In line with expectations, the Republican Party, known also as the GOP (Grand Old Party), won the midterm elections to the US Congress held on November 4. Let us recall that Americans elected one third of the Senate, all 435 members of the House of the Representatives, 36 state governors (out of 50) and officials in 44 states on that day.
The Republicans had a majority in the House of Representatives even before the vote, but they have increased it by 11 seats, leaving them and the Democrats in control of, respectively, 242 and 175 seats in the 435-member lower house of Congress. The control of the Senate was the top prize in the fight, as the Democrats dominated it before the elections. The Republicans needed to gain an additional six seats, they took as many as seven and now they have 52 representatives in the 100-member Senate, which plays an important role in the foreign policy of the country. Without the Senate’s support, US president may not appoint ambassadors and civil servants as well as enter in international agreements.
The Day turned to a Ukrainian and an American experts, asking them to comment on the elections’ results, and in particular to predict how they will affect the relationship between the US and Ukraine.
“THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION HAS LOST MOST FROM IT, OF COURSE”
Oleh SHAMSHUR, former Ambassador of Ukraine to the US, Kyiv:
“First of all, these results are important in terms of US domestic politics. The Republicans in the House of Representatives are now enjoying the largest majority since World War II. It looks like they have also won a comfortable majority in the Senate. Accordingly, Obama is now facing a major problem. The American president finds himself in a critical situation where he cannot count on support in any house, as both are now dominated by the Republicans. Therefore, the chances of any of his legislative initiatives clearing the Congress look very slight.
“On the other hand, the Republicans may well find their victory to be a ‘poisoned pill,’ as they will now be held entirely responsible for the legislature. We must remember that firstly, Americans are very dissatisfied with both the president and the Congress, and now all responsibility for the Congress will fall on the Republicans’ shoulders as the 2016 elections approach.
“What we will see will be a dead end, for neither party can impose their legislative agenda on another. And yet, given the present discontent that Americans have with all institutions of power, they will have to reach compromises on some issues. The situation is really difficult, but if one has to determine who has lost most from it, it is, of course, the Obama administration, for the president has already been in a weakened position for the past two years. Now that he cannot count on the cooperation of the legislative body, it will be even more difficult for him to impose his vision of any issue, and consequently, push through any bill he would like to see passed.
“With regard to foreign policy issues, it is unlikely that we will see any swings. With regard to their stances on the ‘Islamic State,’ Russia and relations with Russia, the Republicans are firmer on all of them. On the other hand, we must understand that they were that way when they had no leverage. Of course, now it will be interesting to see whether they will implement their declared intentions of the previous period by taking practical steps.”
“THE CONGRESS IS ABLE TO MORE EFFECTIVELY INFLUENCE U.S. POLICYMAKING ON UKRAINE”
How will the Republican control, especially of the Senate, impact the relationship between the US and Ukraine?
“It looks like the election of Senator Bob Corker to chairmanship of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs will increase the chances of the bill on support for Ukraine, introduced by Senator Robert Menendez, passing that house. But I do not think we can expect any radical change in the American policy towards Ukraine. It should be understood that the implementation of foreign policy rests with the White House.
“Still, it is very important in terms of our interests to have Ukraine assigned the status of a major non-NATO US ally. Correspondingly, passing of the Ukraine Support Act, which will be a binding law, will contribute to the military cooperation achieving a higher level and promote assistance for the Ukrainian economy. That is, there are a lot of positive things for us in that bill. The Congress is able to more effectively influence US policymaking on Ukraine.
“However, we need some more time to draw conclusions. First, we must see how the bill will be adopted and in what form. Second, it is unclear whether the White House, which is responsible for the implementation of foreign policy, will amend its course so as to make its policy towards Ukraine effective indeed.
“The Ukraine Support Act can also be passed by the current Congress; it will send a very strong signal if it is done prior to the new members of the Congress taking their seats in January next year. This is a significant event because it is not a declaration, but a binding law. To be enacted, however, it must pass the Senate. The chances of its adoption are very high. It is clear already that with the Republicans having captured total control of the Congress, the Ukraine Support Act will be passed sooner.”
What should Ukraine expect from US Vice President Joe Biden’s visit?
“I hope that he will bring some practical suggestions. I think that this visit is considered to be first and foremost an expression of support for Ukraine from the US, including in its confrontation with Russia. The main effect is moral support, although I do not rule out that he will bring some proposals for developing cooperation. One should not expect something real and different from what we have seen so far.”
William TAYLOR, former US Ambassador; president and chief executive officer, United States Institute of Peace, Washington:
“In my view the midterm elections here in the United States will not greatly affect the US policy toward Ukraine and its struggle against Russian aggression – there is strong bipartisan support for Ukraine today and that will continue in the next Congress. Support for providing Ukraine the means to defend itself against further invasion should continue to grow. I expect that the Administration will be giving serious consideration to that and to other forms of military, financial, technical, and political support. I’m sure Vice President Biden, on behalf of the American people and the US Administration, will express strong support for Ukraine, its full sovereignty and complete territorial integrity.”
“THERE IS GROWING BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR PROVIDING UKRAINE WITH LETHAL MEANS TO DEFEND ITSELF”
David J. Kramer, President, Freedom House, Washington:
When it comes to Russia and Ukraine, we have seen a rare thing on Capitol Hill over the past year: strong, bipartisan support for Ukraine and outrage toward Putin’s Russia. Remember that the draft legislation for supporting Ukraine passed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in September 18-0. Sen. Menendez has been very good and outspoken on Russia-Ukraine, and I expect Sen. Corker, the likely new chairman of the Committee to be the same. Similarly, I think we can expect a tough line from Sen. McCain as chairman of the Armed Services Committee, but Sen. Levin, the outgoing chairman was good, too; still, McCain will be more outspoken. I don’t expect much change in the House. There is growing bipartisan support for providing Ukraine with lethal means to defend itself, and I expect that support in the Congress to increase after yesterday’s election.
