Journalists and experts have long shared an idea about the importance of the US’s participation in the Minsk negotiations on settling the conflict in Donbas. This would look quite logical. Unlike France and Germany, it was the US and UK that signed the Budapest Memorandum in December 1994 together with Ukraine and Russia. Thus they became guarantors of Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty. Recently the US Ambassador to Russia John Tefft said in an interview to Echo of Moscow that should President Barack Obama be invited to join the Minsk process, he “would gladly agree.” “At least, I suspect he would. I have not talked to him about this. But it seems to me he spoke to President Putin on the phone, he has been talking to other presidents on the phone. And as I have already said, we dedicate quite a lot of time to this,” remarked Tefft. He also noted that Washington is trying to assist the Minsk negotiations in all possible ways. According to him, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France’s President Francois Hollande “are doing a great job.”
What would America’s participation in the Minsk talks with Russia give Ukraine? And how probable is that President Obama will agree to it? The Day asked the former ambassador of Ukraine to the US, author and publicist Yurii SHCHERBAK:
“Ambassador Tefft’s statement is a trial balloon, because he said that he did know the president’s real opinion and ‘has not discussed this issue with him, but he believes that…’ This is a typical diplomatic trick, probing for the reaction. If President Obama should say that, Putin might haughtily retort that he has nothing to seek there. It would be an insult for the US president.
“Tefft’s words are a symbolic signal. In diplomatic circles it has been rumored for more than a month about the US’s possible participation in the process. I even saw information that Putin is allegedly okay with Obama’s joining in. It is hard to say anything about the credibility of this information, but it is symbolic that it appeared.
“Ukraine is interested in America’s involvement in this process. Many Russian observers agree that it is Putin’s dream to discuss key issues of war, peace, and geopolitical division of the world with the president of the US, and not with the German chancellor or the president of France. Putin imagines himself to be a second Stalin, who decided the fates of the world with President Roosevelt. This underlies the idea of inviting President Obama to join the negotiations on Ukraine.
“It would be a very positive development, since the format of these talks would become more serious, and the US viewpoint, more decisive. Until now the US, based on Obama’s peace-making philosophy, has been avoiding active involvement in the negotiations on the situation between Russia and Ukraine. If Obama does not decline the offer and will participate in person, it would mean a new turn.
“By the way, it is known that Obama personally hates Putin and cannot even hear his name. Putin did his best to humiliate him, and Obama has a grudge against him. On the other hand, Obama has kept his distance as he was reluctant to undertake any political obligations. The return of the US to the negotiations with Moscow on the situation in Ukraine would be a crucial step.
“It is the guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum, such as the US and UK (rather than France, known for its double standards and cozying up to Russia), that must negotiate with Moscow.
“I do not know if anything comes of Ambassador Tefft’s statement, but this is a desirable signal for Ukraine.”
What would the US’s participation in these negotiations mean for Ukraine? Would Obama be able to influence Putin in some way or another, and convince him to stop supporting terrorists in Donbas and supply them with weapons?
“I do not believe Obama is capable of any such thing: it is next to impossible to convince Putin. But his petty pride and vanity would be flattered by the fact that he is talking not to some second-rate actors on the global political scene (this is what he considers them to be), but with the first-rate figure, the president of the US.
“Secondly, it would be important for Obama to see the logic of Putin and Russia and to become more concretely involved in this process, where he would be fully able to appreciate the need to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons, and to see for himself the mendacious Russian propaganda on ‘Russia’s non-involvement in Donbas.’ Obama would confront a great number of facts and understand what exactly is going on in the east of Ukraine.
“I have read a curious material by one American observer on the possibility of a world war between the US and Russia. He writes that the situation in Ukraine could well be the cause. This is a grim forecast. The ghost of a third world war, and a nuclear war, is on the agenda and has appeared on observers’ screens. We must realize that the situation is heading towards a catastrophe. Obama or the next US president will face Russia’s challenge. If this challenge should increase, they would have to take fatal decisions concerning the future of relations between the US and Russia. These are the links of the process which might mean that the world is on the way to a global conflict.”
