The Day published on January 19 the first part of an interview with the German political journalist and businessman Fritz EHRILCH titled “Russia’s war against Ukraine has several fronts – there is not only an eastern, but also a western front.” He explained in it why Germany underestimates the “Russian threat.” In the second part, Mr. Ehrlich focuses on what Berlin expects from Germany’s OSCE presidency, as far as Donbas conflict settlement is concerned, and on why the German foreign minister insists on elections in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine and how Germany can help our country carry out reforms as soon as possible.
“RUSSIA WILL ONLY CARRY OUT THE MINSK 2 AGREEMENTS UNDER RELENTLESS PRESSURE IN ALL SPHERES”
What hopes is Germany pinning on its OSCE presidency and do you believe that Russia will carry out the Minsk agreements?
“I can only express my personal opinion on this. In spite of all scandals about blind OSCE observers, the cronyism of Serbian or Russian representatives and terrorists in Donbas, and the fact that terrorists restrict their freedom of movement, there is only a small number of other organizations capable of monitoring at least in a certain measure and thus influencing the observance of conditions. Besides, Russian propaganda has succeeded in Ukrainian sources of information being looked upon in the West as ‘partisan’ and generally untrustworthy. There are very few, if any, German journalists in Ukraine, and many write their articles, unfortunately, in their Moscow offices – sometimes with a hint of Russia’s attitude to the events. But, on the whole, I must say that German journalists very often hit the bull’s eye and do very high-quality and honest work. But still they are at a distance, and you can’t possibly dig deep ‘at arm’s length.’ For example, very few know to what extent Russian special services have penetrated OSCE and that almost all the Russian representatives gather secret intelligence. But, thank God, there are also representatives of other countries, so things are not so bad with this organization. I would personally prefer monitoring the Donbas situation by non-Russian blue helmets.
“Russia does not want to observe the Minsk agreements. I am not a historian, but, as far as I know, it would be the first time in history, including that of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, that Russia abandoned the occupied territories. But ‘do not want’ does not mean ‘will not.’ Yet we should not hope for sudden kindness or penitence. Russia will only carry out the Minsk 2 agreements under relentless pressure in all spheres. And you must think decisively in advance. The economy is Russia’s ‘Achilles heel.’ It is very weak, backward, and, what is more, has no prospects. The paralyzed Russian government is doing very little to pull the country out of this backwardness and dependence on selling mineral resources. It is a wide field, and the West could press much harder. But there are also countless political ways of pressure: for example, one can attack at the UN level and call into question Russia’s permanent membership at the Security Council. Pressure can also be exerted inside Russia in order to speed up centrifugal trends, for example, by supporting the opposition and democratic forces. You can also make the Ukrainian system look more attractive by carrying out certain reforms in management and in the distribution of incomes and taxes in districts and cities.”
“STEINMEIER’S STATEMENTS CREATE AN IMPRESSION THAT A SPEEDY AND SHOWY DIPLOMATIC SUCCESS CONTRARY TO THE INTERESTS OF DONBAS PEOPLE IS MORE IMPORTANT TO HIM”
Do you think it is right that Germany, particularly Steinmeier, is insisting on holding elections in the Donbas before the Russian troops and armaments are withdrawn and Ukraine regains control over the border?
“Unfortunately, our foreign ministry is not always guided by the principles I share. For example, can these elections be called ‘free’ if the territory is still full of Russian terrorists who will at best force the people who openly come out for Ukraine to dig trenches and then go away from the area, leaving their property behind for good? At worst, these people disappear forever. The Internet is rife with selfies and videos – these terrorists no longer hide their armed presence on the territory of a foreign country. Still unsolved remains the problem of how and where Donbas refugees can vote (they are about a million, and they fear for their life) because Russian intelligence officers repress everybody who takes a pro-Ukrainian stand on the occupied territory. Here is the case of Maria Varfolomeyeva, a Luhansk journalist. She was taken into custody in January 2015, denied the right to have a lawyer and court defense, and imprisoned for 15 years for photographing and filming the life of people in Luhansk. Now, a year on, no one knows anything about her, for there is no access to her, she is forbidden to be visited or to make phone calls. Maria’s grandmother, with whom she shared an apartment in Luhansk, allegedly hanged herself the next day after the arrest. The claims that Maria was a gun-layer are very ludicrous and far from reality because there had been no artillery fire for a long time and the Ukrainian army was very far from that place at the time. Knowing the Russian methods of ‘shaping’ public opinion, I guarantee that all the pro-Ukrainian voters in the Donbas will be accused of drug addiction, murders, robbery, hooliganism, and violence in order to discredit them. As long as the Russian military and special services stay on your territory, any elections or referendum is bound to result in the success of pro-Russian positions. Besides, it is just unrealistic to found a pro-Ukrainian party on the occupied territory, and no pro-Ukrainian candidate could spell out their program. Even if a show-off rally were organized, everybody would be afraid to attend it. I can also remember a placard at the so-called ‘referendum’ in Luhansk – I wrote a small article, ‘Russia’s strategic goal is to destroy the European Union,’ about this. The placard read: ‘Come to the elections. You’ll feel at home.’ This amply shows what the so-called elections are like.
