On March 27, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman received his colleagues from Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. On the initiative of Ukraine, Kyiv hosted a summit of the GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development. Symbolically, the international organization headquartered in the Ukrainian capital marks its 20th anniversary this year. During this time, the organization went through various phases, with the intensity of cooperation varying depending on the political situation in individual member countries as well as the activity of the Kremlin in the international arena, including that directed towards Russia’s neighbors. From the very beginning, GUAM developed as a tool to protect the members’ common interests against Russia’s aggressive policies. At the moment, what Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Moldova have in common are conflicts which are inspired and supported by the Kremlin: Crimea and the Donbas, Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Transnistria. Of course, another common interest is the development of economic ties.
“The revival of GUAM has been talked about for a year, and the role of the engine of this process has been assigned precisely to Ukraine,” communication manager and analyst at the Institute of World Policy Daria Haidai commented for The Day. “The members have made it clear that the agenda will now be formed only around economic and energy issues. The latest meeting being a cabinet-level one is another confirmation of that. Ukraine is interested, above all, in establishing a free trade area, the relevant agreement having been signed back in 2002, and more efficient use of transit corridors for the transport of goods and energy. The prime ministerial meeting was initially scheduled for past November. This significant delay seems to be linked to the parliamentary election in Georgia, and then to the presidential election in Moldova.”
So, the summit of GUAM resulted in the four governments signing the Protocol on Approval of the Guidelines for Establishment and Activities of the Working Body to Coordinate the Activities of the Parties to the GUAM Free Trade Agreement of July 20, 2002 and the Protocol between the Customs Administrations of GUAM Nations on Mutual Recognition of Some Results of National Customs Procedures for Goods and Vehicles Moving across GUAM Nations’ Borders. The signing ceremony was held in the presence of Prime Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Hroisman, Prime Minister of Georgia Giorgi Kvirikashvili, Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova Pavel Filip, and Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ismet Dursun oglu Abasov.
“Importantly, we signed today a number of documents that will allow us to fully implement a free trade area between our countries already in 2017. This will aid the development of our national economies and deepen our cooperation. These documents are a bold step towards improving our economic cooperation. I also believe the customs protocol to be a good step which will ensure cooperation and mutual recognition for customs procedures of all our countries. This will improve and accelerate our collaborative efforts,” stressed Hroisman.
Despite optimism expressed by the Ukrainian prime minister, experts are less sanguine in their assessments.
“Since GUAM’s emergence, this structure has never offered any clear initiative,” commented Moldovan political analyst, program director of the Chisinau Institute for Public Policy Oazu Nantoi. “This has let many experts to believe that GUAM is a stillborn child. The organization includes countries which indeed have common interests. And the chief of them, that is, territorial integrity, cannot be ignored. Should the leaders of these countries find political will, GUAM has a chance to revive itself and protect its interests more effectively. The first thing which GUAM should implement is a coordinated position of its members in various international structures. Secondly, it should consistently draw the world’s attention to human rights abuses by Russian and pro-Russian regimes in conflict zones. We need a quality experience exchange in order to solve these conflicts. For example, if you take the so-called Transnistrian conflict, it has long become a series of business projects and cannot be solved because there is no political will to solve it. We also need to develop projects promoting alternative energy sources and energy-saving technologies.”
“Where did this interest in GUAM originate?” Haidai asked. “Both Georgia and Moldova have repeatedly made clear to Ukraine their desire to intensify cooperation between the countries which have signed association agreements with the EU. Of course, Azerbaijan, which has chosen a different foreign and domestic policy direction, is an odd man out in the political triangle of Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, but its presence is key to the implementation of economic and energy projects which the three countries see as important. The success of the initiative will depend on the willingness of member countries to invest time and resources in the activities of GUAM, which is highly doubtful given past experience. The basis for the association should be created by specific economic and infrastructure projects, otherwise it will be just another declaration of ‘friendship’ that can do more harm than good.”
“The idea of member countries engaging in joint efforts is very promising and viable, but, unfortunately, it remains just that – an idea – at this point,” chairman of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine Andrii Novak commented for The Day. “To implement it, one needs to put economy in the center of this plan. Apart from economy, security is an obvious unifying factor as well. We have a common aggressive and large neighbor, whose behavior has directly or indirectly infringed the sovereignty and national security of all members of GUAM. As for the initiatives, I think that the main driver in this respect should be the regional leader, that is, Ukraine. But we should take into account that each member country has different political forces in power. For example, Moldova elected a pro-Russian president recently. Georgia has issues of its own. Ukraine and Azerbaijan are most closely aligned at the moment, for instance by their opposition to Russia as an aggressor nation. Judging by its rhetoric, the government of Ukraine, too, is apparently aware of the need to establish a proper belt of resistance to the Kremlin, but it all should be evaluated based on real actions. If Ukraine doesn’t take on the role of the initiator of GUAM activities, this structure will not work.”
