Ukrainian diplomats – and President Petro Poroshenko in the first place – keep stressing the solidarity of Europe and the West in supporting Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s aggression. However, this solidarity and joint stand have started running cracks, as evidenced by the G20 Summit in Antalya. Traditionally committed to economic issues, during this G20 summit the Syrian issue, Paris attacks, and the West’s response to ISIS have taken center stage. Rather unexpectedly, President Vladimir Putin appeared to be calling the tune during talks in various formats to settle the Syrian conflict, considering that the man was a social outcast at the summit in Australia past year and left Brisbane in a hurry.
One could watch an alarming phenomenon unfold in Antalya, namely the preparedness of the EU leadership to reach a compromise with the Russian leader despite his blatant violations of international rules, annexation of Crimea and aggression against Ukraine in the Donbas. Whereas previously French President Francois Hollande tried to figure out Russia’s stand in resolving the Ukraine issue, on Monday British Prime Minister David Cameron held talks with Vladimir Putin for several hours and said later he was prepared to arrive at a compromise with the Kremlin ruler for the sake of settling the Syrian conflict.
Ukraine can hardly feel any better knowing that only the US and Canadian leaders urged Putin to stop Russian military intervention in Ukraine. For some reason no European leaders broached the subject. They mostly discussed Russia’s involvement in the struggle against ISIS. There is the alarming possibility of Russia providing assistance in this struggle in return for getting Ukraine back under the Kremlin’s influence. Arkady Moshes, director of the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood and Russia research program, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, believes that Europe hasn’t made the move, not yet; that the Ukraine-for-Syria trade-off is a big thing and Russia could pull it off only after having something bigger to show than it has done to date. He also notes that Europe has begun looking for allies, anywhere, that Washington’s cool attitude to the possibility of ground operations and increased involvement in the Middle East will only spur Europeans to come to terms with Russia.
Steven PIFER, senior fellow with Brookings, does not rule out the possibility of expanded military cooperation between Washington and Moscow.
Dr. Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, Ph.D. (Politics, Conflict Management), Taras Shevchenko National University, Kyiv, believes that there is a rift in Europe, as evidenced by the manner in which the Russian president was received in Antalya: “America takes a restrained stand in revising its policy toward Russia, whereas Europe is actually split. The Paris attacks have swung the pendulum in the direction of Russia. Because of their weakness and blinkered liberal attitude, Europeans reject the very idea of resisting Russia. Facing no resistance, Russia is reaching its goals, including the splitting of Europe, revising the results of the Cold War, ruining the postwar world order and restructuring it on Russia’s terms, namelyYalta-2,” he told The Day.
He went on to say that Europeans are frantically looking for ways to ward off the refugee onslaught and cope with the consequences of the Syrian conflict; they see a solution to the problem in resuming the dialog and strategic partnership with Russia. They believe that Russia is the only one to help them deal with regional and global threats. And this considering that Russia is the key generator of such threats. This is Europe’s bad mistake that will have horrific consequences.
Dr. Perepelytsia pointed out that Russia has actually captured Europe’s information space and is now shaping public opinion in European countries: “This is a very dangerous trend. After this summit the Normandy Format will be on Russia’s side; it will be used to indirectly pressure Ukraine into complying with the Minsk agreements, amending the Constitution, and legitimizing the DNR and LNR.”
Putin has won a tactical victory in Antalya by opening the door to a dialog in a format in which Ukraine will serve as “small change.” This is a very serious and unpleasant signal for Ukraine and the Ukrainian diplomats must brace themselves for it, concluded Dr. Perepelytsia.
