Many experts expected and foresaw the failure of the referendum on constitutional changes held last Sunday in Italy on the initiative of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. He made a stake and lost, as did British Premier David Cameron who suffered a defeat in the June 23, 2016, referendum on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. Only 40 percent of Italians supported the premier’s proposals, while 60 percent voted against.
It will be recalled that the Renzi-proposed reform envisioned reduction of the powers of the Italian parliament’s upper house (Senate) and regional administrations. It was proposed in the referendum that the current system of a bicameral parliament, in which both chambers have equal powers, be abolished. The idea was to cut the number of senators to 100 and deprive the Senate of the right to dismiss the government or block the lawmaking process for too long. In that case, the government would be stronger and more stable. Referendum organizers believed these measures would bring political stability to Italy.
The opposition argued that these proposals would let the premier concentrate too much power in his or her hands. The referendum was also important to the EU because the “No” camp mostly consists of Euro-skeptical political forces.
As is known, calling the referendum, Renzi announced he would resign if Italians did not support his idea of constitutional changes. When he saw that his reform proposal was rejected, he said he was taking full responsibility for the defeat. At the same time, the premier urged his opponents, who had been calling for a negative vote, to put forward their own proposals.
“My government’s experience ends here. I believe that in order to change this political system, in which leaders remain the same and switch different positions, but don’t change the country, we cannot pretend for an umpteenth time that everything remains as before. They don’t change their habits and they will never leave their seats… Today’s Italian democracy relies on a parliamentary system. When we asked for a confidence vote we asked to simplify the system, eliminate the two-house system, lower the cost of politics, and increase the spaces for direct democracy… We were not convincing enough,” the media quote Renzi as saying.
Experts believe that the composition and powers of the Senate do not matter much to society, but the public, dissatisfied with a steep increase in the number of migrants from the Middle East and economic stagnation, received an opportunity to express discontent about the government. And they told the premier quite resolutely that they wanted no constitutional reforms.
The referendum means a convincing victory for the country’s main opposition parties led in this campaign by the populist Five Star Movement. It will be recalled that the “Say No” campaign was spearheaded by the anti-migrant party Lega Nord and the Five Star Movement headed by the former comedian Beppe Grillo who calls for a referendum on leaving the euro. Now the movement’s goal is to win in the next general elections and revise Italy’s relations with the European Union. One of the Five Star leaders, Luigi Di Maio, has already announced that the movement is prepared to rule the country. “Starting tomorrow, we’ll be working on a government of the 5-Stars,” he said.
The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for February 2018. In the meantime, the president of Italy can exercise his right and appoint someone from the ruling Democratic Party as acting premier.
Renzi was considered to be the only premier in Europe, who had a vision of the EU’s future. No wonder then that German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman said that she “regretted” the resignation of Renzi but Germany would offer close cooperation with the next Italian government.
Meanwhile, right-wing European politicians hastened to congratulate the referendum winners. “The Italians have disavowed the EU and Renzi. We must listen to this thirst for freedom of nations,” Marine Le Pen, leader of Frances’ National Front, tweeted.
“NOW IT IS A QUESTION OF OVERCOMING THE DOMESTIC CRISIS, NOT OF FORMING A NEW GOVERNMENT”
Yevhen PERELYHIN, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Italy, Rome:
“There is no shortage today of expert conclusions about the results of the December 4 popular vote, so disastrous to Matteo Renzi. On the one hand, identification of the referendum with confidence in himself as head of the Italian government is considered one of Renzi’s tactical mistakes. On the other, in the absence of a clearly visible improvement of the economic situation, it was impossible to turn the personal qualities of a leader into a steady political success. In the next few days we will see Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella make some decisions to settle the political crisis. One of the first options to defuse the governmental crisis may be an invitation to the Democratic Party to propose a new candidate for premiership if this party continues to hold a clear majority in parliament. As for the future elections in Italy, the opposition parties have serious differences in the vision of the dates of the likely early elections. While the leaders of the Five Star Movement and Lega Nord are calling for immediate elections under the current law, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia believes that the current parliament should first draw up a new election platform within two or three months and only then the new elections can be called. In any case, we are very likely to see parliamentary elections in Italy in 2017.
“I am convinced that Italy has a future. I came to this conclusion, listening to Renzi’s nighttime speech after the vote. If a country adheres to democratic principles and its leader announces his resignation one hour and 20 minutes after the publication of exit poll data only because most people did not accept his concept of constitutional changes at this stage, this country, with this kind of new-formation politicians, is ‘doomed’ to further successful development. What is more, Renzi did not try to procrastinate the time and cling to a top governmental office for at least one more day, nor did he demand waiting for the announcement of official results and, moreover, the presentation of reports with wet seals. In all probability, Renzi really made some tactical mistakes while advancing constitutional changes, but I am sure he will win a lot of strategic victories in the near future.
“As for the likely impact of Renzi’s resignation on Italy’s attitude to sanctions against Russia over the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine, it is now a question of overcoming the domestic crisis caused by the announcement of Renzi’s resignation, not of forming a new government in the wake of the elections.”
