Days before the New Year the Ukrainians’ mood improved significantly. However, such a picture is traditional, with the results of opinion polls always more optimistic at this time of the year than at other times. This trend can be easily explained: we see each new year as a fresh start, and this raises our expectations and inspires hopes for better things. Moreover, paydays usually come at this time, and presents are given. But such a mood is situational and passes soon. Speaking of stable sociopsychological components, unfortunately, a feeling of dissatisfaction prevails among Ukrainians. Opinion polls suggest that over 50% of Ukrainians are dissatisfied with their economic and social status. This is primarily due to the fact that for many years life in Ukraine got progressively worse. In fact, throughout the nineties the country’s GDP declined. The economic situation worsened, living standards plummeted, along with material welfare, which the people associate with their social status. A lasting feeling of dissatisfaction took shape.
Yet today it would be more correct to evaluate Ukraine’s society not in terms of satisfaction or its absence, but rather in terms of hopes and disillusionment. Thus, it is noteworthy that in the past three or four years people have begun to view the future with more hope, which is not surprising, with the economic situation improving and the world becoming more interested in Ukraine and its successes.
However, one cannot go by absolute indicators alone. One must also take into account the trends, which are quite optimistic in Ukraine. While in 1999 most of those polled said that their social status declined, in 2000 the situation began to change. While in 1999 55% of those polled said that their social status had worsened, in 2003 this figure dropped to 20-25%. Of course, few said that their social status improved: while in 1999 only 6% of those polled answered in the affirmative, in 2003 this figure climbed to 12%. Yet the number of those with a stable social status has increased significantly.
All these positive trends, much like the hopes, are still quite faint. If Ukraine stays on its course of development, then in seven to ten years the vast majority of people will feel satisfied and higher on the social ladder, as is the case in the developed European countries. Further, the indicators mentioned are a major criterion showing how developed a society is. After all, everything the state is doing must be aimed at improving the welfare of the citizens of the country in question.
I do not expect any major changes next year. If nothing extreme happens — some post-Soviet republics have already shown how events can unfold in the post-Soviet space — the upward trend will continue. We cannot count on a very rapid recovery either. While between 1991 and 1999 Ukraine’s GDP dropped almost twofold, then we must return it to the level where we started off in order to make the feeling of satisfaction prevail in society. Considering the current growth rate this will happen in ten years. Incidentally, most Ukrainians share this view. Opinion polls suggest that people primarily expect significant improvement ten to twelve years from now, while they do not expect any improvement in the immediate future.
As for general social stability, it is worth noting that another major factor influenced how the people feel: the past decade was generally peaceful and calm in Ukraine. This has made people confident that they live in a country where they need not fear for their lives. And, finally, one more thing: in the late nineties we overcame a major barrier in that we adapted to the new conditions. While in the beginning most people felt alienated in this society and as a result received everything that was happening in a standoffish way, in the late nineties the situation changed: for the vast majority of Ukrainians the new society became not so much an alien environment of elementary physical survival as a work environment and a sphere of personal self-realization. It is not ruled out that precisely this factor underlies our recent economic successes.
