Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has announced that Brussels will approve the Ukraine-European Union Action Plan on May 18. The plan, if fulfilled, is supposed to result in the establishment of a Ukraine-EU free trade area and the beginning of talks over signing a European-type agreement on Ukraine’s associated membership in the EU. As traditional practice has it, no details have been revealed about the ongoing active negotiations on the Action Plan. The only information is that the parties have agreed in principle on a compromise that the document will be valid for two to three years. As to their specific commitments under the agreement, the consensus still seems to be far off. The European Commission, which is negotiating with Ukraine the signing of the Action Plan (EU Commissioner Chris Patten told The Day it could be signed well before the elections in Ukraine) has just no mandate to discuss the possibility of Ukraine’s association with, let alone prospective entry into, the EU.
Yet, Oleksandr Chaly, First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, is full of optimism. In his words, the EU is already aware that as soon as the ten-year Agreement on Partnership and Cooperation between Ukraine and the EU, signed in 1994 and brought into force in 1998, expires, it should be replaced with an entirely different legally binding document. He believes that even now there is an understanding between both sides (Ukraine and the EU) that they will not extend the existing agreement. As to the new budget the EU is working on, the adoption of it may be preceded with establishment of new relations with Ukraine. The point is there is no consensus in the EU about the essence of these new relations. While Ukraine is and will be supported by the new EU members — Poland, Lithuania, and Hungary — and some of the old ones, such as Austria and Britain, most of the other EU member states show pessimism over the Ukraine’s immediate prospects. Nobody hides any longer that this is connected not in the least with the development of the political situation in Ukraine, especially the presidential elections, although official EU structures and representatives of the EU member states keep reiterating that all they care about is a democratic, fair, and open election. According to deputy minister Chaly, it would be realistic to start negotiating a new EU agreement (other than the Action Plan) as soon as in 2006. It does not matter whether the document’s title will include the word association. What really matters is Ukraine’s aspiration to follow the way of its neighbors.
On this road, Ukraine must solve several fundamental problems which are still the subject of a tough dialogue. It is impossible to establish an area of free trade with the EU unless Ukraine is granted market economy status and joins the World Trade Organization. In spite of Prime Minister Yanukovych’s optimistic statements, there are no visible signs of progress in this issue. There are more than one reason for this. For example, the latest session of Verkhovna Rada’s Committee for European Integration noted that one of the obstacles on this road is the current export duty, thirty euros per ton, on scrap metal defended by the pro-governmental parliamentary majority. Another factor is the likely introduction of an automobile import duty (the law passed has not yet come into force).
According to Borys Tarasiuk, chairman of the parliamentary Committee for European Integration, the cabinet has submitted to Verkhovna Rada eleven bills whose provisions run counter to European legislative norms and WTO requirements. There are other problems as well. Mr. Chaly defines as “extremely difficult” the ongoing dialog on liberalizing the Ukraine-EU visa regime, including the problem of transferring Ukraine from the “black” into the “white” list of the Schengen zone. Ukraine is still waiting for an answer to the unilateral lifting of visa requirements for bearers of diplomatic and special- purpose passports.
Meanwhile, the Expanded Europe-New Neighborhood concept, the basis of the EU’s current dialog with Ukraine, provides for extending the four fundamental EU freedoms — cross-border movement of people, goods, capitals, and services — to the “neighbors.” Incidentally, the EU has already begun talks with Russia on this subject.
Diplomats from the current and prospective EU members states still fail to understand how Ukraine’s pro-European declarations fit in with its intention to form the Single Economic Space with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus, despite government assurances that this “space” will be just a complement to the Europe-bound course. Most analysts and diplomats privately admit that Ukraine has already lost any chance to qualitatively improve its relations with the EU this year due to the domestic situation, especially on the eve of the elections, and the expansion-related problems of the EU itself.
As the parliamentary committee’s session confirmed, short-term losses due to EU enlargement are still on the agenda: the Cabinet estimates these at $250-350 million. The EU refuses to discuss this subject, and it is up to the Ukrainians themselves how to go out of this situation.
INCIDENTALLY
The European Parliament is calling upon the Ukrainian government to conduct transparent and democratic presidential elections in October this year, respect the freedom of speech, take continuous and effective measures to prevent and punish interference in the work of free and independent mass media. This is the gist of the resolution on the political situation in Ukraine voted for by 59 European Parliament members. The document notes, among other things, that the Expanded Europe-New Neighborhood concept recognizes the importance of Ukraine as a country that maintains close historical, cultural, and economic ties with the EU member states. The resolution points out that this document is based on the Action Plan to be drafted by the European Commission in the spring of 2004 and to include proposals aimed at supporting the political and institutional reforms which will allow Ukraine to be gradually joining EU policies and programs. The European Parliament called upon the Council of Europe and the European Commission to closely watch the situation in Ukraine, monitor the October presidential elections, and support the OSCE’s integrative efforts. This resolution will be handed to the Council of Europe, the European Commission, the CE secretary-general, the OSCE, the Ukrainian government and parliament.
