Marine Le Pen’s ultra-right National Front leads in 6 out of 13 regions in the regional election in France. According to the polls, the right nationalists have garnered 28 percent of votes. Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republican Party and Francois Hollande’s pro-presidential Socialists are runners-up, with 27 and 23 percent respectively. This has been the first election after the bloody attack of November 13 in Paris, which claimed 130 lives. And it is considered an important sign of the level of support enjoyed by the incumbent socialist government and its security and migration policy.
Alarmed at the Le Pen party’s oncoming success, politicians, media, and civil organizations all urged the voters to stand up to the threat of nationalism. In the run-up to the election, resistance to the advance of nationalism was also promoted by mainstream left- and right-wing politicians, major trade unions, and some of the prestigious media such as Le Monde, L’Obs, and the like.
So why did the majority of French voters support an ultra-right party? The Day asked Galia ACKERMAN, Politique Internationale Russian office director, to share her comments on the polls.
“The French vote for the National Front for two reasons. The first is that the National Front’s image has changed greatly after Marine Le Pen became its leader. The National Front is posing now not as an ultra-right-wing party (although it essentially remains one), but as a democratic republican party. It has shed (at least, on the surface) its anti-Semitism which used to put people off. I must say that today many right politicians openly and unashamedly declare that they share the Le Pen party’s platform.
“In other words, Le Pen was able to overcome the ‘demonization,’ which for many years defined the party’s image, in particular, due to its leader’s scandalous escapades. Certainly, the deeper question remains: how much those facade declarations correspond to the party’s present-day essence. So far, it is hard to fathom. A considerable part of the NF is comprised by its old guards, those who joined the party under Jean-Marie Le Pen, and none of them was expelled except Le Pen Sr., due to his public statements. It is hard to judge what is going on there behind closed doors.
“The second reason is the shift in the sympathies among a certain part of French society, which is simply tired of politics, socialists, and the mainstream right-wing. First they were disappointed by Sarkozy, who failed to get re-elected. Then followed the disappointment in Hollande and the Socialists. What remains is a third force, the National Front. The recent attacks in Paris shifted the sympathies in many, prompting them to vote for the National Front. Le Pen has long been advocating a ban on double nationality, introducing border controls, and suspending the Schengen agreement.
“And all at once these attacks happened, and the socialist government virtually took those very measures which Le Pen had urged to take: it introduces border controls inside the Schengen zone, deprives suspects of French citizenship, holds searches, and introduces the state of emergency. In a word, it is effectively forced to take those very measures, which Le Pen demanded. I remember the time when her father said that the right-wing were copycatting them, so instead of voting for copycats, you should vote for the original.
“The same is happening to the Socialist Party nowadays. In a situation, when the socialist government totally failed to curb unemployment and when drastic measures in security are necessary, one should not be amazed at such a vote.”
What is the difference between Sarkozy’s Republican Party and the National Front members calling themselves genuine republicans?
“The Republicans do not want any alliance with Le Pen, and she, likewise, won’t hear of an alliance with the Republicans. The difference lies first of all in their attitude toward Europe. The Republicans are a pro-European party, while Le Pen’s is an anti-European one. Besides, Le Pen’s economic agenda contains numerous demagogical welfare steps, which absolutely do not have to be implemented if she comes to power. This party attracts the remnants of the working class and the dispirited part of France’s population. In some aspects, the National Front is much more left-wing than the Republicans, who still remain a classical Gaullist political force, less liberal and pro-European.
“There is one thing that brings both parties very close. And this thing is rather unpleasant for Ukraine. Le Pen’s party is undoubtedly 100 percent pro-Putin. And for it, Russia is some sort of a panacea for France’s all economic maladies. Its representatives believe that, by keeping abreast with Putin, they can become estranged from NATO and secede from Europe. Sarkozy’s Republican Party is pro-European and rather supportive of an alliance with the US. By the way, Sarkozy as president had excellent relations with America, but his party also advocates a rapprochement with Putin, an alliance with Russia, and the lifting of economic sanctions.”
What are the odds for Sarkozy or Bordeaux Mayor Alain Juppe to win the presidential election?
“It is hard to tell now. So far, Sarkozy sends more ripples across the media than Juppe, but Sarkozy could face court trials, so it is too early to guess who might win the Republicans’ primaries. I hear there could be unexpected leaks of damnatory evidence, a war of compromising. Sarkozy has a lot to lose.”
Won’t the increase of the National Front’s popularity in France cause the break-up of Europe?
“So far, we are talking about regional elections. The situation is very complex due to re-shaping the regions, initiated by the Socialists. Now the country is divided into 13 regions, and not 22. And in 6 out of these 13 Le Pen is leading. This is a dreadful outcome, and it will be somewhat improved in the second round. But we must take into consideration that this is about regional government, which does not play a principal role in France’s foreign policy. They might build closer relations with Russia on the regional level, initiate cultural exchanges or something like this, but at present no changes are to be seen in the national policy.
“The changes will be associated with presidential and parliamentary elections. So far there is no evidence that Le Pen might win the 2017 presidential election, or the subsequent parliamentary one.
“So, we can only hope that we will not get a new wave of terror attacks. I think that the terrorists’ goal is to provoke a civil war in France. The more attacks, the more voters supporting Le Pen. Given that France has a Muslim population of nearly seven million, and a considerable proportion of socialists, communists, and other parties, one could say that half the nation will oppose Le Pen. We do not know so far what implications it could have, but many fear civil war and unrest. And this would probably become the worst summary of the future, should the National Front come to power indeed.”
