The joint press conference of Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, and Ukraine Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Jean-Marc Ayrault, and Pavlo Klimkin in Kyiv showed differences in the parties’ understanding of the ways of implementation of the Minsk Agreements. The Ukrainian minister rightly spoke of the need to ensure real security, which would be possible “if Russian regular troops and an infinite number of mercenaries leave the Donbas, and if weapons, ammunition, and all that Russia is trying to supply to the Donbas throughout these months stop coming there.” Only then can we talk about elections, the minister stressed, for otherwise, this can be seen as Russia’s desire to “integrate” the Donbas in Ukraine to destabilize the situation.
Meanwhile, Steinmeier and Ayrault stressed that Ukraine needs to fully implement the Minsk Agreements, which represent the only alternative allowing to resolve the conflict in the Donbas. Moreover, the German minister said that they expected to see Ukraine formulating the plan on modality (logic and form) of elections in the Donbas before the meeting of ministers in the Normandy format, to be held in Paris on March 3. Steinmeier added that the election law for the region should be the next step.
However, the two ministers did not tell the press how they planned to make Russia to carry out its side of the Minsk II. Hardly anyone in Ukraine could be content with Steinmeier’s response: “We cannot accept violations of the ceasefire in the Donbas... I think that during our meeting in Paris, we will achieve some necessary compromises and agree on a common position and will be able to bridge all the rifts that still divide us.”
Meanwhile, Ayrault devoted much of his speech to urging Ukraine to finally install a government that will reflect the Euromaidan’s expectations, implement reforms, which are called for by Minsk II among other documents, and which Ukraine needs to implement to solve its issues rather than to stop half the way.
The Day turned to experts for comments and recommendations how Ukraine should act in the situation where it is urged to fully implement Minsk II when the other party does not implement even its first provision, that is, the ceasefire.
Chairperson of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Affairs Hanna Hopko believes that before the modality of elections can be discussed, we need “to see security issues resolved: the ceasefire, withdrawal of Russian troops, access for the OSCE and the security mission, not just the special monitoring one, exchange that would free our political prisoners; instead, they push or force us into a scenario of recognizing the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk ‘people’s republics.’”
“NO ELECTIONS SHOULD BE HELD IN THE DONBAS UNTIL WE REACH, STEP-BY-STEP, THE 11th PROVISION OF THE MINSK II AGREEMENTS”
Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, Doctor of Political Science, conflictologist, professor at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv:
“As is now evident, both Germany and France are trying with their Ukraine policies to implement the Morel Plan, designed by Pierre Morel who had served as the ambassador of France to Russia.
“This project of appeasement at the victim’s expense was implemented by Germany and France before in South Ossetia, which is going to hold a referendum on joining Russia. In 2008, their plan called for the legalization of South Ossetia’s detachment from Georgia. And the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was proclaimed with a view to creating an area of international standing that would allow its members to enter into international agreements. It was a way of granting international legitimacy. In the case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, all this was ostensibly done to establish lasting peace. It was claimed that Georgia would not encroach on the occupied territories after they become constituent members of the Russian Federation.
“Now, with the support of Germany and France which are seeking lasting peace, our adversaries are preparing the effective secession of the Donbas as the first phase of Russian annexation of this territory. In fact, the elections themselves involve entrenching in local authorities Russian FSB agents and figures of the puppet regime. This period, I mean the electoral campaign, is designed to allow Russia to really take power in the center and on the ground. They will then hold a referendum on joining Russia, and this territory will then sign, as an independent entity, an accession treaty with Russia granting it the status of a constituent member of the Russian Federation.
“Maybe it will not happen immediately, and Russia may defer granting the constituent member status to the Donbas. But internationally, it would be a legitimate Russian territory. Actually, Steinmeier and Ayrault are pushing this plan so that Ukraine through decentralization gives the Donbas the right to self-determination. It is likely that such an agreement exists between Steinmeier and Vladimir Putin, who see this as the most sustainable guarantee of peace and ending conflict, of course, to their advantage. France and Germany will then happily lift all sanctions imposed on Russia.
“It is surprising that these ministers ignore the UN’s peacekeeping strategy and the UN Charter while imposing such a scheme on Ukraine. And in this case, by following the Minsk Agreements, we are surrendering our territory of our own accord. Speaking of the strategy of conflict resolution, it should involve signing and implementation of the ceasefire agreement, arms withdrawal, disarmament of militants and withdrawal of foreign troops, and restoration of control over the border. What about these conditions, because without them, no one will recognize these elections as legitimate, not even Germany? Why do they ignore it all to push this plan of Russian annexation of the Donbas? This is a plan of Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory, being implemented by Germany as represented by Steinmeier.”
But Minister Klimkin believes that Russia’s vision of the implementation of the Minsk Agreements is an attempt to integrate the Donbas into Ukraine to destabilize the situation. Is he wrong?
“The word ‘integration’ is inappropriate in this case. How can you integrate a hostile territory controlled by Russian troops and being shaped as a springboard for the invasion and destruction of Ukraine as such? How can you integrate people, 90 percent of whom hate Ukraine and are ready to execute Ukrainians? Russia aims to destroy Ukraine as a state for good.”
What, then, should be Ukraine’s position in this case, if it is to protect its interests?
“There is a clear sequence of the Minsk Agreements’ provisions, and elections are the 11th of them. While nine previous provisions are still not implemented, no discussion of the elections’ modality should be held. Nobody has any right to blame us for failing to comply with this or that provision. We must offer convincing arguments that Germany and France, in their capacity as mediators, have not achieved consistent implementation.
“So, we must defend our interests in this case, if we are to maintain our territorial integrity, for the implementation of Minsk II can lead to the collapse of the state. This is exactly the goal that Putin has failed to achieve by military means. Now, it looks like he will be able to achieve it by military-political means and with the assistance of our partners. Therefore, no elections should be held until we reach, step-by-step, the 11th provision of the Minsk II agreements.”
