Turkish analytics say that April 16 is the last hope for Turkey to stay on democratic way. At this day a constitutional referendum will take place, where people need to give a simple answer: “yes” or “no” for making presidential power of Recep Tayyip Erdogan stronger and for the change from parliamentary republic into presidential. This way people will decide political future of their country for years and most likely at least for one decade.
NEW CONSTITUTION AND PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLIC
Turkish opposition leaders call the future referendum which has been initiated by presidential Justice and Development Party (AKP) – “a sultanate without a throne” and the most radical political change since the modern republic’s foundation in 1923.
Parliamentary model of government would be changed into presidential. Erdogan would become both head of state and head of government.
A lot of experts say that this referendum just makes de jure what has already happened de facto. Because Turkish president has expanded his power for constitutional limits a long time ago.
The main argument of referendum’s initiators is that the proposed model, is working in the US now, where one branch of power controls another one and there is a famous “checks and balances system” between the executive, legislative, and judicial systems. So if the president exceeds his power, Congress and Supreme Court would say their words.
At the same time in a report released in March, the Venice Commission saw “little resemblance” between Turkey’s proposals and the American model, noting that the amendments “would confer substantially more power on the president, and include substantially fewer checks and balances” than in the US.
ACCRETION OF POWER
Legislative power of parliament would be reduced and the president could easily bypass parliament by issuing decrees with the force of law.
Currently, the president may return bills to parliament to be reconsidered, but lawmakers can bypass his objections with a simple majority. Yet under the new constitution, the president gains veto rights on any law, a power that parliament can only override with an absolute majority.
The president would be able to appoint his own cabinet, selecting and firing ministers and other senior officials without approval from parliament.
He would be responsible for the annual budget and national security policy.
The constitutional changes abolish the role of prime minister and the president could personally appoint one or several vice-presidents.
The president may be partisan. The current constitution requires the president to be neutral.
Analytics say it is a law which Erdogan has broken many times since becoming president when he repeatedly campaigned on behalf of the AKP.
Parliament would keep some powers – to declare war, for instance. But its ability to control the executive branch of power is restricted under the new constitution.
The impeachment process is complex, requiring the support of an absolute majority in parliament and the approval of the Constitutional Court. But the president appoints a number of Constitutional Court members.
The new constitution would enable the president to appoint 4 out of 13 members of the Council of Judges and Prosecutors – the judiciary’s top disciplinary board – in addition to the minister and undersecretary of justice, who also sit on the Council. The remaining seven members are elected by parliament.
But the Venice Commission warned – the president could control the entire board if his party held a three-fifths majority in parliament.
In Turkey, where judiciary independence has plummeted and which now ranks 151st of 180 countries in the press freedom index of the watchdog Reporters Without Borders, an all-powerful president would mean the death knell for democracy, they say.
Parliamentary elections would be held every five years instead of every four, with presidential elections taking place simultaneously. A president would only be allowed to stay in office for two full terms but he would be permitted to stand for a third term, in case of early elections.
The proposed changes are projected to be activated in 2019 and Erdogan could rule Turkey until 2029.
TURKISH-EUROPEAN RELATIONS
Just a year ago Turkey and Europe agreed about common partnership.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel came to create the so called “migration deal,” according to which Turkey agrees to help Europe with migrants. In return the country will get financial and political support, in addition to a long-awaited visa-free travel to Europe for Turks.
After the failed coup of July 2016 and the massive arrests of journalists, teachers, prosecutors, and everyone who could be dangerous for the current government, the relationship between Turkey and Europe became much colder. And the country didn’t get what was promised.
Finally, after the scandal when such European countries as the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany refused to allow Turkish cabinet ministers to campaign on their soil ahead of the future referendum, the Turkish-European diplomatic relationships became seriously spoiled.
It was very important for Turkey to agitate in Europe because the total amount of Turks living there is 2.5 million people. They all are potential voters who could help the current president to win.
According to the recent surveys, 51 percent of Turkish people said “no’ and 49 percent – “yes” to new constitution. Generally speaking, the society is divided in this question and every voter is important.
Today, the largest Turkish diaspora – 1.4 million people – lives in Germany. Voting in Germany took place from March 27 till April 9 at Turkish consulates across the country.
After the necessary agitation in Europe was forbidden, the Turkish president accused the Dutch government of being “Nazi remnants.” According to the opinion of European leaders that was out of any line.
New German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in his speech to the German parliament said that now Turkey jeopardizes all what was built: “President Erdogan, you jeopardize all that you have built with the others. Shut down the unspeakable Nazi comparisons, do not cut the bond with those who want partnership with Turkey, respect the rule of law and the freedom of media and journalists.”
He also called to free German journalist Deniz Yucel who has been detained by Turkish authorities on terrorism charges.
HOW THE RESULTS OF TURKISH REFERENDUM CAN INFLUENCE UKRAINE?
The executive director of the Center for Middle East Studies, Ihor Semyvolos, says that whatever the results are going to be, it won’t have any effect on Ukraine: “Today, we have a good, normal I would say even dynamic relationship with Turkey. Especially, after the recent visit of Prime Minister Hroisman and after we signed a visa liberalization agreement. We are closely working in military and aircraft industries. So, the situation with Russia doesn’t have any influence on Ukrainian-Turkish relations. Of course, there is a possibility of tension in Turkey after the referendum. The country may be too busy with its own problems for our partnership. I think there is another problem we have to think about. Those who are against this referendum will recognize the results if more than 60 percent of voters would come. Now, according to the recent surveys, it is less than 60 percent of people who are ready to come and vote. That is why there is a risk of falsification accusations after the referendum. But I don’t believe that something serious may happen. The time of protests in Turkey has passed.”
So, whatever the outcome of referendum would be it will not resolve the country’s chronic domestic instability, heal its deepening social divisions, revive its flagging economy or end its growing international isolation. This is what a lot of Turkish experts are saying. They think if Turks reject new constitution, Turkish president is expected to call an early general election – in the hope that his AKP party will win and secure a substantial parliamentary majority for him.
This way, even with a possibility that a negative for the incumbent Turkish president result will untie his critics and opponents’ hands, the parliamentary majority of his party guarantees him to be in power further.
Viktoria Kriukova is a student at the Institute of Journalism, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