“As I don’t think that our foreign minister is not in the picture about what conditions must be fulfilled to call any elections ‘free,’ ‘direct,’ and ‘by secret ballot’ and don’t think that our Kyiv embassy has not informed him clearly and honestly about an apocalyptic situation on the Russian-occupied territory, Steinmeier’s statements create an impression that a speedy and showy diplomatic success contrary to the interests of Donbas people is more important to him than a free and democratic development of Ukraine within its sovereign borders of 2013.”
You may have read an article by three former US ambassadors to Ukraine, who called on both the US and Europe to invest in Ukraine. Can you see the desire of Europe to invest in Ukraine so that it becomes a successful state?
“This desire had always existed, and it increased after the Maidan, when Ukraine had unique prospects. Ukraine could count on hundreds of billions of dollars and euros of free investment capital, an unheard-of rapid economic upsurge, and modernization of the whole country. Investors were at the ready. Unfortunately, Russian special services also knew this. They triggered this conflict and began a more or less hidden war against Ukraine, which is now an open wound in your societal body. Your enemies analyzed the situation and knew that this would repel any investors. Capital is like a shy doe. But Russia miscalculated. There will be investments. It is in the interests of the West that Ukraine develops successfully.”
“I AM CONVINCED THAT THE UKRAINIAN ARMY SHOULD HAVE DECISIVELY REPULSED THE RUSSIAN TROOPS ON THE VERY FIRST DAY OF THE OCCUPATION OF CRIMEA”
What do you think about the supply of Western defensive weapons to Ukraine so that it could resist further attacks of Russian troops and separatists against Ukraine?
“Weapons are needed, and you will get some. I’ve been calling for this since the first day of the aggression. Incidentally, I am convinced that the Ukrainian army should have decisively repulsed the Russian troops on the very first day of the occupation of Crimea. It is a constitutional duty, not only the right, of any sovereign state.
“There are various reasons why the West is so far slow to supply weapons – one of them is Russia’s information war against us. Germany adheres to an ironclad principle that armaments and any equipment that can be used for military purposes must not be exported to military conflict zones unless the country in question is a NATO member. This is in sharp contrast to Russia which does not care a fig about restrictions – it willingly kindles conflicts all over the world in order to sell heavy military hardware, its only more or less competitive product. Germany could only supply the equipment as an exception, but this requires parliamentary permission. As Russia unfurled a mass-scale information war on the first day of the occupation of Crimea and misinformed the Western, especially the German, public by the principle ‘whoever owns Germany owns Europe,’ it was impossible to gain the vast majority of votes. I have already said that many of my friends tried to gain in some way access to the information that Russian troops were in action. Yet none of Ukraine’s ministries supported us, and we had to search, find, translate, and publish on our own. But our resources are limited, although, in my view, we have very successfully resisted the ruble in social networking sites and could hold the flags of Ukraine and Germany high and with dignity.”
“IT DEPENDS FIRST OF ALL ON YOU IN WHAT WAY AND TO WHAT EXTENT EUROPE AND GERMANY CAN ASSIST REFORMS IN UKRAINE”
What do you think of reforms in Ukraine, do you see any changes, what do you think Europe and Germany can do to speed up reforms in Ukraine?
“I can see the process, but there still is a long way to go. I know how difficult it is to break this old Muscovite system of domination and slavery based on corruption and violence. Whenever my Ukrainian friends are dissatisfied with the pace of democratization and corruption control, I say to them: ‘It also took more than a couple of years to destroy the Italian mafia.’
“But the main thing in this matter is the chosen path. You have chosen the right path – by contrast with Russia, which is retreating to a dark past. It depends first of all on you in what way and to what extent Europe and Germany can assist reforms in Ukraine – how soon you will manage to essentially bring down the level of corruption, improve the political system, break the monopolistic structures, and prepare the economy for entering the EU. The European Union has an immense experience of reformation in Eastern European countries. Officials, politicians, and the populace are very much ready to assist in all spheres if the Ukrainian side guarantees that this assistance will not be misused. Speak frankly about your problems and actively seek contact with Western non-governmental organizations that favor democracy, the EU, and NATO, and you will find true friends there.”
