Against the background of the typically Ukrainian internal crisis currently unfolding in this country, the news that the GUUAM summit has been postponed somehow escaped the spotlight. The GUUAM summit in Kyiv originally had (and will hopefully have) two goals. First, it was to witness the birth of GUUAM as an international organization with its own charter, working structures, and defined role, all in the aftermath of several years of talks and speculations on creating a union of which Russia will not be a member. Second, the meeting of presidents of the group of countries willing to unite in GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) will for the first time be held on the territory of one of the states creating it, not on the sidelines of various international forums. This could be viewed as a clear signal that the intentions of the five countries are quite serious and that they are not going to make a secret of it.
Although the summit has been rescheduled, it will certainly be held, says Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. Perhaps the venue for the conference will be not Kyiv, but Yalta, where luxury hotels and government villas offer better accommodation for the presidents, where the situation is not as turbulent as in the capital and which will be significantly warmer for the summit in late April. Among the official reasons for postponing the summit are Azerbaijani President Geydar Aliyev’s tight schedule and the consequences of a political crisis in Moldova, where parliamentary elections are to be held on February 25 and President Petru Lucinschi stands a good chance of obtaining more power in running the country than he has now as only a nominal head of state, with Moldova giving up on being a parliamentary republic for quite some time (an experience worth studying in Ukraine). Evil tongues, however, maintain that the visit to Dnipropetrovsk by Russian President Putin had also some impact on the decision to reschedule the GUUAM summit.
It is obvious that GUUAM is definitely an irritant for Russia, despite the fact that the coalition is not aimed against Russia or any other political entity for that matter. At present, GUUAM can claim to be after two basic goals: to lay an oil pipeline to pump Caspian oil westward and to set up a free trade area. The new oil route could compete with the existing Russian ones but will not be a major challenge, even under the most favorable conditions for the five post-Soviet republics. Given the best scenario, one can predict approximately equal oil transit volumes via the Novorossiysk and Odesa routes. However, the new pipeline could reduce Moldova’s and Ukraine’s dependence on Russian oil. With respect to the free trade area, it seems that the prevailing skepticism on its chances within the CIS is not far off the mark.
It is no secret that three of the five GUUAM countries have their grievances toward Russia. The whole situation, however, can be viewed from a different perspective. After all, it was Russia that initiated the creation of a powerful Eurasian commonwealth to be based not only on a customs union but also a collective defense agreement. GUUAM, in fact, is not pursuing such large-scale geopolitical ends, ruling out any military cooperation except for protecting the future oil route. Yet, there are plans to involve Bulgaria and Romania in GUUAM in some way that would not jeopardize their entry in the European Union.
It seems likely that the only thing which can prevent the GUUAM project from being carried out is the internal instability of its potential members. For this reason, pushing ahead with GUUAM might not be the best option.
