A year ago, before the definitive seizure of administrative buildings in Luhansk, leaflets with survival tips in case of artillery shelling began to appear at bus stops and entrances to apartment buildings. An artillery shelling in Luhansk in March would mean either ravings of a paranoiac or a practical joke. However, even back then there was a handful of “patriots” who tried to seize the Oblast State Administration, firing shots from traumatic pistols, while the city dwellers were terrorized by rumors of assaulting “Banderovites.” By May-June, Luhansk had been prepared to take any bang as an assault by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Why do I actually mention this?
Sometimes it can be useful to read Russian publics in social media and scroll down pro-Russian chauvinist websites. You must know that Russian propaganda is first of all aimed at Russians themselves, as well as their real or potential supporters on our territory. After the ritual murders in Kyiv and the orchestrated hysteria that followed (with pro-Russian politicians calling to rise up against the “junta” – well-known words, aren’t they?), this segment of the information field has been rife with familiar last-year’s messages: “Ukraine is to carry out massive shelling of Kharkiv with multiple rocket launchers.” Russians have been spreading information about those multiple rocket launchers, allegedly deployed around Kharkiv, and provocative messages about “the evil Banderovites.” This is but another drop in the shower of Russian “warnings,” regularly broadcast by certain channels, and yet it suggests a preparation to a synchronized attack, not necessarily with tanks and aircraft. But what will certainly be involved are organized domestic forces: agent provocateurs, extremists, political parties, and even religious communities, whose role is not always discussed. This attack will be carried out simultaneously on several fronts, and not purely geographical. We have to brace up not only for military and terror attacks, but also informational provocations, manipulations with public opinion, or abuse of situational responses, which cannot be countered without a consolidated civic society.
Speaking of geography. The hysteria around Kharkiv suggests that Putin probably considers an option of a future attack (or pressure) on our northeastern and northern borders, i.e. possibly from Belarus. This means proximity to western Ukraine, the Baltic States, and even to Poland. Lukashenka must be going every night to bed with thoughts about such a scenario, which would automatically mean a seizure of Belarus. Perhaps that is why he is slowly, but steadily, step by step increasing his distance from Moscow.
Russia has already turned Donbas into a fortress. Ukraine, on its part, has done everything to build a barrier between Donbas and the rest of its territory. One-way trip through checkpoints costs 1,000 to 1,700 hryvnias. Meanwhile, many former Party of Region members easily travel from Kyiv to the occupied territories and back. In particular, Volodymyr Struk was recently settling some family business in Yuvileine on the outskirts of Luhansk, and later he was already in Kyiv. Such voyages of persons who should permanently settle either in Luhansk or Moscow, or behind the bars at a Kyiv pre-trial detention facility, make rank-and-file Ukrainians wonder, and for a good reason. Luhansk has already become a bridgehead of Russian troops. The situation now is very much different from past August, when the so-called militias took off their camouflage in the city and the fighters tearfully begged Putin for help. Nowadays the retired are getting their benefits in Russian rubles, street names are being changed, Russian flags are hanging in front of offices, signs are being replaced, and assault weapons are continually pouring in. In other words, everything is done to provide the so-called “DNR” and “LNR” with at least external signs of statehood.
FOR MORE THAN A YEAR RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE BEEN POURING INTO UKRAINE, SEIZING NEW TERRITORIES. IT ALL BEGAN IN CRIMEA, WHERE TRAINLOADS OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT AND VEHICLES WERE SHIPPED BY THE KREMLIN / REUTERS photo
By the way, hirelings from Chita, Russia, recently got their allowances, which means an incentive before assault. In particular, Dmytro Tymchuk writes: “Today the terrorists have turned Luhansk in one big military camp. … Six large detached troops with a total strength of 5,500 to 6,000 men (including servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Russian mercenaries, and local fighters). Some 3,000 Russian troops have been spotted around Luhansk. To the south of Luhansk accumulation of terrorist artillery has been reported.”
All this is important in order to realize the challenges we are facing, and our preparedness to deal with them. At present, another mobilization wave to the Ukrainian Army is underway. However, the new recruits need to be trained. Unfortunately, their first training is mostly baptism of fire, taken in the first battle, and they pay a dear price. I would like to emphasize that in the year that passed Ukrainian troops have shown a powerful potential, despite the deplorable state of the Armed Forces after Yanukovych’s rule.
On April 20 President Petro Poroshenko opened the joint US-Ukraine military drills “Fearless Guardian” on the Yavorivsky Proving Ground in Lviv Oblast, which are to be held for six months. The president said that besides American instructors, Ukrainian troops will be trained by experts from the UK, Canada, and Poland. Overall 290 paratroopers of the US Army, who arrived in Ukraine past week, will take part in the exercise together with 900 Ukrainian troops. The exercise is to be held for three battalions.
After the exercise, the National Guard units will get special ammunition and communication means from their American counterparts. ATO spokesman Andrii Lysenko says that the troops will be taught to organize defense, reveal enemy positions, give first aid, and respond to fire.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov snapped in response to the news of the drill that “The presence of foreign instructors or experts from third countries in Ukraine, where an internal Ukrainian conflict remains unresolved … could destabilize the situation.” In the context of Tymchuk statement, quoted above, these words acquire a traditional cynical ring, with an expected emphasis on an alleged internal conflict. That is why we must impress the fact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on the international community. A very important step here was the symbolic Resolution “On Rebuffing the Russian Federation’s Armed Aggression and Overcoming Its Consequences,” passed by the Verkhovna Rada on April 21. The resolution legally establishes the stages of Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territories in chronological order, with corresponding conclusions and demands. In fact, this is the first consolidated document of such sort.
“The draft Resolution aims at creating the legal basis for bringing legal action against Russia in connection with the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. This is the first legal document to indicate the date of the commencement of the Russo-Ukrainian war, February 20, 2014,” noted Self Reliance MP Oksana Syroid, a co-author of the draft. “The document also contains a list of international obligations violated by Russia. The resolution includes a description of losses incurred by Ukraine as a result of the war: occupation of territories, material damages caused by Russia, loss of life, and human rights violations.”
Such a resolution is extremely important (although long overdue, as is always the case). We need to be ready for the next wave of aggression in all respects and fight in the legal field as well, timely reacting to the aggressor’s challenges, and sometimes anticipating them. The definition of the conflict in Donbas and the occupation of Crimea as facts of Russian aggression has an essential effect on Ukraine’s cooperation with the international community in the defense of our interests and territory.
