A few days ago, Russian opposition leader Garry Kasparov presented in Kyiv his book Trading in Fear. Following the presentation of the publication which devotes much attention to the recent years’ events in Ukraine, he agreed to answer a few questions for The Day.
How do you see the future of Donbas in the coming year: will the conflict stay frozen or will Putin go further?
“Having analyzed Putin’s actions over the past 15 years, I can say that after hesitating for a while, he always chose the toughest decision. It was perhaps his Leningrad upbringing, and then the KGB schooling which led him to understand that any form of compromise should be seen as a sign of weakness. In my opinion, Putin is using the Minsk Accords as a smoke screen. Most likely, he is now fighting to weaken the current wave of sanctions. Russian lobbyists abroad are using this calmer period to try and break through this economic blockade. I do not think that Putin will dare to take some active steps before May 9 because he wants to see a festive picture on that date. It will still be depressing for him, for the Victory Day parade’s guests of honor will be such “major figures” as senior leaders of Vietnam, North Korea, and Cuba...
Therefore, the most likely scenario for the Donbas is Putin attempting further advances after May 9. A frozen conflict there is unlikely to suit him. After all, the Russian propaganda is now manufacturing hatred. When foreign aggression serves as the primary justification for economic setbacks, people need to be shown some further results in order to maintain the enthusiasm of the population, which is starting to recover from its Crimean euphoria.”
How do you feel about the thesis that a rapid disintegration of the Russian empire is a likely result of the current policy of the Kremlin?
“I do not know what would be the timing for it… Anything can happen to a dictator when his inner circle starts to believe that they have become a burden. It happened many times. Putin is mistaken if he sees himself as immune to the laws of history.
“On the other hand, all this agony can last a long time. I would not expect a rapid collapse: Russia still has a sufficient resource endowment, the economy has not collapsed yet, and one should not expect drastic social upheavals... The government still enjoys the absolute control of the information space, so I would not expect an explosion any time soon as there is no organized opposition.
“However, I do agree that the Putinist regime’s collapse is quite likely to lead to the breakup of Russia itself in the mid-term timeframe (5 to 10 years). By the way, it would be highly dangerous for everyone. After all, unlike the former USSR, Russia has no recognized internal borders... No one knows where Chechnya ends: Ramzan Kadyrov is confident that its border runs through Stavropol. Still, the sooner this collapse happens, the more likely it is that Russia will not go into historical oblivion together with Putin.”
Why support for Putin reaches 75, nay, 85 percent in Russia?
“I always wonder, when I see the figure of 85 percent, where are the other 15 percent who do not like Putin... This is actually a lot of people. These many Russians are willing to speak out. It is clear that we live in a country where people know what the KGB is and have that ingrained fear which could not go away in just a few years. That is, we have people we can work with... The support levels can be different. We do not know if what they say is true... I see, you are asking whether Russians are ready to go against heavily armed riot policemen and die fighting them. Perhaps I should not say it in Kyiv, because people there have proven their will to confront the regime. However, it is difficult to demand the same from Muscovites, because everyone knows that Putin is a harder target than Viktor Yanukovych.
“Of course, we can expect something to happen. In my opinion, it can come much earlier than we expect, as soon as much of the Moscow middle class realizes that keeping Putin in power leads them into a dead end. We know that 100,000 people in the street is not enough, but 500,000 can be enough, for the street confrontation has a logic of its own and it is not impossible that at some point, the Moscow police will refuse to carry out orders of their superiors. Therefore, I feel cautiously optimistic...”
