The phrase in the headline is a current mantra for those who write about the surrounding world. Meanwhile, the liberal world order installed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 on the basis of the US hegemony began to burst at the seams during the global financial crisis in 2008. In 2014 the Kremlin struck a new crushing blow at the world structure by violating the agreements on the inviolability of borders in Europe and on territorial integrity of Ukraine, which the key Western states had also guaranteed. Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US president was a third blow against the world order. And only now has the world’s expert community and elite begun to moan and lament: “It’s a disaster!” The most alarming thing in this situation is not the world order’s downfall itself but the fact that the latter occurred unexpectedly and shockingly. It means that those who are supposed to think and foresee have lost the scent. If it is a crisis in international relations, it is, as well as the crisis of the most advanced civilization, an irreversible and the only way of renewal. The world has not yet invented any other option, and it is important to get ready for a crisis in good time and seek ways for restoring the world order on a new basis. What is more, this should be done in a way that will cause no dramatic shocks, such as wars and worldwide confrontations. There is so far no guarantee that the latter can be avoided because we have all proved to be unprepared for the fact that liberalism in its current form can exhaust itself.
Paradoxically, it is not Russia and other members of the Anti-Liberal International that are burying the liberal world order. The bitter irony is that it is the global financial oligarchy that has dealt a severe blow at it because this oligarchy began to control decision-making inside the leading Western states, particularly in the US. The one who struck the second blow was US President Obama who, thinking that America had overstrained itself, carrying out the mission of the world’s policeman and guarantor of rights (which is true!), decided to bring the US back into its own shell so it could recover its breath. But it turned out that nobody was prepared for this – especially Europe which had long been parasitizing its leading partner. So is it strange that the Anti-Liberal International lost no time in taking advantage of the pause and filling the vacuum?
And what’s next now? Indeed, Trump has announced that he is ready and willing to further Obama’s cause and have America drop its commitments in the world as part of his mission, promising to ruin the structure that emerged after 1991. But, attention! This does not mean America is retiring. Not at all! Trump and his team of outright nationalists, which have suddenly found themselves in the White House, are making it clear that the US will pursue its interests, or what Trump will consider US interests, by boosting its military power (tremble, gentlemen!) and by ignoring the rules of the game. In plain English, Trump’s America is going to support the intention of the Triad in the person of Russia, China, and Iran to play without obeying the rules. This promise comes from not even the world of Hobbes who envisioned certain constraints. It will be sociopolitical Darwinism – if, of course, Trump manages to achieve his dream.
Of course, one must be fully aware of the dangers that moving towards “multi-polarity” represents. This boils down to the existence of several galaxies that will try to form states that will strive to become new centers of force. But, thank God, the current murky stream of world history still contains some restrictive factors, albeit not always well-organized and often spontaneous. As previous world crises, such as the 1970s crisis that gave a stimulus to a postindustrial society and globalization, showed, any risks and threats cause an open society to immediately search for counteraction and a recipe for response. And the more dangerous the threats are, the more desperately the response is sought. But for a crisis, any political mechanism would be disintegrating and degrading for decades. Today, too, the shock from Russia’s aggressiveness, the unexpected military boost of China, and the transformation of Iran into a key regional player (incidentally, with the connivance of the US) has stirred up the brains of a complacent Western society and injected a powerful dose of adrenaline into the “Western body.” And Angela Merkel, who looked downcast recently, says almost with a challenge, obviously turning to Trump: “We will take our destiny into our own hands and will be defending our rights and freedoms.” This is almost a manifest of Europe from the mouth of the only mighty leader who says that there are still forces in Europe that will try to defend their ideas without relying on the US.
But it is also too early to send America to the political graveyard. The US Republicans, now recovering from a shock, and the recently-paralyzed Democrats, are beginning to draw up a resolution which will not allow Trump to shape the foreign policy without the consent of Congress. Besides, his conflict with such very powerful forces as special services, the media, showbiz, and the female population may well lay the groundwork for an impeachment. In any case, the words “impeachment” and “high treason” are already burning on Trump’s forehead.
So the current twilight is dangerous and alarming. But twilight has always been a herald of dawn, while moans about the apocalypse have always demonstrated not only a paralysis of thought, but also the surrender of positions.
Lilia Shevtsova is a Russian political scientist and journalist
