On Tuesday this year’s last meeting of negotiators in the settling of the conflict in Donbas took place in Minsk. The main issue on the agenda was the report of the humanitarian team on releasing the hostages. The security team heard the report of the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of Parties on the ceasefire regime. The format of the negotiations in 2016 will be decided by the Normandy Four.
It is obvious that on many key issues the negotiations have stalled. We would like to remind our readers that the Minsk accords that were signed past February envisaged a consensus by the end of the outgoing year. Indeed, since the early summer the security team has made noticeable progress in the matter of ceasefire. Moreover, the negotiators have come close to the matter of demining the territories, which is decisive not only in the ensuring of safety for civilians and the military, but also for the key moment, taking over the control of the Ukrainian-Russian border. This last item still remains a pie in the sky, for the mentioned accords put forward a term: holding elections in the occupied territories exactly before the establishment of such control. Thus, the Minsk accords format has become not so much a means of solving the conflict as a means of coercing Ukraine by the aggressor. This cul-de-sac on the level of the political team is aggravated by constant breaking of the armistice by the occupiers. The terrorists have been shelling our positions for two months and, according to recent information, have started to use weapons forbidden by the accords (for instance, an amassing of the forbidden tanks and gun motor carriages was reported outside Horlivka).
Russia, in its turn, is doing its best to transfer the Minsk talks to the format of direct dialog between Kyiv and the terrorists. Moreover, Russia’s permanent representative at the OSCE Aleksandr Lukashevich said during a video bridge between Moscow and Vienna that Russia finds it unacceptable (sic!) that elections in the occupied regions of Donbas be held according to Ukraine’s current legislation, as foreseen by the Minsk accords. “These elections must be prepared by the parties to the conflict (sic!), i.e. Kyiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk,” said Lukashevich. In this respect, Russia’s goal is clear: to emphasize that Ukraine is torn by a domestic conflict, muffling the Kremlin’s aggression, and at the same time effectively perpetuate the “special status” of the occupied territories, whitewash the criminals, thus forcing Ukraine into capitulation and even subsidizing the break-away territories. Ukraine’s goal is to most efficiently use the negotiations for amassing its own capacities. Unfortunately, the loss of time here plays against Ukraine, as the terrorists consolidate their grip on Donbas and the problems within Ukraine accumulate and increase (bitterness, ideological division, bloodshed). The Kremlin will use the dominance of its propaganda to further exploit these factors of destabilization in the country.
COMMENTARY
Ihor ROMANENKO, former deputy chief of the General Staff, the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
“As of now, the engagement line is relatively stabilized and hostilities are at the minimum. This allowed us to gain the crucial lead in time in order to increase the capacities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other structures in the security and defense sector. It is of vital importance. The weapons of various caliber are partly withdrawn. It concerns not only the weapons specified in Minsk-2, but also the ones specified in an additional agreement on calibers below 100 mm. It should also be mentioned that we have held a partial exchange of hostages or POWs, depending on how you qualify these events: as an anti-terrorist operation or a war. However, such results cannot satisfy us, because Ukraine’s ultimate goal is the liberation of the occupied territories, expulsion of terrorists and their weapons, and total control of the border. Russians realize that the idea of building the so-called ‘Russian world’ has flopped, just like the failed ‘Novorossia’ project. Proceeding from this, Putin is trying to create a ‘gray zone’ in Donbas, via which Russia could exercise military, economic, social, and political pressure on Ukraine as state. Russia is trying to force Ukraine to amend its constitution in what concerns the status of the occupied territories and elections.
“On our part, we are going to either exploit the ‘Minsk format’ for gaining further progress in the negotiations, or opt for another approach. Here we need to frankly say that we must be prepared for a ‘Croatian variant’ [for which we should have our own Franjo Tudman. – Author]. Now there are some 8,000 Russian troops on Ukrainian ground. Russia is economically incapable of full-scale hostilities on several fronts at the same time, although it can increase its potential in Donbas. At present, it is only able to carry out tactical operations.”
