The diplomatic battles focused on the alternative gas pipeline to carry Russian natural gas to Western Europe, bypassing Ukraine, are still underway and Poland is invariably in the limelight as the key final decision-maker. Three years ago, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov tried to talk the Polish side into supporting the Kremlin’s option. Anatoly Zlenko, his Ukrainian counterpart, completed his visit to Warsaw on December 5. He seemed to have familiarized the Polish public with Kyiv’s official stand, formed at last.
Mr. Zlenko stated in Warsaw, after meeting with Polish Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, that he saw no reason to not build a new gas pipeline. According to PAP, Ukraine treats the diversification of energy supplies to the European Union with understanding and is prepared to increase gas supplies to these countries. However, the implementation of such projects must primarily supply economic rather than political needs. When modernizing the Ukrainian pipeline, gas transport from Russia to Western Europe via Ukraine could be increased from 120 billion to 170 billion cubic meters. In fact, this would cost less than the alternative pipeline project, securing larger deliveries compared to the new project’s design capacity, as the proposed bypass would have to traverse Poland and Slovakia. “We will cooperate with Poland along these lines,” Mr. Zlenko declared, “and I am sure that we will reach an understanding,” adding that he was pleased to hear the Polish President’s proposal, which was close to the Ukrainian stand and could only gratify Ukraine.
Anatoly Zlenko related the Ukrainian proposal to solve the problem by setting up an international consortium based on Russian-Western natural gas transport concessions, or by introducing another acceptable mechanism of Ukrainian pipeline management, reports Interfax Ukraine. This could turn into a joint project involving the EU countries, Russia, Ukraine, and Poland. In Mr. Zlenko’s words, Ukraine considers that it can become a full-fledged participant in the new EU energy strategy, taking a fitting place in the all-European energy supply system.
This time, however, Warsaw did not in any way intimate its intention to resist the Russian gas pipeline option, even though by and large the Polish stand in the matter remains the same: Ukrainian interests must be taken into consideration.
In fact, Polish Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Bartoszewski declared after meeting with Anatoly Zlenko that Poland also wants to abide by exclusively economic rather than political considerations, and that the Polish side proposed to convene a conference involving all the parties concerned: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, and the European Union...
Simultaneously, Poland strives to be on the safe side; PAP reports that Mr. Bartoszewski said after meeting with Anatoly Zlenko: “We do not believe that any outcome of the situation will have a negative effect on our economic, political, and human relations.”
Many issues remain open. To begin with, Moscow is apparently determined to stick to its previous stand, as evidenced by Russian Vice Premier Viktor Khristenko’s statement at the Minsk summit, to the effect that the construction of a new gas pipeline serves the interest of European energy security, with not one word about Ukraine and its interests. Moscow does not want to deny itself the role of the leading player in the game with the attendant right to the final say. Previously, Mr. Khristenko said that Russia was interested in just getting the controlling interest in the Ukrainian gas transport network and that it was not interested in participating as a foreign investor. In other words, the aim of the political game, pressure on partners, and bluffing about the gas pipeline may well be Gazprom’s intention to gain control over the Ukrainian pipelines. One thing is now more or less clear: Ukraine’s desire to have concessions with Russian participation. It would be naive to expect Warsaw to refuse Moscow’s attractive offer of some $1 billion for gas transit just to maintain its so-called strategic partnership [with Ukraine], even if Russian gas costs increase. Poland is sure to get a certain edge over Russia if an agreement on a substantial rise in Polish gas procurements in Norway (almost 50% of all gas consumed) is signed at the start of the next year. Finally, no one knows next year’s alignment of political forces in Europe and what steps the EU (currently vaguely acting to “pacify” Russia) will have to take.
Perhaps the next meeting between Leonid Kuchma and Aleksander Kwasniewski, planned before the end of the year, will clarify the situation, so one will be able to discuss where Kyiv and Warsaw stands.
