The first half of the year of Our Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic activities has ended in a massive diplomatic offensive aimed at France and held at the highest political level; also, in the ceremony of opening the long-suffering memorial at the Lychakivske Cemetery in Lviv, and NATO Secretary General’s visit to Ukraine. The first six months of the new Ukrainian government are proof that the international community regards this government differently, compared to the previous one, which is definitely an asset; also that the foreign political situation is getting back to normal. Any breakthroughs or great accomplishments aren’t on the agenda, and nor are any likely to be expected in the predictable future. Premier Tymoshenko’s and then President Yushchenko’s visits to Paris show, on the one hand, that nothing is impossible, that the Ukrainian leaders are made welcome and listened to there. On the other hand, there is a great deal of work to be done. Viktor Yushchenko said in Paris there would be a new kind of relationships between Ukraine and France. He is probably right. Moving in the French direction is important primarily because of the kind of ice Paris is cutting in Europe as well as elsewhere in the world. Leaving Ukrainian-French relations at the previous level would be intolerable, to say the least.
Toward the end of the first half of the year Paris was visited by NSDC Secretary Petro Poroshenko, Premier Yulia Tymoshenko, and President Viktor Yushchenko. It did look like a massive [diplomatic] offensive, especially if one takes a closer look at what Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko had to say in an interview with the French press. Both Ukrainian leaders felt confident that Ukraine means Europe. They may have succeeded, even if partially, in convincing themselves, as well as Old Europe’s conservative public, that it is really so. France has just voted down the European Constitution. France has a new government and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarcozy is seen as starting a quick and spectacular career. The domestic political situation in France is complicated. The European Union’s immediate future looks uncertain. All told, this situation doesn’t look as a promising beginning for an essential change in Ukrainian-French relationships. On the other hand, what came to pass was probably the best and only opportunity. Ukraine is still in vogue politically, although critical voices are already heard (often such criticism proves quite valid); also, some of the new Ukrainian government’s acts and decisions prove so controversial they are hard to understand by Western analysts and politicians. Ukraine still stands a chance of presenting its new attractive international image, and there are other countries interested in this image.
In Paris, Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko appeared to be doing their utmost to convince their interlocutors, that Ukraine has vast opportunities, and that the two of them were members of a solid team. The French visit resulted in a considerable press following, something that hasn’t happened previously. Such interest in the Ukrainian leadership has never been displayed by French television or any of the leading periodicals. This is an advance rather than success. It would be success only if all the accords achieved by Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko in Paris were implemented. And this involves road construction and cooperation in energy, aircraft engineering, and space exploration. Cooperation with French companies involved in the Airbus Consortium would be especially interesting (considering that the said companies torpedoed the AN-70 project); add here Gaz de France getting interested in the notorious gas consortium; an opportunity to cooperate in the oil domain (Odesa-Brody pipeline). Premier Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko echoed each other trying to enlist French consultants and advisors in carrying out reforms and adjusting Ukrainian laws to the French acquis communautaire. President Yushchenko declared that a Ukrainian-French energy forum will take place in September, adding that President Jacques Chirac said France will fully support Ukraine in its aspired WTO membership and market economy status. Mr. Yushchenko said that France is prepared to consider entry visa concessions for certain categories of Ukrainian nationals. These are the first positive shifts. French capital is taking a closer look at Ukraine (the dairy company President and cement-making Lafarge are the only two French companies doing effective business in Ukraine today). A conservative attitude can only be overcome by concrete deeds. On the one hand, Paris has always declared that it will never act without allowing for Moscow’s interests (which don’t include any rapprochement between Ukraine, EU, and NATO). On the other hand, the time seems to have come to revise some political fundamentals previously regarded as unchangeable.
France’s role in the European Union will remain decisive come what may, and the same is true of Germany and perhaps Great Britain. At one time France denied Ukraine the opportunity to cooperate within the so-called Weimar Triangle (e.g., France, Germany, and Poland). At present, France may be the first to offer Ukraine a helping hand in traveling the winding road, as traveled ten years ago by countries in Central and Eastern Europe. NATO can’t pass a single resolution unless approved by the French ambassador, meaning that normal [Ukrainian-French] relations and an objective assessment of the situation are imperative.
Apparently no headway will be made without frequent contacts between the heads of state, politicians, and businesspeople. Therefore, the top-level visit to France is the first move in Ukraine’s European game. It appears to have been well timed and made, considering the notorious French skeptical attitude. Also, against the background of the Orange Revolution and attendant favorable attitude to Ukraine and its people, Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko accomplished something none of their predecessors had. They were heard and France took an interest in Ukraine. President Jacques Chirac may visit Ukraine before the end of the year.
Ukraine may well be expected to demonstrate as much diplomatic activity elsewhere, as persistency is known to be eventually rewarded. There must be a greater degree of clarity about what is happening in this country. The first thing our potential ally would want to see in Ukraine is a clear-cut and understandable strategy of development.
