Only a decade ago weather changes mostly affected farmers, but the situation has been different for the past several years. We are now witness to dramatic weather fluctuations. The weather is behaving so unpredictably that practically everyone—people planning vacations, farmers, people with dachas, those suffering from cardiac diseases or hypertension—closely follows forecasts for the next several days and for longer periods.
Today even schoolchildren know that global warming is to blame for frequent temperature oscillations, torrential rains, hurricanes, and floods across the world. Ecologists agree that the anthropogenic factor is the cause of the greenhouse effect and global warming, putting the blame for all environmental problems on higher emissions into the atmosphere. They cite as their recent victory the draft Copenhagen Climate Agreement signed on June 10 in Bonn by the representatives of such noted ecological organizations as Greenpeace, David Suzuki Foundation, WWF, Germanwatch, National Ecological Center of Ukraine, etc. Copies of this document will be forwarded to 192 countries. Ecologists expect it to serve as a reference point for the governments of the countries negotiating a post-Kyoto climate agreement and show how the divergences between poor and rich countries can be overcome.
Climatologists are not as categorical as ecologists. They largely blame natural factors for the unstable weather — in other words, regularities that are at play on the Earth, on the Sun, and in outer space in general. However, most people want to know not only about the global climate, but also what kind of weather they will have in the next few days or months.
Dr. Vazira MARTAZYNOVA, Ph.D. (Physics and Mathematics), head of the Department for Climate Research and Long-Term Forecasting at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Research Institute (aka Hydrometcenter), has told The Day about what kind of weather can be expect in Ukraine this summer and how it will affect the harvest yields.
Dr. Martazynova, why is it so hot in Ukraine and Europe? The temperature has been down somewhat the last couple of days, but they say this won’t last long. The Hydrometcenter registered the highest temperature ever recorded on those particular days.
“This temperature is normal for June; our summer has to be hot. When the summer is cold, this is abnormal because our climate is such that the temperature is up in June and July. True, this year it is a bit higher than the average, but this is still our normal climate.”
What kind of weather can we expect this summer?
“Something like what we have now. [The original article was published by Den’ on June 13. — Ed.] But let me tell you first that every process is markedly unstable these days. It tends to change very quickly. You saw how abruptly the weather changed in June, didn’t you? Two cold and windy days followed by a three-day heat wave. In other words, a return to the cold spans, as we had early this month, is very typical for this June. The kind of process we witnessed at the start of the month will come again toward the end of June and will last for several days.
“July will be even hotter than June. In fact, July has become hotter in Ukraine, compared to the previous century. It will be very hot between August 5 and 15, maybe even until August 20. In other words, the end of the summer will be real summer. Some time in late August, maybe on August 20, the fall will begin and the weather will noticeably worsen: it will be cold with winds and rain.”
Will there be a drought this summer?
“Our previous studies show that if the weather is good — I mean sunny and rainy — until mid—July, then even if a drought comes, it won’t cause the crops too much damage because by then the plants will have all they need. Considering the weather we have experienced and what we expect for June–July, I believe that Ukraine will have a good crop this year.”
Last year there was a heavy flood in western Ukraine. Had you warned anyone against it? Will there be calamities, such as floods, in Ukraine this year?
“Yes, we forecast floods last year. Actually, we advise local weather bureaus on what to expect. We can now provide a detailed forecast for June. As you know, this is the time of heavy rains in the Carpathian Mountains, where precipitation is always abundant. It is very important for all precipitation not to happen on one day, for this would mean big trouble. I mean in June. So far no one has asked for a July forecast, so this is all the information I have.”
Ecologists say that, in conjunction with global warming, the maximum admissible increase in the planet’s average temperature is two degrees. What will follow after that will be an irreversible process. What do climatologists think? What’s the increase in Ukraine’s temperature in view of global warming?
“In Ukraine, every month has its temperature. Mainly winter temperatures have registered an increase. Thus, the temperature in February is some four degrees higher, compared to previous years. That of July is also up, but September has become markedly colder. I think that this coming September will be more like the end of October and the beginning of November.”
Ecologists refer to man-caused factors as the main reason behind global warming and the greenhouse effect. How much do you think man and nature are to blame?
“I can tell you here and now that the anthropogenic effect changes the weather only in certain regions, not everywhere. Human activity does not affect the entire planet. In other words, we are polluting the atmosphere, but this doesn’t mean that we’ll suffer all the consequences. What happened in Chornobyl is a very good example. The discharges into the atmosphere were in Ukraine, but Belarus suffered in the first place and then radiation hit Scandinavia.”
What is the reason for the warming in Ukraine? Is it our (or our neighbors’) activity, or maybe natural factors are to blame?
“In Ukraine it is mostly natural factors. Actually, there are numereous natural factors, including solar activity, cosmic radiation, and so on.”
What can we expect from Mother Nature? How will the climate change? Will such changes be the same all over the world?
“Everything I have mentioned will last for about a cycle, i.e., some 30 years. And I mean here, in Ukraine. As for the planet, every region has its own weather processes and none is like another. They cannot be similar. If we have a span of dry weather, this doesn’t mean that the weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere is the same. Weather processes produce the centers of atmospheric activity; they are stable and have clearly defined geographical boundaries (like the Islamic cyclone, Siberian maximum in winter, etc.). They change and create weather conditions that are either very extreme or stable. Everything depends on their behavior.”
