The French parliamentary election saw the “La Republique en Marche!” movement, founded by Emmanuel Macron past year, and its ally Democratic Movement party winning almost a third of the vote (32.3 percent). The Republicans finished second with 21.6 percent, and the National Front came third with 13.7 percent. The Socialist Party, which was the largest political force in the parliament before the election, won only 9.5 percent of the vote. The election to the National Assembly of France is held in two rounds in single-member constituencies. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive an absolute majority of the votes cast and at least a quarter of the votes of all registered voters. If no candidate won an absolute majority in the first round, the two candidates who received the most votes progress to the second round, where the winner is determined by a simple majority. The second round of the French parliamentary elections is set for June 18.
The victory for the “La Republique en Marche!” was widely expected. “So far, Macron has maintained the positive momentum that emerged during the presidential election,” a source in the Ukrainian diplomatic corps commented for The Day on the election results. However, the source added that the French president faced some serious challenges, primarily related to labor laws. “A lot will depend on whether these difficult reforms will be implemented, which require some effort from the entire society. Of course, it will have an impact on the parties and on political developments in the country as well,” stressed the diplomat.
Our interlocutor also noted that at a press conference held after the G7 summit, Macron labeled Russia as an aggressor, making him the first Western politician to do so. According to the diplomat, “the French president’s position on the Minsk process is sufficiently clear and favorable for us.”
The Day asked the chairman of the Center for Study and Research on Political Decision (CERAP) Nicolas Tenzer to comment on the election results and to tell our readers what would be Macron’s policy in the EU and on relations with Ukraine, given that France is a party to the Normandy format talks.
“MOST VOTERS PIN BIG HOPES ON MACRON’S POLITICAL MOVEMENT”
“The reason for Macron’s success is the desire of the French to completely reshuffle the political scene of their country. They rejected all the old classic parties, the Socialists and conservative Republicans, because they want to see new faces in politics. That is what this election is about. Many people support Macron and want to give him a free hand to reform the country.
“The defeat of the traditional political parties in this election has come because they had ethical issues. Therefore, the majority of voters have grown disappointed in them and pin big hopes on Macron’s political movement. Maybe not all of them are his supporters, but they prefer him and want to give a chance to the head of the French state. In addition, nearly four out of five new MPs will enter the National Assembly of France for the first time. These people have never been elected before and only recently entered politics. It is the first such occurrence in the history of France.”
“MACRON’S VICTORY IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION WILL MAKE THE EU MORE CONFIDENT”
What actions can be expected from Macron as he tries to strengthen the EU?
“Macron is a true supporter of the EU and wants to strengthen the bloc, which needs to become more efficient, less bureaucratic, and protect people better. Macron will defend European values, and human rights are at the heart of his program, including protection of dissidents and minorities. Also, his victory in the parliamentary election will make the EU more confident, especially now after the general election in the UK and the defeat of the far-right in the Netherlands. It should be noted that Macron has criticized Hungary and Poland, where the power is held by right-wing conservative forces. I think that he will have a strong position on the EU countries that do not adhere to liberal values.
“Clearly, reforming the EU market and the tax system will be a challenge for Macron, and France has very high taxes. Therefore, a lot of things need to change in the French Republic. In particular, I mean the reform of the education system, which is important for any country.”
“MACRON UNDERSTANDS THAT ONE SHOULD TALK FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH WITH PUTIN”
Can Macron contribute to improving Russia’s implementation of the Minsk Agreements through the Normandy format talks?
“When receiving Vladimir Putin in France, Macron clearly stated that the Normandy format was the only existing instrument for resolving the conflict in the Donbas and if Russia did not comply with the Minsk Agreements, it would force other parties to consider the introduction of new sanctions against it. Macron has a very strong position on this issue. Having demonstrated that diplomatic leverage, he made it clear that the door to negotiations was open. Macron also stressed the need to have a real and objective assessment of the OSCE mission on the situation in the Donbas. However, it is known to be aggravated by Russian attacks and shellings of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ positions and civilians. Macron will use the next summit of leaders of the Normandy format countries to appeal to Putin with a request to show readiness to fulfill his part of the Minsk Agreements. If the latter fails to do so, Macron will try to convince other leaders of EU countries to strengthen sanctions against Russia. It is unknown whether all countries will go for it, but it is clear that the French president will seek greater commitment from the EU to protect Ukraine and cooperate with it. Macron already demonstrated his firmness during the first meeting with the Russian leader. No other European leader has spoken with Putin so firmly, and it sends a good signal that Macron is not a friend of the Russian leader. He understands that one should talk from a position of strength with Putin.”
