The United States soon will see the start of the Republican and Democratic parties’ primary elections in order to determine the candidates for the presidential elections, which are to be held on November 8. Among the Republican nominations, the leading position is occupied by Donald Trump, a billionaire notorious for his populism and aggressiveness. The Democrats see the competition for the party’s nomination between Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the former enjoying more than 10 percent advantage in New Hampshire. The intrigue of the struggle for the White House chair was further intensified by the recent poll, according to which 20 percent of Democrats would vote for Trump.
The Day asked American experts to comment on this latest poll, as well as to assess the new Russian military doctrine and review the public expectations before the last national address of President Obama, whose term expires on January 20 next year.
COMMENTARIES
Steven PIFER, senior fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.:
“President Putin’s decree on a national security strategy is not much of a surprise. It reflects language and concerns that we have seen in other recent Russian security and military documents, particularly the focus on the United States and NATO as the main threat to Russian security. That strikes many in the West as odd, given the risks of international terrorism, the threat to Russia posed by radical Islam and its potential spread in the northern Caucasus and Central Asia, and the challenge posed by a rising China, which increasingly encroaches on Russian interests in Central Asia. The Kremlin narrative on questions such as US intentions and NATO enlargement is badly flawed, but it appears to have been accepted by many in the Russian security elite. It almost seems as if there were a nostalgic wish to return to the Cold War.
“Russia is not the Soviet Union, and the Warsaw Pact is long gone, with most of its members having joined NATO – not because they were forced into doing so, but because they saw membership in the alliance as in their interests, both in security terms and in terms of becoming full members of Europe. Moscow is plainly unhappy with the post-Cold War European security order, and its illegal seizure of Crimea and aggression in the Donbas reflect that. But the Kremlin may find – and already may be finding – that its ability to push back is constrained by a weak domestic economy, the low price of oil and Western economic sanctions. While West-Russian relations are in a difficult period, it is not a return to the Cold War.”
John HERBST, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, member of the Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C.:
“Trump’s popularity continues to surprise many experienced political operatives. One reason for that popularity is that Trump says ‘politically incorrect’ things that some people think, but are afraid to say. A good number of such people are Democrats. So the poll’s results are not a real surprise. Sanders has regularly shown strength with the leftwing of the Democratic Party. Usually the left enjoys more influence in the primaries than the general election. Despite these developments, Ms. Clinton is well placed to win the Democratic nomination. Her problem is the continuing FBI investigation into her use of a private email to send and receive official and often enough sensitive (classified) information when she was Secretary of State. That could derail her nomination.
“President Obama will use his last SOTU to highlight his major domestic achievements – unemployment down to 5 percent according to recent data – foreign policy initiatives – the nuclear deal with Iran and the agreement on climate change. He will also likely focus on gun control, and lay out a vision that, he hopes will help the Democrats to win the White House this year.”
Dr. Matthew ROJANSKY, Director, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C.:
“Support for Sanders instead of Clinton is explained by the frustration of many Americans with ‘dynasties’ in American politics. You can see very low support for Jeb Bush for a similar reason. Also, Sanders and Trump are both perceived to be from ‘outside’ normal politics, and thus more honest or authentic than the traditional political class which is represented by Clinton or Bush. However, the support of voters now, during the primary season, may not translate to votes on election day. Republicans are especially likely to return to ‘party discipline’ once they understand who is the preferred nominee of the establishment – right now that is not clear.
“The new Russian Security Doctrine reflects the Kremlin’s perception of Russia being besieged on all sides by the United States and its proxies, which purportedly seek to isolate, subvert, and cause internal political and social upheaval to bring about regime change in other countries. In turn, Putin’s Russia is ready to defy and push back on all fronts – in Syria, in Ukraine, in the Arctic – and by all means available.
“I have seen this text. I am not at all surprised by it. Russians have had a ‘siege’ mentality towards the rest of the world for a very long time. One could argue it is centuries old, and could even argue it is very often justified, in light of Russia’s history. Many Russian public monuments, holidays and national identity-forming mythologies are based on the story of Russia being invaded, suffering, and the Russian people’s ultimate victory over the invader. The fact that the Russian government now seeks to connect that deep psychological foundation with the current conflict between Russia and the West is also not surprising. Nationalism has been at the core of Putin’s political appeal since his return to the Kremlin in 2012. The more the Russia-Ukraine conflict looks to Russians like a conflict between ‘Western/European identity’ versus ‘Russian identity,’ the more they will support their leadership, even if they themselves hate the corruption and technological backwardness of Russia’s Soviet legacy and Eurasian trajectory.
“Obama will probably try to make this speech [final State of the Union address. – Ed.] sound like it is more forward-looking than backward-looking, but that is hard to do in the final year of an 8 year term. This is the President’s final opportunity to define his legacy for the American people, while he still has an opportunity to deliver on promises he has not fulfilled. In domestic policy, he will very likely trumpet his efforts on healthcare, which he fears that Republicans in the Congress are trying to dismantle. He will make the argument that Obamacare has delivered on many of its promises, and that where it has failed, it is because Republicans tried to weaken it. He will also probably talk about the epidemic of gun violence in America, and he will trumpet his latest executive actions to make it harder for dangerous people to buy dangerous weapons. I also expect he will give a review of the economic growth the US has experienced since the recovery from the last recession, basically all 7 years that Obama has been in office. He will try to associate his presidency with the memory of this growth, and not with the new downturn, which appears to be starting, and which may be well underway by the time he leaves office in January 2017.
“On foreign policy, he will talk about ISIS, and the challenge of what he calls ‘violent extremism.’ I think he will mention Islam, but he will probably cite core American values of tolerance, openness and pluralism to reject the voices of Donald Trump and others who want to discriminate against Muslims. He will probably ask the American people for patience in a long fight against ISIS and related radicals, and he will try to show that he has a strategy in the Middle East and that it is working. In this relation, he will emphasize how his diplomatic efforts, including the Iran nuclear agreement and the opening with Cuba, have helped bring more countries together on the side of peace and international order than was possible before. In other words, he will try to salvage the legacy of his campaign promises in 2008 about ‘engagement’ with the wider world: Iran, Cuba, Russia, the Muslim world as a whole. He has done this, but the dominant judgment of the US political class seems to be that engagement failed. He will probably reject that argument, by citing examples of success, and promising the same success against the challenges ahead. I do not expect he will talk a lot about Ukraine, but I think he will mention the strong US support for Ukraine’s reforms and for settlement of the Donbas conflict. He may chastise Putin for his aggression in Ukraine, but he will be careful on this point because he needs to work with Putin on Syria, and he also still hopes for some implementation of Minsk agreements in 2016. In any case, there will be no big announcement on sanctions or the US-Russia relationship. If he mentions NATO, which has a summit coming this summer, it will be to trumpet the new posture of ‘reassurance’ to NATO allies in the Baltics and Black Sea region.
“Overall, I do not expect this speech to be a ‘victory lap,’ but more like a summation of his accomplishments, a gentle finger-wagging criticism of his opponents, both at home and abroad, and a call for support from his allies in the year ahead as he tries to advance a few remaining domestic and foreign policy challenges.”
