If propagandist threats and broadcasted orders of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to attack the United States and South Korea are to be taken seriously, it might seem that the war between the North and the South will start within a few hours. Informational tension is also intensified by the hasty and not completely correct translations of the Korean Central News Agency’s texts. A message was already received that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea declared a war with its neighbor. It turned out to be a false alarm. As Russian information agencies state, the original text of the statement from Pyongyang reads only that North Korea will act “according to the military time laws” if it is provoked, which can turn into a “full-scale” and even “nuclear” war.
Two other events also poured oil on the fire of the information war, mutual accusations, and threats.
Firstly, the United States and South Korea signed a common action plan. A representative of South Korean defense ministry stated that “this will allow the two states to give a united answer to the local provocations of the North. In this case, the South will go first and the United States will provide support.”
Secondly, Pyongyang went insane when two American B-2 Spirit bombers made a long flight with a following return from the US Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. The bombers dropped inert munitions (bombs filled with concrete) on the Jikdo training ground. Heavy strategic bomber B-2 is designed to break through the air defense and deliver regular or nuclear weapon. This aircraft is created with the use of “stealth” technology.
In response, leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un signed an order about directing strategic missiles at objects in the US and South Korea. He threatened to fire at not only American bases in the Pacific (the famous Pearl Harbor and the island of Guam), but also the Pacific coast up to Alaska. Pyongyang also announced that the last phone line which was used by the military of the two countries in order to coordinate the passage of South Korean workers across the border to the Kaesong Industrial Park was turned off. This symbol of inter-Korean cooperation is substantial help for North Korean economy. The Associated Press reports that there were about 750 South Koreans on the territory of North Korea when the phone line was turned off.
But the curious thing is that no one got scared. At the moment, the order is mere words on paper, since the data from satellites shows there is no activity on the North Korean military objects. And there are other factors, which directly state that North Korea is not going to start a war.
Even a superficial comparison of the economic and military potential of the two Koreas shows the futility of any military action for Pyongyang.
When comparing the size of the two armies (570,000 people for North Korea and 560,000 for South), it should be kept in mind that mobilization capabilities of South Korea are much higher. About 50 million people live there, while only about 24 million people live in North Korea. Let us add military training to this. During their service, North Korean soldiers also have to take care of the cattle, sow and harvest the crops, collect wood for vehicles with gas generator units, since the country goes through a fuel crisis, gather firewood for heating barracks, and perform a lot of other chores. Besides, the army supplies a number of enterprises with workforce. For example, soldiers are sent to sew military uniforms. Therefore, there is almost no time for the actual military training.
The North Korean army possesses a large number of weapons, but most of them are archaic and inferior in quality to the ones that belong to their enemy.
It would be enough to say that the North Korean army still uses Soviet aircrafts MiG-17 and MiG-19, which are not equipped with missiles. Besides, MiG-17 is subsonic. In the Soviet Union, they started withdrawing Il-28 from service in the 1950s. The level of preparation of North Korean pilots is extremely low. Firstly, because of the fuel problems. The North Korean army simply does not have enough fuel to raise all the aircrafts fit for combat into the air. Secondly, because of the low resource of old Soviet and especially Chinese aircrafts. North Korean aviation activity during the aggravation of the situation in 2010 resulted in accidents, chaos, and pilots’ low skills.
Despite the militarization, North Korean military budget is 25 times smaller than that of South Korea. And one more thing. In the North Korean army, a soldier’s daily ration contains 700 grams of peeled grain, or sometimes rice. Meat is served on very rare occasions. In South Korea, soldiers are fed in a much better way. During the last 50 or 60 years, the average height of a South Korean increased by 7 centimeters, and in North Korea it decreased by 5 centimeters. This is the result of the difference in nutrition, the variety of products, and caloric value of food. And it is known that a hungry soldier is not a good fighter.
In 1950, supported by Stalin and Mao Zedong, Kim Il-sung started a war with the southern neighbor. North Koreans managed to fight off Americans and South Koreans only thanks to the support of Soviet pilots and Chinese troops. Nowadays, such support is even out of the question. Russia should not even be discussed in this situation, since it is not in the proper state for supporting a real war near its border.
And Beijing seems to lose the last bits of patience. It seriously warned the North Korean leadership to restrain from conducting missile and nuclear tests. Pyongyang did not listen, thus dealing a hard blow to the Chinese leaders’ image. The latter will not forgive this and will remind of it when the appropriate moment comes. And of course, support of any military activity is out of the question. On the contrary, as a South Korean newspaper writes, referring to the South Korean Presidential Administration, in order to bring the rowdy satellite back to its senses, China plans to cease supplies of oil and fuel and strengthen the inspections regime on the border between China and North Korea.
The economic potential of North and South Koreas should not even be compared. Pyongyang will not stand even for a short period of time without external support. Saddam Hussein had much more potential and a stronger army, but he lasted only a few days.
So, how will the situation unfold? Head of the Center for Strategic Research of China at the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia Aleksei Maslov states that “in fact, nobody wants to be at war today. The US just shows its readiness to use conventional weapons against North Korea. There is information that China continues negotiations in attempt to calm it.”
The expert connects the aggravation of the situation with the fact that Kim Jong-un must show firmness, since his position is very weak at the moment. And it seems that he does not see any way to strengthen it, except for whipping up war fever.
The situation in South Korea is no better. Even though its new president Park Geun-hye promised to have the “trusting relations” with Pyongyang, she cannot implement this in real life. Konstantin Asmolov, leading researcher of the Korean Study Center at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, thinks that “her hands are tied.” Since her nominees have corruption problems, “key positions are still occupied by supporters of the former president Lee Myung-bak, who had the most harsh attitude towards North Korea. They will benefit if Pyongyang commits a provocation, because then President Park will have to continue the former foreign policy.”
According to observers and experts, there will be no large-scale war in the Korean Peninsula. Armed clashes, firing at distant islands, and other actions that fall under the definition of provocations might take place though. And this is everything that the North Korean regime will dare do. It might show its teeth from time to time, but everyone knows that this tiger is made of paper.
COMMENTARY
THIS IS A THREAT NOT ONLY TO THE REGIONAL SECURITY
Serhii KOSHOVY, head of the Sector for New Centers of Growth, the National Institute for Strategic Studies:
“I am sure that there will be wise people who will not let this conflict develop further. There are several reasons for that to happen. After all, in given circumstances, no one is interested in such trend of events.
“Concerning Pyongyang’s militant statements. They are primarily related to the self-identification of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. That is, Koreans have already reached the level where they want to be seen more, and not only in the light of them threatening someone, but in the sense that they are a strong state that has nuclear weapons, unfortunately. So, these statements are rather an appeal for attention, an attempt to keep the media focused on their country.
“Speaking about the reaction of the West: its leaders’ reproaches are too critical. This is a huge threat not only to the regional security, this might be a more global issue. Perhaps, that is why the whole Western world is radical in this matter. However, I believe that there is no final solution for this problem at the moment.
“What position should Kyiv occupy in this conflict? Considering the fact that it is rather remote, but on the other hand, it applies to all subjects of international law, and Ukraine also depends on it. Further aggravation of the situation in the Korean Peninsula might affect Ukraine as well.”
Interviewed by Ihor SAMOKYSH, The Day
