tricks of Russian justice should be accepted. Innocent people are released, not convicted.
By trying to negotiate with the US on Savchenko, Russia wants to show Ukraine’s lack of independence. This is yet another way to humiliate the Ukrainian state.
There is no place for emotions and often simple human feelings in politics. It is based on the public interest, prestige matters, and even cynicism. We can be indignant about this, but it is an objective reality.
Of course, every day in a Russian prison is very hard on Savchenko. However, she is a soldier and the song famously says that “a soldier is always a soldier” – on the battlefield as well as in captivity. Savchenko understands it perfectly and rejects collusion with the enemy.
Does the Ukrainian government understand it, too? Something makes us think that is not completely the case.
