The situation in the Middle East is rapidly deteriorating. Relations between Russia and Turkey are no longer merely hostile – they are on the verge of a large-scale conflict. And the conflict we speak about is not hybrid, but rather a classic one, with clear frontlines and deployment of every means of warfare.
During his visit to Kyiv, Prime Minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu called in vain on the Kremlin to understand that the Soviet Union had long disintegrated. According to newspaper Hurriyet, he warned Russia about the possible consequences of its actions in neighboring Syria. The prime minister suggested that Russia could “get bogged down” in Syria, just like the Soviet Union did in Afghanistan in 1979. According to him, there are three countries that have already had their territorial integrity violated by Russia: Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria.
The Russian government never really listened to sober voices. This is an unbreakable tradition of that body. As the saying goes, it is in carne, that is, in their bones. It is not surprising, then, that neighbors of that highly aggressive country are trying to enhance their security through collective efforts.
For quite some time, Azerbaijan and Georgia tried to build equidistant relations with major players in the Syrian conflict. It all changed dramatically with the beginning of the Russian invasion of Syria and the Turkish-Russian conflict. Now, holding to the middle line proved to be impossible.
Faithful to its style, the Kremlin decided to act by issuing threats against the two South Caucasus countries and Turkey, and to do it through Armenia, a Russian satellite state.
Russia granted Armenia a loan of 200 million dollars for the purchase of Russian arms. In the context of a rather complicated internal financial situation, the Kremlin provides its ally with an unprecedented bonanza. The loan’s interest rate is just three percent per annum. Moreover, the Armenian side’s payments “are not to be taxed in any way and are to be discharged without any restrictions, deductions, exemptions or compensatory deductions whatsoever.” Interestingly, Belarus, despite being Russia’s closest ally and the only other member of the Union State, cannot get a Russian loan on reasonable terms. The Russian government’s explanation is that there are no funds available. It turns out that under certain circumstances, they can be found, even though repayment prospects are very vague, taking into account the dire state of the Armenian economy.
The first item on Armenia’s weapon shopping list is Smerch multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), which cost about 12.5 million dollars apiece. It can be assumed that these MLRS and ammunition for them will be the main item of expenditure to be covered by the Russian loan. TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower systems are in the second place. The list also includes, among others, Igla-S portable air defense missile systems, 9M113M guided missiles, RPG-26 anti-tank grenades, and Dragunov sniper rifles. It is characteristic that the agreement’s contents have been made widely known, which rarely happens in Moscow.
Not accidentally, the disclosure of information about arms shipments to Armenia coincided with the fifth meeting of foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. They are held regularly since 2012. Previous meetings focused on economic and infrastructure projects. They were discussed at this meeting, too, in the light of Iran’s desire to join the gas route through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean ports. In particular, Iranian ambassador to Georgia Abbas Taleb said that the technical work aimed to enable transportation of natural gas from Iran to Georgia was already underway. However, security issues dominated the meeting. Georgian Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze told the press that the parties agreed to deepen cooperation on enhancing regional security and fighting terrorism.
The meeting’s participants were well aware of the Kremlin’s demonstrative desire to arm Armenia as a threat to all three countries. Moscow Gazeta.ru’s source, close to the Russian Ministry of Defense, said that the new arms shipments to Armenia might be intended to create additional pressure on Turkey. “The ability to put pressure on them with the help of Armenia will allow us to even open a second front, if necessary.”
Of course, in purely military terms, neither Azerbaijan nor Georgia are in a position to go to war with Russia, nor is it their aim. Nevertheless, they are determined to create a new geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus region, and thus solve the problem of getting Turkey’s diplomatic support and use it to somehow protect themselves from Russia.
For the Kremlin, this is a very disturbing fact in itself. Its satellite Armenia is finding itself almost completely blockaded. Should Iran, a very unstable Kremlin ally, join the joint infrastructure projects, not only Armenia will be isolated, but the Russian military base in Gyumri as well. All this talk about the opening of the so-called second front against Turkey is just empty rhetoric. Russia is bogged down in Syria and the Donbas so hopelessly that it cannot afford another one. Clashing with Iran is even more out of question. The Kremlin has enough issues with that country as it is. The list starts with the 70 million barrels of oil from reserves that Iran plans to dump on the world market in the near future. And this is without taking into account increases in its production capacity and exports, to come as soon as this summer. The first deliveries to Europe at a discount of five dollars per barrel have already begun. The Kremlin probably appreciates it greatly.
Russia’s protege Bashar al-Assad has grown, not without Iran’s support, willing to fight until complete victory, torpedoing the ceasefire agreed by Russia and the US. He is clearly full of gratitude for Russia’s support. A wonderful surprise, is not it?
The Ankara-Baku-Tbilisi axis has every chance to become a long-term political reality in the South Caucasus, and its influence extends to Central Asia as well, along Azerbaijan-Turkey-Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan-Turkey-Turkmenistan lines. This is another very alarming development facing Russia.
Due to the recent terrorist attack, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan postponed his visit to Azerbaijan. However, it will take place and can be expected to further strengthen the existing axis of the three countries. Russia is now effectively expelled from the region. Its diplomatic isolation increases.
