Last Sunday, an expected change of the head of government went very calmly in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accepted the resignation of the former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and thanked him for his work. In early May, Davutoglu had announced that he would resign as a party leader and the head of government.
Immediately after that, Erdogan entrusted Binali Yildirim, former Minister of Transport, Maritime, and Communication, with a task to form a new government. A few hours earlier, at the congress of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) Yildirim was elected the new chairman of this political force, which paved him the way for the premiership. An extraordinary congress of the party was convened to take the decision. Yildirim is believed to be Erdogan’s protege; in his speech at the party congress, he supported the changes to the constitution in order to strengthen presidential power. Before the vote in his favor, Binali Yildirim said that the European Union had to put an end to the “confusion” regarding Ankara’s application for EU membership, as well as the migrants’ issue.
Davutoglu refused to stand for the party presidency. He and President Erdogan have recently disagreed on the ways to settle the Kurdish problem and the detention of journalists who criticized the government. In addition, he opposed the plans of the head of state for Turkey’s transition from parliamentary republic into presidential. Meanwhile Davutoglu has repeatedly asserted that he keeps fraternal relations with Erdogan.
Ihor SEMYVOLOS, executive director of the Center for Middle East Studies:
“Binali Yildirim was one of the favorites for the post of prime minister – he is absolutely loyal to Erdogan. Yildirim had become a politician thanks to Erdogan, he has no objections in regard to the reform that would increase the president’s power.
“For his part, Erdogan has remained a key figure despite the fact that the current constitution grants him less power and political weight than to the prime minister. But we know that Erdogan plays the key role as the president. Davutoglu played the second fiddle, everyone knew that. And then there was a conflict between the head of state and the government, so it had to be resolved – any internal conflict could lead to a split in the AKP Party and to the weakening of its position. And this is also an important component that influenced Erdogan’s decision.
“It is unlikely that we will see anything new in Ankara’s policy towards the EU, as well as in the issue of refugees. Erdogan determined this policy and he will keep doing so. Only some nuances, which introduced discord to the party structure, will disappear.
“Of course, the recent steps in Turkey can be characterized as authoritarian tendencies. It is apparent that Erdogan continues on his way towards the concentration of power.”
What conclusions should Ukraine make according to these developments in Turkey?
“For us, Turkey is now an important ally against Russia. We must do everything to make our relationship as much institutionalized as possible. They are moving in this direction anyway. Bad personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan just give us a chance to cooperate with the latter. We would like to have other partners, but there are no other partners. Therefore, we must work with the partner that God has given us.
“Regarding the specific projects and agreements on military-technical cooperation that have been made recently between Kyiv and Ankara: I think Ukrainian-Turkish alliance is the best alternative one can imagine at present. And it is easier to deal with Erdogan because he takes little time between words and deeds.”
