Let us analyze the already known persons in order of their appearance on the stage. Lieutenant General (Retired) Michael T. Flynn, nominated by Trump for the position of national security adviser, is seen as both pro-Russian and anti-Russian politician, because on the one hand, he appeared as an expert on Russia Today, but on the other, his book The Field of Fight: How We Can Win the Global War Against Radical Islam and Its Allies, published in 2016, includes assertions that the Kremlin is part of the global anti-US alliance and describes the Russian president as an unreliable partner in the fight against the so-called Islamic State.
For the Department of Defense, Trump has nominated James N. Mattis, a retired Marine general who headed the US Central Command in 2010-13, the US Joint Forces Command in 2007-10, and at the same time was the Supreme Allied Commander of Transformation in 2007-09, just as the Russian aggression against Georgia was unfolding. No wonder that Mattis is an outright hawk regarding Russia. He does not doubt that Vladimir Putin intends to “break up NATO” and conducts expansionist policy in Syria, the Baltic States, and Ukraine. Mattis believes that Trump’s friendly attitude to Putin’s Russia is caused solely by his ignorance, and is going to open the eyes of the president-elect. Mattis believes that the Russian aggression against Ukraine in Crimea and the Donbas is a much graver and more serious offense than the current US administration and the EU think, in his opinion.
The next likely future member of the administration, named by Trump, is Mike Pompeo, who served as a congressman from Texas in 2011-16. With regard to Russia, he also takes a very hard line, including in connection with its role in the Edward Snowden case. Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Pompeo urged the US administration to put stronger economic pressure on the Kremlin and at the same time identified Putin as the person responsible for the crisis in Ukraine and aiming to subordinate that country to Russia. Meanwhile, Pompeo sharply criticized Barack Obama for weakening the US military. The likely new CIA director also suggested that NATO forces should be moved closer to Ukraine to show support for the Ukrainian government in its confrontation with the Kremlin. He said that Russia could employ the Crimean scenario in Moldova and Belarus as well. Among already announced members of the future American administration, Pompeo is rightly considered the most Russophobic one.
The most important and most unexpected of Trump’s foreign policy nominations has been that of ExxonMobil’s CEO Rex Tillerson for the position of US secretary of state. Unlike Pompeo, he, on the contrary, has a long-standing reputation as a Russophile. Tillerson’s track record includes a number of successful projects in Russia. He met with Putin on a number of occasions, received a Russian Order of Friendship, and is considered a personal friend of the head of Rosneft. Tillerson spoke openly about the need to lift economic sanctions against Russia which were imposed because of its actions in Crimea and the Donbas. After all, these sanctions forced Tillerson’s company to freeze nine projects with Russian participation.
However, Tillerson’s confirmation may have to clear serious obstacles. They have to do not only with a strong anti-Russian sentiment prevailing in the US Congress, and on a bipartisan basis to boot. Here, it is necessary to take into account the obvious conflict of interest as well. Naturally, if appointed as secretary of state, Tillerson will cease to serve as ExxonMobil’s CEO. But his links to the corporation are not going anywhere. And the senators may have concerns that Tillerson will act on the principle “what is good for ExxonMobil, is good for America.”
Another Tillerson’s drawback is his lack of experience in public service and, in particular, diplomatic experience. Therefore, according to reports by some US media, Trump’s camp is working out a scheme according to which Tillerson will be assigned experienced diplomat John Bolton as his chief deputy, who will manage the daily activities of the Department of State, including its personnel policy, while the secretary of state will just hold key negotiations with some of the most important foreign leaders. But Bolton is a well-known hawk on Russia. And should such a scheme come to be implemented indeed, the effective work of the Department of State will be virtually paralyzed if the secretary of state will adhere to a pro-Russian stance, while his deputy to an anti-Russian one. Therefore, one of two things will happen: either Trump abandons the idea of a new “reset” with Russia, which would probably be very much liked by Tillerson, or John Bolton fails to be appointed the chief deputy of the new secretary of state. If the appointment of Bolton still comes to pass, it will be a signal that Trump will be taking a more assertive line on Russia.
And the last of the already known national security and foreign policy nominations is that of former governor of Texas Rick Perry, whom Trump has nominated for the position of secretary of energy. He is a staunch opponent of the theory of global climate warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, the Department of Energy is not only responsible for the US thermonuclear weapons, but also serves as the chief instrument of implementation of the new agreement to combat global warming, passed to replace the Kyoto Protocol. Without American participation, that new treaty is effectively meaningless. Tillerson, incidentally, is also opposed to efforts to combat the greenhouse effect. And it might have been one of the most important reasons for his nomination for the position of secretary of state.
Trump himself, as well as the people who recommended Tillerson for that job, that is, former CIA chief Robert Gates and former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, have strongly emphasized that the main reason was Tillerson’s ability to do business in different parts of the world, and not his close ties with Russia and Putin personally. Whether the current theory of global warming is correct or not, international agreements which have been passed to combat the global warming are aimed primarily at global wealth redistribution in favor of developing countries in order to assist them in their development. Trump, meanwhile, will resolutely oppose such policies. And in the context of this effort, relations with China will be much more important for him than those with Russia.
Boris Sokolov is a Moscow-based professor
