Vadym KARASIOV, director, Institute for Global Strategies:
All things considered, Russia has overcome its depression and entered a phase in its history which is actively expanding. It is very important to analyze the challenges Russia is facing Ukraine with. At first, from the early till the mid-1990s, Ukrainian-Russian relations experienced a romantic period, followed by an oligarchic one, when contacts were basically at the level of financial-industrial groups, and then there was a pragmatic phase. Now we have to reckon with Russia entering a strategic or project-making period; here the “single economic space” could be considered as one of its first fruits. It is important for Russia not only to create that single economic area, but also to become an important and necessary center of Eastern Europe, replacing the unstable post-Soviet space of the 1990s.
These plans, of course, include formation of an intermediate security belt between Russia and the expanding Europe, including post-Soviet countries, such as Ukraine, Belarus, and the republics in the Caucasus. Ukraine, of course, plays an important role in the construction of a Great Europe. The Russian Federation’s positioning itself as Russia in Eurasia, rather than a Eurasian country, expanding the sphere of its influence beyond the administrative borders, is a challenge to the newly formed neighboring countries. In this sense, Ukraine is faced with the problem of its being contained within the post-Soviet space by Russia, within the limits of Great Russia, on the one hand; on the other hand, it is the problem of Ukraine being kept within the European space. Ukraine is on the crossing of two big-time strategies. In other words, there is a struggle for Ukraine and it will continue and acquire new forms.
In the context of Ukraine before the presidential elections and Russia after the presidential campaign, the Russian leadership is faced with several problems. First, what is to be done about the Ukrainian national bourgeoisie, which is not sure how it can benefit from cooperation with Russian business groups, considering that capitalism in Russia is getting increasingly controlled by the state. The second problem is that of making the right kind of bets. So far it is anyone’s guess who to stake on, which of the [presidential] candidates is most acceptable for Russia. Hence the third problem facing the Russian leadership; how to position Russia and make sure it won’t lose its face after the Ukrainian elections, considering their outcome. Finally, there is the problem of keys to Ukrainian power. Judging by the situation in Ukraine, there will be several decision-making centers, meaning several keys to Ukrainian power. Therefore, it is very important for Russia to determine exactly how many keys will be on the ring; several or one, using which it will be easier to open the doors to the offices of power in Ukraine, so as to effectively carry out Russian projects.
Andriy YERMOLAYEV, director, Sophia Institute for Social Studies:
It’s probably the first time in recent years that the Russian presidential elections have such a weak effect on Ukrainian political life. I think we should rather discuss the influence of those in power in Russia, which is still there. The Ukrainian political elite has actually accepted the idea that they will have to deal with Putin’s political elite in Russia. The most important question is, who will be able to do so and how. To all appearances, the Ukrainian political elite in power is showing a poor performance as an equal partner. The key issue of our elections is the formation of an elite capable of dealing with Russia on equal terms. Therefore, the key task of the Ukrainian elite should set itself, now that Putin is back in office and shaping a new team, is that Ukraine should determine its strategy concerning Russia toward the end of 2004 and [implement it] in 2005; that our elite should work out this concept and insist on it. By the way, Russia adopted a very convenient stand in working out the postelection agenda of Russian-Ukrainian relationships; it will remain an onlooker, perhaps investing a bit here and there, where it will see fit, and will then negotiate a deal with the winner of the presidential race.
