It looks like the coming winter will not be easy for our country. That’s due not just to the unfortunate and painful for Ukraine attempts of Russia to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement and bring Kyiv back into its orbit, but also due to the fact that the Ukrainian government does not look confident and united in this difficult situation, which, apparently, is well used by Russia.
In this regard, the more than sharp statement made by the Vice Prime Minister Yurii Boiko that in response to formal attitude of the Russian Gazprom Ukraine can take asymmetric countermeasures seems rather significant. “We always covered their back during peak periods, when it was important to keep the transit of Russian gas to Europe. Thanks to our support Gazprom was able to fulfill its contractual obligations,” said the vice prime minister. “Thus, if Russian colleagues continue to apply this formal approach, we reserve the right to use the purchase contract in the same manner, then the entire responsibility for the gas transit to Europe from Russian Gazprom will be assigned only to them. We will not be covering their back any more.”
In fact, from a formal point of view nobody can have claim against Ukraine, as well as against Gazprom, which requires the payment of the overdue debt, since property is sacred, even more so on the international scale. But just as Gazporm is free to use its gas, Ukraine is free to use its underground storage facilities at their own discretion and can find a convincing excuse to forbid Ostchem Company “lend their shoulder” to Gazprom. What this means and what informal conclusions Europe can make in case of implementation of this statement? It seems the answer to this question is pretty simple…
The Swiss-Ukrainian “chemists” bought, though not without the assistance from the country’s leadership, five billion cubic meter of Russian gas at the price of 260 US dollars per a thousand cubic meters. No one has seen a relevant contract, but it is clear that its conditions provide for support of the Russian gas transit. And it is no coincidence that the Minister of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine Eduard Stavytsky said that the Ostchem contract contains a lot of unknown aspects, while the Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev confidently asserted that Russia expects no problems with the transit of gas to Europe through the territory of Ukraine.
It looks like Medvedev has seen the contracts in question, while Stavytsky only heard about them. Attentive news reader, perhaps, has noticed that recently in the Ukrainian energy sector, as well as the entire economic sphere, sort of dual power has developed. While the Ministry of Revenue and Duties successfully collects taxes and even exceeds the rates, the Finance Ministry, due to the lack of budget revenues, is unable to provide financing for the expenditure items. While the population pays 96 percent of the cost of the used gas, Naftohaz is constantly increasing its debt and, in fact, is already bankrupt. And if Minister Stavytsky says that the chairman of Naftohaz Yevhen Bakulin holds talks in Moscow, this statement has not received any confirmation. His predictions about paying Ukraine’s gas debt also do not come true: neither today-tomorrow, nor on Monday or any other day… Who runs the industry then?
You would think that Boiko and Stavytsky took on the roles of the evil and the good police officers and try in such a way to resist the pressure of Russia. And, indeed, while Stavytsky is more oriented to the West and goes there more often, Boiko and Bakulin are regular guests in Moscow.
Whose side in this quiet intra-government war Mykola Azarov is on? Judging by the fact that he described the debt of Naftohaz as an issue of economic entities and, thus, tried to disengage from it, the prime minister wants to create the appearance of his neutrality. Meanwhile, it looks like the First Vice Prime Minister Serhii Arbuzov is absolutely not interested in the gas subject, even though the country’s finances is, in principle, his sphere of responsibility.
But it not only that. Ukraine, since the time of Tymoshenko rule, lost the opportunity of reorganizing Naftohaz and establishing a fair, from the point of view of the market economy, system of gas payments, where the population does not live at the expense of industry. However, it should be noted that some new information from this side also appears, namely the unofficial reports about the fact that the President Viktor Yanukovych has finally agreed to the demand of the IMF to raise the price for gas for the population. But then also an unofficial rebuttal appeared in response to this. Is it that the government is not in a hurry to save Naftohaz? One of the other possible options is to declare it a default and immediately start the reorganization, which has been sought by Europe for so long. But it would seem to be an extremely bold decision for our government, where the young reformers are in the minority now.
